Is Tom Glavine a Hall of Famer?

With news that Tom Glavine has a possible blood clot in his shoulder which could result in the end of his season and possibly his career, I thought it appropriate to ask whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame. Of course, that raises the general question “What makes a player worthy of enshrinement?,” the answer to which is too often a very good, but not great, career. In my book, to get a Hall pass, you must either be a 4th grader who has to take a leak or a professional athlete who is one of the best, not only of his generation, but ever, at his position. Since Glavnie has used up his eligibility as a 4th grader, let’s take a look at whether he qualifies for his pitching.

Overall, Glavine is a very good pitcher. He has won 287 games versus 190 defeats, for a very solid .602 winning percentage. He has a career ERA of 3.46, and a WHIP (walks + hits divided by innings pitched) of a solid 1.31. He has 2,453 strikeouts. All good numbers, but are they good enough for the Hall pass. Let’s compare him versus some of his contemporaries who are likely and/or possible candidates for the Hall….

W L PCT. ERA WHIP K
Glavine 287 190 .602 3.46 1.31 2,453
Maddux 329 200 .622 3.06 1.13 3,148
Clemens 346 176 .663 3.11 1.17 4,564
Johnson 277 145 .656 3.19 1.16 4,506
Schilling 206 136 .602 3.43 1.13 2,992
Pedro 206 89 .698 2.77 1.02 2,986

While Glavine’s numbers are very good, they do not compare with any of these other pitchers, with the exception of Schilling, who was a reliever for part of his career, iptched for some bad Phillies teams, did not blossom until later than the others, and is a marginal Hall of Famer at best. Even when compared to a steady but not spectacular pitcher like Mike Mussina, Glavine does not have as good a winning percentage (Mussina’s is .642) or WHIP (1.18). He does have a slightly better ERA (3.64), but I would attribute more than the difference to Mussina’s pitching his whole career in the AL while Glavine has thrown exclusively in the NL.

But let’s not stop there. Let’s compare Glavine to Bert Blyleven, one of the best pitchers of the 1970’s and 1980’s who has come up just short of Hall inclusion year after year. Ironically, Blylven and Glavine have won the same # of games (287), although I give Glavine the edge when handicapping who is more likely to break the tie. Blyleven lost significantly more games than Glavine (250 vs. 190), resulting in a relatively poor winning percentage of .534 for the Twins announcer. Surprisingly, Blyleven actually had a better career ERA of 3.31 vs. 3.46, although I will call that a draw based on higher run scoring in recent years. B-squared also had a significant better WHIP of 1.198, and a superior 3:1 stikeout to walk ration (versus less than 2:1 for Glavine). Overall, these guys are fairly similar, with a slight edge to Glavine for better winning percentage and pitching to similar numbers in a more difficult era for pitchers.

Another measure that is considered for Hall enshrinement (and rightfully so) is how did a player fare in important spots. Glavine has the reputation of stepping up in big spots because he came up huge in Game 6 versus the Indians when the Braves clinched with a 1-0 victory. However, Glavine actually has a below .500 record (12-15, .444) in 32 playoff starts, with a 3.58 ERA. These numbers were surprisingly poor to me, although he does get points for basically delivering the Braves one and only title in an underachieving decade long run.

When you look at the intangibles, I give Glavine kudos for two things. One, I give him some points for his excellent “Chicks Dig the Long Ball” Nike spot with Greg Maddux, which is even more amusing now that we know Mark McGwire was a wretched cheater (to watch the spot, click here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MRs60GZ1q1o). Also, I was watching a Phillies/Braves game back when Glavine had 191 wins (no idea why I remember that win total!), and dumb Skip Caray asked Glavine if he wanted to be in the Hall of Fame one day. Most athletes have been trained to answer that with a “take one day at a time” cliché, but Glavine looked right in the camera, and simply said “yes.” I though that candor from an athlete was refreshing. One more thing in Glavine’s favor: he was tough enough to be drafted in the 4th round of the NHL draft by the L.A. Kings.

