Is Tom Glavine a Hall of Famer?

With news that Tom Glavine has a possible blood clot in his shoulder which could result in the end of his season and possibly his career, I thought it appropriate to ask whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Of course, that raises the general question “What makes a player worthy of enshrinement?,” the answer to which is too often a very good, but not great, career. In my book, to get a Hall pass, you must either be a 4th grader who has to take a leak or a professional athlete who is one of the best, not only of his generation, but ever, at his position. Since Glavnie has used up his eligibility as a 4th grader, let’s take a look at whether he qualifies for his pitching.

Overall, Glavine is a very good pitcher. He has won 287 games versus 190 defeats, for a very solid .602 winning percentage. He has a career ERA of 3.46, and a WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched) of a solid 1.31. He has 2,453 strikeouts. All good numbers, but are they good enough for the Hall pass. Let’s compare him versus some of his contemporaries who are likely and/or possible candidates for the Hall….

W L PCT. ERA WHIP K
Glavine 287 190 .602 3.46 1.31 2,453
Maddux 329 200 .622 3.06 1.13 3,148
Clemens 346 176 .663 3.11 1.17 4,564
Johnson 277 145 .656 3.19 1.16 4,506
Schilling 206 136 .602 3.43 1.13 2,992
Pedro 206 89 .698 2.77 1.02 2,986

While Glavine’s numbers are very good, they do not compare with any of these other pitchers, with the exception of Schilling, who was a reliever for part of his career, iptched for some bad Phillies teams, did not blossom until later than the others, and is a marginal Hall of Famer at best. Even when compared to a steady but not spectacular pitcher like Mike Mussina, Glavine does not have as good a winning percentage (Mussina’s is .642) or WHIP (1.18). He does have a slightly better ERA (3.64), but I would attribute more than the difference to Mussina’s pitching his whole career in the AL while Glavine has thrown exclusively in the NL.

But let’s not stop there. Let’s compare Glavine to Bert Blyleven, one of the best pitchers of the 1970’s and 1980’s who has come up just short of Hall inclusion year after year. Ironically, Blylven and Glavine have won the same # of games (287), although I give Glavine the edge when handicapping who is more likely to break the tie. Blyleven lost significantly more games than Glavine (250 vs. 190), resulting in a relatively poor winning percentage of .534 for the Twins announcer. Surprisingly, Blyleven actually had a better career ERA of 3.31 vs. 3.46, although I will call that a draw based on higher run scoring in recent years. B-squared also had a significant better WHIP of 1.198, and a superior 3:1 stikeout to walk ration (versus less than 2:1 for Glavine). Overall, these guys are fairly similar, with a slight edge to Glavine for better winning percentage and pitching to similar numbers in a more difficult era for pitchers.

Another measure that is considered for Hall enshrinement (and rightfully so) is how did a player fare in important spots. Glavine has the reputation of stepping up in big spots because he came up huge in Game 6 versus the Indians when the Braves clinched with a 1-0 victory. However, Glavine actually has a below .500 record (12-15, .444) in 32 playoff starts, with a 3.58 ERA. These numbers were surprisingly poor to me, although he does get points for basically delivering the Braves one and only title in an underachieving decade long run.

When you look at the intangibles, I give Glavine kudos for two things. One, I give him some points for his excellent “Chicks Dig the Long Ball” Nike spot with Greg Maddux, which is even more amusing now that we know Mark McGwire was a wretched cheater (to watch the spot, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRs60GZ1q1o). Also, I was watching a Phillies/Braves game back when Glavine had 191 wins (no idea why I remember that win total!), and dumb Skip Caray asked Glavine if he wanted to be in the Hall of Fame one day. Most athletes have been trained to answer that with a “take one day at a time” cliché, but Glavine looked right in the camera, and simply said “yes.” I though that candor from an athlete was refreshing. One more thing in Glavine’s favor: he was tough enough to be drafted in the 4th round of the NHL draft by the L.A. Kings.

Finally, one question I always ask before submitting my imaginary HOF ballot is “Did the player invoke fear in his opponents?” The answer to that question in Glavine’s case, in my opinion, is an unequivocal NO. His best pitch was always his change up (not like Cole Hamels, who has a great fastball and nasty curve to go along with his great change!), and he just seems to do it with great control, OK stuff, and always getting that call 6 inches off the plate.

In a nutshell, Tom Glavine was a very good pitcher who pitched on very good teams, and I wish the Phillies would have had him all these years instead of division foes. But he was not the best of the best, so if I had a vote to Cooperstown, I would not write his name on the ballot, even if he does limp to 300 wins. I just do not think he was quite good enough. That being said, I think he is likely in today with the real writers, and a lock if he gets 13 more wins. Which I guess goes to show you that they are giving too many passes, kind of like those 4th grade teachers…..