Stitzer's Take: 2006 JETS: THE DAWNING OF THE AGE OF MANGINIUS?

Stitzer is back, and below is his somewhat objective (the analysis is solid and objective; in my opinion, the record may be a tad inflated, but that is why they play the games!!!!) take on the 2006 New York, J-E-T-S, JETS JETS JETS. My football preview, college and pro picks (2-2 in college in Week1), and some baseball commentary is still to come this week....
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All you need to know about the 2005 JETS was the following: the 30 minute NFL Films recap of their season featured 8 minutes on their new coach for 2006 – in other words, they stunk. To clear the book on Herm, I think he did a credible job for 5 years. It featured 3 playoff appearances, and continued the recent success of the Parcells era (if success is measured in terms of going at least 8-8 – hey, we are talking about a team that has not BEEN to the Super Bowl since 1968). Herm was 39-41 – it took last year’s awful 4-12 to put him under .500. Herm and the team had every excuse in the book; 7 players, including the top 2 QBs and 60% of the OL went down with season-ending injuries. But you know what, that team still had more than 4-win talent. They lost four games in the last minute. During a horrid stretch that saw them go from 2-3 to 2-8, they fell down by 14+ points very early too many times. Both of those types of losses are directly related to coaching: game planning & in-game management. Those are of two of Herm’s weaknesses. I love how the media gave him credit all year because the players “did not quit on him.” Your job as coach is to get your personnel to play hard – you should not get extra credit for that. What the JETS will miss in Herm is a leader; a father figure who was a player himself and commanded the utmost respect. I still like Herm, I am not going to be a bitter past-poster who throws him under the bus. I knew his strengths; I knew his weaknesses. Lets move on to the new hire.

Mangini is four years younger than me. I can finally say “this KID has no idea what he is doing.” Hopefully, I am not saying that too much. Dils & I agreed that this was a good (what you must know about Dils & I, is that we follow each other’s team with a passion – mainly so we can have some good arguments!) hire for one reason: we would rather see an assistant from a successful organization given a shot than to roll out a re-tread with prior head coaching experience. No way did I want Haslett, Tice, or Martz coaching my team. Why? Because they had proven negative qualities. Give me a clean slate any day of the week. Using the old “if you cannot beat them, join them” strategy, Eric Mangini, and his 1-year of Defensive Coordinator Experience, was hired from New England. Very simply, the JETS are trying to duplicate NE’s success by using the same management components: a Scott Pioli type GM who is more of a numbers guy than a football guy; JETS promoted their assistant GM & Capologist, Mike Tannenbaum, to GM. The old GM Terry Bradway was demoted to director of player personnel – which is his background and strength – he is the “football guy.” Mangini, simply put, is supposed to be Bill Bellichick. Obviously, that is an impossibility, just as we try to think Bellichick is the second coming of Vince Lombardi, he is not. And Eric Mangini is not going to be another Bill Bellichick. You know why? What the hell is winning 3 Super Bowls in 4 years about? We want to win the Super Bowl EVERY year. All kidding aside, let Eric Mangini become Eric Mangini. The best thing Mangini brings to the table is an attitude and a philosophy. He was a part of a coaching staff that led a team to a 34-4 record and two Super Bowls over 2 years. Those teams simply won every game before it was ever played. They attacked you in ways that the opposition could never fathom, and they anticipated a good percentage of what their opposition was going to do them. That is straight from the Parcells/Bellichik company handbook, chapter 1: we will develop a game plan each week & each season depending on who we have on our team, and who we play. New England must have laughed at every 2nd & 10 we had from 2001-2004 when they knew a draw play was coming. NE ran the ball every play in a drive against us last December. Why? Because all year long stopping the run was a JETS weakness and Ellis & Robertson were injured. Forget about “scripting” the first 15 plays – attack your enemy’s biggest weakness until they prove they can stop it. Many people have already decided that Mangini might be a good HC someday, but they believe it will be down the road after another Def. Coord stint that he takes when he is fired after 3 or 4 years from the JETS. The logic behind this theory is that Bellichick was a failure during his first HC stint at Cleveland from 1991-1995. That is revisionist history. BB inherited an old team that the expectations were too high for because they lost 3 AFC title games from 1986 (thank you for roughing the QB Mark Gastineau – you moron) – 1989. BB re-built the team, got them to the playoffs in 1994, beat his buddy Parcells, and them lost to the Lloyd-Greene Steelers. But, what everyone remembers was BB’s handling of the Kosar-Vinny QB controversy. And, there is no question he made the right choice by giving job to Vinny. The same buffoons were writing that Bellichick “lost his locker room” after cutting Lawyer Milloy & losing to his new team 31-0 on opening day. NE only won 34 of its next 37 games. If Mangini fails as JETS HC it will have nothing to do with Bellichick’s Cleveland stint.