Finally, one question I always ask before submitting my imaginary HOF ballot is “Did the player invoke fear in his opponents?” The answer to that question in Glavine’s case, in my opinion, is an unequivocal NO. His best pitch was always his change up (not like Cole Hamels, who has a great fastball and nasty curve to go along with his great change!), and he just seems to do it with great control, OK stuff, and always getting that call 6 inches off the plate.

In a nutshell, Tom Glavine was a very good pitcher who pitched on very good teams, and I wish the Phillies would have had him all these years instead of division foes. But he was not the best of the best, so if I had a vote to Cooperstown, I would not write his name on the ballot, even if he does limp to 300 wins. I just do not think he was quite good enough. That being said, I think he is likely in today with the real writers, and a lock if he gets 13 more wins. Which I guess goes to show you that they are giving too many passes, kind of like those 4th grade teachers…..

(Too) High Expectations at Notre Dame, Yankees/Red Sox clash

One year ago, everybody was wondering if Charlie Weis could recapture a semblance of the magic that used to be Notre Dame football. After all, the last time the Irish won a National Championship, previously considered an Irish birthright every 3-4 years, Steve Spurrier was the head coach at Duke. 12 months and one overachieving season later, the entire country is predicting that the Irish will contend, if not win, this year’s National Championship. Think back to three years ago now. Coming off a season in which rookie coach Ty Willingham won his first 8 games and took Notre Dame to a New Year’s Day bowl, people were predicting similar greatness. Two years later, Willingham was fired, and he never even lied on his resume.

I am not suggesting that Weis is Willingham. I am not suggesting that Weis is not building a perennial strong program (in fact, I think he is). I am merely suggesting that when expectations get ahead of reality, then disappointment is evident which in turn becomes unnecessary pressure on the coaches and players.

Before September is out, the Irish play Michigan, Penn State, Purdue, and at Georgia Tech and Michigan State. While they are immensely talented offensively, they still have holes on defense and lack great depth, so it is hard to imagine them coming through that opening stretch unblemished. It is a long shot that they will win the National Championship this year, and it is unfortunate if Notre Dame fans end up disappointed by this. Charlie Weis is building something special. He will compete for and probably win a title in the next five years. But it is too much too soon to expect it now.

While college football is almost here, baseball is here now and we are in the thick of some great races. This weekend all eyes should be on Fenway as the Yankees and Sawx battle five times in four days to set the script for either a great September race (if Boston wins the series) to one that could be over before it starts. My prediction is that the Yankees take the series, and pull away from Boston ton win the division by 5-6 games. They just have too much offense overall, which Big Papi and Manny cannot match by themselves. But that is why they play the games…..it will great to watch the American league battles as 6-7 teams fight for four spots, all to see who can comepete for the right to face the mighty Philberts in October. Well, maybe not. But you never know....

Shammond Williams sighting, Birds, Philberts, Koren Robinson, Decline of the Terps, and the Debacle that is Tirico/Theisman

I have not blogged (is that an official verb? It is now) in two weeks. I was working on a story about how it was based on superstition since the Philberts were playing well so I did not want to jinx it, when in actuality everybody knows that it is simply because I am lazy. But I am back, so here are my thoughts for today.

It is rare that I praise a Tar Heel, but I was on my weekly radio spot yesterday with former Tar Heel Shammond Williams for a little point/counterpoint on the Duke/UNC rivalry. I was so fired up to go with “Shammond, you ignorant slut!” right out of the box. But the guy was nothing if not a gentleman. He praised both Duke and Carolina, discussed how he respected Coach K, had trained with Johnny Dawkins, and that Duke/Carolina is the best rivalry in college sports. And he called me Dils, which ya gota love. Anyway, in the end, we simply agreed that Duke and Carolina were two great programs, both vastly superior to the one found in College Park, Maryland.

Speaking of Marland, former Terp Lonnie Baxter was arrested this morning for shooting bullets at the White House. I am glad to see Gary Williams is getting his kids ready for success in the real world. Could this program be any more of a disaster? Oh how they have fallen since winning the title in ’02….

