Early preview: Jimmy Rollins, Bobby Abreu, Brett Myers & The Fightin' Phils: Is there a reason for Optimism? Nah....

Spring training. Gotta love it. Pitchers and catchers reporting represents the coming of spring better than Punxsatwany Phil and speedos combined. It brings about a sense of optimism, as everyone is 0-0, and dreams are focused on playing well into October. When you are the Philadelphia Phillies and you are coming off an eight year reign of terror by the Ed Wade regime, you should be giddier than two twelve year olds who just got their braces locked during their first make out session. The new GM, Pat Gilick, is a proven winner who has built championship and contending teams in Toronto (where he dashed the Phillies last hope for a title in '93), Seattle, and Baltimore. He immediatelty doused a fire on the optimistic expectations in the offseason when he declared that the Fighin Phils were not yet ready to win a playoff spot. Ouch.

Full AL and NL previews will be coming just before the season starts, but for now, here is a state of the Phils entering the spring...

Offense: The top 2/3 of the Phillies lineup has a great chance to be as good as any in the league, and overall the offense will score runs. Some keys:

• Can Jimmy Rollins continue to be the type of offensive player that he was in the second half of last year? He enters the season with an active 36-game hitting streak. If he were to hit safely in the forst 21 games of the season, he would break the most unbreakable of all hitting records, Joe D's 56 game hitting streak from 1941. But lost in all that excitement is the fact that he still does not walk a lot, has a lower than ideal on-base percentage for a leadoff guy, and does not utilize a hitting style that best leverages his strengths as a hitter. It will be interesting to see if Jimmy can evolve.
• Will Chase Utley and Ryan Howard continue to grow as hitters. Utley and Howard have developed quickly at the major league level. Utley could become the best overall second basemen in the game as early as this year, and Howard could hit 35+ home runs if he can avoid the dreaded sophomore slump.
• Strikeouts. These guys all seem to have too many holes their swings, and this team strikes out way too much from the top of the lineup to the bottom. They do not seem to be able to play sound, fundamental offensive baseball. They do not move runners up, hit to the right side when they need to, put the ball in play with two strikes, etc. Rollins, Burrell, Abreu, Howard, and Lieberthal will all strike out way too much.
• The bottom third of their lineup stinks! Lieberthal, Bell/Nunez/Perez/Gonzalez, and the pitcher provide the opposing pitcher with an inning off. These guys are just inadequate to play at the major lague level on an everyday basis.
• Bobby Abreu. This guy puts up the most empty stats in the game, and that includes the choke artist A-Rod, who couldn't hit a beach ball in a big game. Abreu is a lock most years to hit .300 with 25+ homers, 30+ steals, 100+ RBIs, and 100+ runs scored. The problem is, when the game or the season is on the line, he disappears. He hit .241 in September last year when the Phillies chased Houston in the wild card, and his performance, while I do not have stats other than what I have seen with my own eyes over the past eight years, is that when the Phils are tied or down in the 7th inning or later, Abreu's numbers fall of the cliff. There is a reason the Phils desperately tried to trade him in the offseason.

Pitching & Defense: Jon Lieber, Brett Myers, Cory Lidle, Ryan Madson and Ryan Franklin do not a strong rotation make. Some thoughts:

• Brett Myers remains the guy with the best upside. He has the stuff to be a #1 starter, and overall he pitched pretty well last year (very well in spurts), but he has not yet put it all together for a whole season. He took exception to some of Gillick's off-season remarks, so maybe he is exhibiting some of the maturity and fire needed to put all his talent together to perform at a high level.
• If Myers could take it up a notch and be a #1, Lieber becomes a solid #2 starter (he is not a good #1 by any measure).
• The remainder of the rotation is laughable. Cory Lidle may be the worst #3 starter in the major leagues. The fact that he is the #3 tells you all you need to know about the #4 and #5. Ryan Franklin is a guy that Gillick probably signed based on potential he had when they were both with Seattle, but he has never been able to win at the major league level. A lot of people are high on Ryan Madson since he has pitched pretty well out of the pen, but I do not believe he has the stuff to be a strong contributor to a major league rotation.
• The one thing the Phils do have is depth at the starter position. Rob Tejada pitched pretty well last year by starting about half the season, and in my opinion should be in the rotation ahead of Lidle, Madson or Franklin. Eude Brito also pitched fairly well on occasion, and Gavin Floyd continues to have the skills needed to win in the bigs. I would bring Floyd and Tejada into the rotation, with Brito as the 6th guy if one of them falters. Let Madson return to the pen where he has proven he can be effective in the 7th inning, and tell Cory Lidle thanks, see you later, don't let the door hit you on the way out.

While the starters are average on their best day, the bullpen is below average and has taken a huge step back from last year. They signed Tom Gordon to be their closer replacing Billy Wagner, even though he has a) not closed since 2002 and b) has been awful in the playoffs the last couple years. Oh, and by the way, he is 38. At this point, anyone as old as me should retire! Some other thoughts on the pen:

• Arthur Rhodes was not a bad acquisition as a set up guy. He will be just as effective as Uegeth Urbina was last year, and his odds of being convicted of murder are significantly lower. Rhodes also has some experience closing games with 26 career saves so that when Gordon has a stroke or heart attack from old age, Rhodes at least might be able to step in. By comparison, he is a young 36!!!
• Rheal Cormier is also very old (he will be 39 in April - that is older than me!), and coming off a terible year with an ERA of almost 6.0, so you can understand why they are basically promoting him to a set up role (the 7th inning that Madson used to pitch). Argh!
  The rest of the pen (Geary, Fultz, Santana, Brito and Tejada if not in rotation) is uninspiring but adequate.

Defensively, the phils have some good and some bad:

• Jimmy Rollins is underrated defensively. He has never won a gold glove, but in my opinion is one of the top 2 or 3 defensive shortstops in the game
• The best move that Gillick made in the offseason was trading old, broken down Jim Thome (who could be OK in the AL when he only has to hit) for Aaron Roward, a gold glove caliber center fielder who will be a he upgrade over Lofton/Michaels.
• Pat Burrell has a great arm in left, although you would never call him a great left fielder. So he will butcher some plays, but will throw out quite a few baserunners trying to take an extra base.
• Bobby Abreu is the laziest outfielder of all-time. He loafs around and lollygags out there, shows no effort, and in general, is a worse role model than Charles Barkley.
• Mike Lieberthal may throw out a baserunner a month.
  

Overall:

Overall, the Phillies have terible leadership on the field and off. Charlie Manual, if he is not the worst manager ni the history of the game, is certainly in contention with other Phillies managers such as Nick Leyva and Lee Elia. His lack of strategic abilities is so evident that my 5 year old daugther can recognize his gaffes. She understands a double switch better than old Chollie ever will.

On the field, the Phillies have lacked leadership since Dykstra, Daulton, Kruk and Schilling left town. They have quiet guys like Abreu and Burrell who just are not the type of clubhouse presence the Fightins need. Utley could be that guy, but he is still young enough that he will probably have to defer to the vets. I think Howard and Utley and even Brett Myers could be the nucleus of a championship team that Gillick puts together, but their chances in 2008 are a lot better than 2006.

Predicted Record: 84-78; third place, National League East, no playoffs

Note: picture courtesy of www.phillies.com