Lets look at the fellows who will be donning the green & white for Coach Mangini.

Mangini will be bringing the NE 3-4 defense to the swamps of Jersey – or so we think. The JETS do not have a Jim Burt, mid-80s Joe Klecko (it is a crime he is not in HOF), or Vince Wilfork to anchor the nose tackle position. Actually thought they might trade down from #4 to draft Ngoti from Oregon, and maybe they tried to, but this 3-4 is going to be a hybrid with many 4-3 characteristics. The NT position will be a rotation with Von Olhoefen & Robertson – with the other playing DE – depending on the down & situation. Sean Ellis has the strength & size to play the other DE, and his speed should allow to him to force Guards to give the OT help and allow the ILBs to make plays. Gone is John Abraham – one of the best speed rushers in the league, who stayed healthy in 2005, made game changing plays, and was not given his long-term deal that was verbally promised. Word has it that the NE staff thought he was too one-dimensional and too big of a weakness against the run. Abe also supposedly lacked the pass coverage skills to play OLB in the 3-4. The linebackers are the strength of this D. Jonathan Vilma is a stud. He is such a smart & instinctive player that he will easily transition from MLB to ILB. The fiery Eric Barton, another 2005 season-ending injury casualty, will move from a 4-3 OLB to 3-4 ILB. The OLBs will be converted DE Bryan Thomas & 4th year Michigan man Victor Hobson. In my opinion, they are the key to the D – they are the Tippetts, Llyods, Swillings – the guys who need to get to the QB. Of course, first we need to put teams in passing downs – many pundits are predicting the JETS to have a porous run D because of the aforementioned lack of a true NT. I do not think anyone can know how this front-7 will perform until the games start – everything is pure conjecture. The secondary should also be improved from last year. The loss of Ty Law is NOT a big loss. All of the people who keep writing “this is a D that lost 2 of their top 3 players” (Law & Abe, with Vilma being the 3rd) from last year just did not watch this team each week like I did – because I am a masochist. Law had an “Everson Walls” type Pro Bowl berth – gambled a lot and made some picks. He was of no help against the run, and committed at least 7 penalties that resulted in 1st downs for the offense – a few of those were illegal contacts on 3rd & long – killer penalties. Andre Dyson was signed from Seattle, and while he will probably not have 10 picks, he should be a better all around then Law was. David Barrett is the poster boy for JETS cornerbacks the last 40 years – he will give up too many big plays because he has to give too big a cushion and is susceptible to the pump fake – all of these guys would have been great on the ’85 Bears when they only had to cover for 1.2 seconds. Justin Miller is faster than Barrett, but is an enigma to the new staff because his mind is not where his body is. Miller needs to pull his head out of his buttocks and take this job from Barrett. Erik Coleman is solid at FS. Kerry Rhodes is a question at SS – he may have to act an extra LB early in games to try and make teams think twice about the run. This unit arguably has better athletes than the NE defenses Mangini coached the past few years – but that means squat. The incumbent players are transitioning from Donnie Henderson’s aggressive/swarming D to the more cerebral read/anticipate 3-4. The real key to the D might just be how long they are on the field each week. And that brings us to the Offense.