The Wild Card race in the National League is simply a farce. The Phillies, who are two games below .500, are only two games back in the loss column. Are you kidding me? The good news is that this team should win the wild card. Their lineup is as good as anyone’s with Rollins hitting everything, Chase Utley being Chase Utley, Ryan Howard leading the league in homers and RBIs, and David Delucci providing an upgrade (that’s right!) over our dearly departed Bobby Abreu, who will continue to hit the non-clutchest .350 on the planet for the rest of the year for the Bombers. Not a knock on Bobby, but Delucci has more power (who ever thought that would be said 5-6 years ago), plays harder, and hits better in the clutch. The better news is that the Phils would play the beatable Cards or Dodgers (well, the Dodgers are not beatable right now, but it is August and they will cool off more than Ted Williams post-death between now and October) in the first round. And with Cole Hamels emerging into an ace, and Brett Myers and Lieber both throwing very well lately, who knows. The downside, of course, is that this all may mean yet another year of Jolly Chollie leading the troops….

I think it is high comedy that Joe Theisman raved about how Koren Robinson had turned his life around and become a model citizen and was one of the best guys ever and was about to cure cancer. And then 48 hours later, DWI. And flee the police. Just another example of how JOE THEISMAN SUCKS. Speaking of the Monday Night team, Tirico, as always, is brutally overeager in his babble, a typical example might be something like this: “Reggie Brown catches the ball for an 11 yard gain to the Baltimore 46 yard line. Brown, the second year man out of Georgia, told me when I met with him that his favorite color is blue, which is ironic as that is the color of the Giants, the Eagle rival. In contrast, his father Charles, who works in the mechanics union in Augusta, Georgia, is much more fond of purple, while the real boss in the family, Marie, the mom, is partial to yellow. Speaking of Mom, Reggie loves to eat her sweet potato pie, and was thrilled when she snuck some into training camp last week for him and his teammates. Something about that Southern cooking. Extra point by Akers is good.”

The Birds are quietly flying under the radar. Nobody is picking them to win anything, except Donovan McNabb who was uncharacteristically brash when he pronounced that this is a Super Bowl team earlier this week. I love it. McNabb seems to be healthy, and he seems to be winning his teammates back after last season’s complete debacle. This team is doing the right things in pre-season (still too early to predict championships, but the baby steps are moving in the right direction). Just have to stay healthy, lots of banged up players this early on….

All for now, I will increase the frequency, promise.

The Bumbling Phils....

You know the guy who does all those Verizon commercials and says “Can you hear me now? Good.” Do you think he is the illegitimate son of Henry, the telephone repairman from the sitcom Alice? And, if so, do you think there was nepotism involved in his getting this gig? These are the things I try to think about to avoid baseball…..

By the way, before we get started, you will not see mention in this space about any events that are currently happening with the Phillies that are exciting and intriguing for the fans. Superstition. Kind of like a dugout that won’t go near a pitcher when he is throwing a no hitter. So we can discuss such items if and when they end. So for now, we will have to stick with dissecting what happened in the past week in the front office….

The baseball trading deadline has come and gone. The good news about that is that football season is pretty much here, with the preseason starting this weekend and the regular season less than 6 weeks away! The bad news is that the Phillies gave up David Bell, Sal Fasano, Bobby Abreu, Rheal Cormier, and Cory Lidle, and got back 7 minor leaguers that either have close to zero potential as major leaguers, are many years away from sniffing the bigs, or both. Let’s take a closer look.

Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle for C.J. Henry, Matt Smith, Jesus Sanchez, and Carlos Montaserios. This was the big deal, the deal that the entire city had been talking about since last off-season. Would the Phillies be able to trade Bobby Abreu, and how much could they get for him? The more I think about this trade from the Phillies standpoint, the more I think this was a terrible deal for them. Yes, the were hamstrung by the former General Manager Ed Wade, whose horrible contract decisions (huge dollars, no trade clause) made Abreu less valuable than he would have been otherwise. And yes, the Phillies were wise to trade Abreu because a) he was not cut out to lead a team as he needed to do here, b) was only the third best left handed bat on the team at this point behind Utley and Howard and c) was making too much money that needed to be cleared out to sign/obtain other pieces. But this guy is a very good, consistent player. You know he will hit .300, get on base over 42% of the time, has good speed, and despite a power outage in past year, will hit for his share of power. He will walk as much as anyone, and will make pitchers work to get him out. Cory Lidle eats up innings, has pitched very well in the past month or so, and had several teams interested in him. And what do they get back by packaging these two guys who could make the difference not only getting the Yankees into the playoffs, but possibly winning the whole enchilada? JUST ABOUT NOTHING. The jewel of the trade is supposedly Henry, who hit below .240 this year for a low class-A team. In addition, he had 25 errors already, and yes, it is only August 1st. So basically, he cannot hit in the low minors, and cannot field, and he is the jewel of the trade. The other three guys may as well have been from a beer league softball team, as they will no sooner help the Phillies compete than T.O. will have a quiet, controversy-free tenure in Dallas. The funniest thing about this trade is that the Yankees actually convinced the Phillies to pay the $1.5 million that Abreu demanded to waive his no trade clause. Absolutely brilliant trade by the Yankees. Absolutely horrible trade by the Phillies (this is why I was hoping Cashman would tire of George and take the Philbert’s GM job last season).

Sal Fasano for Hector Made. This deal was fine. There was no room for Fasano on the major league roster, as Lieberthal is still a better all around player, and they had to make room for Chris Coste to get some at bats. The only issue I have with this deal is that if the Yankees placed value on Fasano, why not hold him back for a day or two and include him in the Abreu talks to try to pry better prospects from the Yankees in that deal.

Rheal Cormier and David Bell for Justion Germano and Wilfredo Laureano. I know these were two separate trades, but they are not important enough to warrant separate analysis. Bottom line here is that the Phils dumped two guys with expiring contracts. Cormier was pitching as well as he ever had this season, and Bell over the past few weeks had put together his best numbers in his four brutal years with the Phils. In return they got a triple A guy who has shown enough that we can predict with some confidence he can compete in Triple A but will never be an effective pitcher in the bigs. In Laureano they get a kid who is taller and skinnier than my brother in law, which is not easy to do.

And as long as they were dumping contracts, couldn't they get anyone (Sox, Sox, Angels) to take Pat Burrell, who will hit for power and could help. And Jon Lieber. Nobody? Ugh.....

Overall, the Phils gave up five major leaguers, got back seven minor leaguers and saved some cash. Now if they were able to effectively parlay this cash into good value free agent signings, I could live with the lack of talent that they got in return. There are two problems with that expectation. First, attendance will plummet for this season and next (Pat Gillick was already nice enough to say the Phils will SUCK next year, and that Jolly Chollie very well may be his manager), meaning that the owners will put some of that savings into their pockets instead of reinvesting it into putting a winner on the field. Second, even if there intent was to spend, who in their right mind would possibly want to come here, where they have no commitment to winning, a bunch of players with bad attitudes (see Cory Lidle’s rant after he got traded, or Billy Wagner’s from earlier this year), lack of talent, and an idiotic manager. The only way to get any players is to OVERPAY and offer no traded clauses, kind of like they did with Bobby Abreu and Pat Burrell that got them into this mess in the first place. Circle of life. Circle of failure.

The only thing I have determined from this analysis is that my dislike of Scott Rolen is unfair. I am taking the Dils hex off of Rolen (I will leave it on J.D. Drew cause he is still an ass), because he was right to want to leave! How long until Mr. Utley and Mr. Howard and Mr. Hamels make similar demands. This team is a joke, and the botched yet another key time in their history. This is why a team wins one championship in 123, going on 124, seasons. As Jim More would say, “they suck, they can’t do diddly poo.”

The good news is……….E-A-G-L-E-S, EAGLES!!!!!! LET’S GO BIRDS!!!!