NFL Conference Championship Picks
I recovered from my poor wild card showing with a 3-1 mark last week, running my overall NFL mark for the season to 57-49 (54%). Only three games left this season, so here are my picks on the first two of them.
New Orleans (+2.5) at Chicago. Begrudgingly. It concerns me that every person on the planet likes the Saints, but I will take them anyway, as they have better balance on offense, and the Bears defense has been struggling mightily over the past two months.
Indianapolis (-3) vs. New England. THIS IS THE DILS GAME OF THE YEAR. The Colts are here, despite, not because of, Peyton Manning, who has one touchdown and five interceptions in his typical horrible postseason showing. But the Colts just have too many weapons for a banged up New England team, who could not even handle them in November in Foxboro when healthier. And clearly Bob Sanders makes this defense respectable. Look for the Colts to win this game handily, and not give Tom Brady the opportunity to make any late game heroics like last week.
After this weekend, I may have to start posting some college hoops picks, to see if I can have a winning record there in addition to my wining records in pro and college football this season.
Have a great weekend.
posted by Dils @ 1/19/2007 10:54:00 AM
6 comments
6 Comments:
Historically, when Dils and I are on same side in Playoffs, over the past 15 years, we hit at over a 65% clip (an educated on my part).
I like NO - but am now very leery because only 1 person I know has told me they like the Bears. I never like being with the public.
Strong like on Indy - over a very healthy NE team minus Rodney Harrison - will not get me crying a river because they have 1 freaking key player hurt. Seau not being there is an addition by subtraction as Vraebel @ ILB and Banta-Cain @ OLB have far & away outproduced the Seau/Vraebel combo. Seau has not a good year since 1998.
let the record show that Brady had ample chances to generate a TD in Q4 AND to ice game with a 1st down and all he (really the Pats special teams) could do was generate FGs. And, when his team fell behind, he threw a pick. As Manning has discovered many times over the years - it is pretty hard to come from behind on the road Mr. Brady.
A.J.,
You are 10-0 straight up in the playoffs? With all due respect, the favorites are 8-2 in the playoffs straight up (Ind over Balt and NE over SD the 2 underdogs that won)...I don't really see what skill, if any, your 10-0 record shows.
So, although you may be right in saying that the experts sometimes jump on bandwagon picks, I wouldn't exactly call you an NFL guru for being 10-0 in the playoffs straight up
There are also odds on each baseball series Ari - you cannot bet them straight up @ -100
Out of the 8 NFL favorites that won, only 5 covered the spread
Um, going into Week 17, 100 out of 240 underdogs had won their games outright (stat courtest of Sports Guy). How is that predictable?
Also, compare how most bookies do taking MLB bets as opposed to NFL bets. I bet you'll find that most bookies make a killing on the NFL but don't do so hot with MLB
Since 2000, only 1 #1 seed has won the the Super Bowl - the 2003 Pats.
2000 = Ravens, #4
2001 = Pats, #2 seed
2002 = Bucs, #2
2003 = Pats #1
2004 = Pats #2
2005 = Steelers #6
I think this is somewhat of a joke, and I am disappointed MLB has gome the way of the NFL by expanding the playoffs. Teams like the Ravens and Steelers should not have even of had the opportunity to play for the title. In baseball, it used to be that you had to have a "magical" season to win the Series. You think fans of the Cardinals enjoyed their 82 win season? An absolute disgrace.
AJK - we know you are a baseball fan, you do not need to belittle the NFL to get your points across. MLB, NFL, & College Hoops are the only 3 sports left in this country to care about - IMO.
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