Say what you want about Chad Pennington, the guy seems to be someone you want in a bunker next to you – you just might not want him to be the guy to have to throw a grenade more than 50 yards! Yes, Chad has a weak arm relative to the norm for NFL QBs. Weak in the sense that he cannot zip a line drive 30 yards downfield on a frozen rope. This was a problem before his 2 rotator cuff surgeries the past 2 seasons. Everyone involved in the decision to bring back Chad back in December 2004 should take a long look at themselves in the mirror – including Chad. Sure, it’s “gutsy” and “gritty” and also dumb to risk your career. Last season, he clearly was not 100% because he was rushed back. He appears healthy this year, but he has never played 16 games. He is smart, he makes good decisions, but he gets forced into throwing INTs when he plays the elite defenses. Pennington is a tremendous at using the Play action fake – he relies on this a few times a game to deliver a 10-15 yard pass designed to hit the receiver in stride against the grain to try and produce a big play without throwing the ball 50+ yards in the air – not his game. Hopefully a healthy Chad means that the “telepathy” he had with Laverneus Coles in 2002 will return. Coles is a gamer, he sacrifices his body, he runs precise routes, he is tough for the smaller CBs to tackle, but I am just afraid that Defenses are going to take a lot of his intermediate routes away as they do not have to respect the deep ball. The #2 WR was taken from Justin Mcaerins by Jericho Cotchery. Cotchery is a lot like Coles in terms of size & speed. Despite averaging 16+ ypc last year, and seemingly the only deep threat on the roster, McCaerins has fallen out of favor by the new regime. Look for rookie, and former Mizzou QB, Brad Smith to be used on some Randall-el type gadget plays. TE once again belongs to Chris Baker – another injury casualty last year. In my opinion, they should have never traded for Doug Jolley last year – Baker can block and is a better all around player. He will now get a chance to prove it as Jolley can run 3 yard curls for Hackett & Chuckie in TB. The OL was a nightmare last year. Even when all were healthy the first weeks, they stunk. Then season ending to Mawae, the all pro, center, & leader was the back-breaker. It forced Kendall to move from Guard to Center, which weakened 2 positions and was the best thing to happen to Interior Lineman sack totals in years. That led to Mawae being let go (supposedly due to $), Fabini, who was just awful at OT last year, although he did play hurt, not being re-signed, and then what had better be the key draft picks for the next 10 years: LT D’brickashaw Ferguson drafted at #4 & C Nick Mangold drafted at #29 (the pick we got for Abe). Berman & Crew were praying for the usual JETS fans histrionics when Matt Leinart was not picked at #4, but they would get no such satisfaction. Why take Leinart, who arm strength had been questioned anyway, if you cannot block for him? See David Carr. Both rookies will start, with the savvy vet Kendall between them. The rooks will take their lumps, but by all accounts, they will be productive starters for many years. Brandon Moore, a solid run blocker mans RG, & RT goes to surprise starter Anthony Clement who beat out incumbent Adrian Jones. RT is big question mark. Looks like #28 the incomparable Curtis Martin is done. Tailback is a mess. Neither Blaylock, Barlow, or Houston is going to get yards on their own – they will all be a product of the blocking. Blaylock, though the smallest, is probably the best at hitting the hole the fastest. How big will the holes be? How many holes will there be?

Special Teams should be above average. Mike Westhoff’s units are always good KR units. Seems that our PR is still undecided. Kicking game is solid with Graham doing to punting and Nugent as the Kicker.

In all my years as someone who bleeds green & white, I have had less of a feel for what this team’s record will be. If you go by last year’s winning %, the JETS have an easy schedule – on paper. If there is one thing we know about the salary cap, free agency era is that bad teams can improve very quickly. And, every team on the JETS schedule is looking at the JET game and assuming it is a W. Last year, in keeping with the little known curse, we should have known the JETS would not be better than 8-8, let alone the 11-5 or 12-4 being predicted. The curse is as follows: since 1980, when a member of the national media picks the JETS to make the Super Bowl they fall flat on their face; with the most famous being Jimmy the Greek’s 1980 prognostication which led to a 4-12 year. 1983 = 7-9. 1999 = 8-8. 2005 = 4-12. Obviously 2006 is not a potential jinx year. I have seen comments ranging such as the JETS are one of the 3-wrost talented teams to this is the darkest of dark horses in the AFC as the D is loaded with athletes. My call is somewhere in the middle at 8-8. Lack of an NT, learning a new system, and lack of a big play offense are too many hurdles to overcome. I think the 8ws will be: Buff, Mia, Tenn, Det, Clev, Hous, GB, Oak. 8 Ls = NE *2, Buff, Mia, Indy, Jax, GB, Minn.

For what its worth, Seattle is my pick to win it all.

Nitz