Wild Card NFL Preview

Since the NFL playoffs are here, and I am feeling pretty good about my analytical skills after my Rose Bowl prognostication (See Orange to Rose below), I thought the world needed yet another opinion on what would happen in the four games this weekend. Here we go....

Washington at Tampa Bay. The Redskins have been as hot as any team in the league heading into the playoffs, winning their last five by an average of more than two touchdowns a game to make the playoffs. Tampa Bay has also played well of late, winning four out of five down the stretch. Tampa is at home, which should count for something in the playoffs. Both teams sport strong defenses, with the Bucs actually finishing ranked #1 in overall defense (even better than the Bears!) for the season. Washington is banged up at some key positions, with both Brunell and Clinton Portis battling injuries. Ultimately, this match up comes down to experience at skill positions, with Brunell and Clinton Portis having a huge edge over Chrissy Simms (despite the Texas magic this week) and the Cadillac. Look for Washington to win in a hard fought, fairly low scoring affair.

Jacksonville at New England. New England is playing great ball as of late. Jacksonville is starting Byron Leftwich at quarterback, who has not played since November. New England has Tom Brady, perhaps the best, certainly one of the two best, quarterbacks in the world, who is 9-0 in the playoffs during the career. They have a huge edge in experience, and a coach who is universally hailed (except maybe by Stitzer), as the greatest coach in the world. New England is the home team, playing in the relative cold against a warm weather team. So why does this game make me feel like the sports guy is going to be sweating it out all night? Jacksonville never looks pretty, but you look up at the end of the game and somehow they have at least one more point than the other team. They are 12-4 for crying out loud! Who knew? I think this game is going to be much closer than people think. It will come down to the last five minutes. And if that is the case, it is just impossible to pick against Tom Brady at home in January. New England by 3.

Carolina at New York Giants. The Giants managed to win four of five down the stretch to hang on for the NFC East title against a red hot Redskins team (who beat them in Week 16). Carolina has been a psychotic team, splitting its last four games, losing two at home and winning two on the road. Lots of very good skill players will be on display in this one, including Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, Shockey the Punk, Steve Smith, Steve Smith, and Steve Smith. At the end of the day, I think the key to the game is what kind of pressure Carolina's defensive line can get on Eli Manning, playing in his first playoff game, while still containing (you can't stop him you can only hope to contain him) Tiki Barber. I think Julius Peppers, despite being a North Carolina Tar Heel, will come up with one or two big plays that will be huge in this one. In the meantime, I do not see how the Giants can control Steve Smith, unless he exhibits his trademark lack of control and gets kicked out of another game. I look for Carolina to win this one by between 7-10 points. Sorry, Coop.

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati. The Steelers seem to have found their way again after a rough November in which Big Ben was hurt and their running game suffered. Cincinnati has lost two in a row, including a home loss against Buffalo which knocked me out of my own win or die pool and about which I am still bitter. Cincy's big play defense has come up flat lately, and they have given up an average of 31 points a game during their 4-3 finish to the season. On top of that, Pittsburgh has a lot more playoff experience, since Cincninati has none. This is why, when you add it all up, Pittsburgh is favored by 3 on the road in the playoffs. When you look at it on paper, you should lay the points and take the Steel Curtain. But they do not play the game on paper, and despite emotion not being as critical in the pros as in college, I think Cincy has the skill players to win when combined with a defense with a hip on its shoulder. Cincinnati wins in a shootout.

So there you go. If you follow my advice and lose, I take no blame. But if you go with me and win, I want all the credit!!! Enjoy the football weekend.