Stitzer's Take: The Bronx Bombers, a Mid-Stretch Report

Back by popular demand (OK, by popular demand I mean me), my quiet, subdued friend Andrew Stitzer is back with his take on the 2007 New York Yankees. I will be back at some point in the next 24 hours (as early as this afternoon) with my college and NFL picks. Win or Die picks will also be posted here as soon as I have everything set up....
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I have always liked to envision a baseball season as a 1 1/8 mile horse race; the 9 furlongs are broken down into 18-game segments. With 22 games remaining in 2007, the Bronx Bombers are in mid-stretch, currently in the $, but staring at not having home field in the AL playoffs (not that having home field advantage helped them much in 2002, 2004, & 2006). Making up 6 lengths on Boston, to win a 10th straight AL East title, is a most difficult task. To have any chance at doing this a 3-game sweep @ Fenway 9/14-9/16 has to happen. And even that does occur, 3 other games have to be made up, and the way Yankees play on the road, it is very doubtful. Of the 22 games remaining, 15 are on the road, where the Bombers are 31-35 for the season.

Some of you may recall my 2006 post-ALDS loss column where I outlined what the Yanks had to do to win the World Series in 2007 . Offensively, it pretty much went to form as I called it: Sheffield gone, Rodriguez pulling his head out of his butt (and then some – he has been the definition of what an MVP should be – 9th inning heroics, stealing bases when needed, just a monster season), the rest of the cast contributing – but not consistently; more on that later. The bullpen, less Mariano, has been a train-wreck most of the season. Have never seen a guy with Farnsworth’s stuff get hit so much – 96+ mph with movement and guys rake him all over the yard. Mariano had a terrible outing in Oakland early in the year, gave up 2 squibs and a bloop in Fenway, and everyone is ready to write him off – never write off the greatest reliever of all-time until I say so. I had outlined that via a trade or FA signing, a front-line starter needed to be brought in to join Wang & youngster Phil Hughes as the top 3 starters, and then re-sign Mussina to join Randy Johnson as the #4 & #5 starters. Best off-season move was to dump Johnson back to the valley of the sun. 2nd best was to bring back Andy Pettitte (which I do not count as an FA because he was drafted by the Yankees and left via FA). After that, Cashman nearly cost us this season. How he could actually plan to have Carl Pavano as a starter? This guy plays less than the tight guy in your weekly poker game who only plays AK, QQ, KK, & AA. Thanks for 11.1 innings & 1 W Carl. Cannot really pin the Kei Igawa signing on Cashman as this was a scouting error, or maybe the guy just pitched like crap, who knows? But again, you are relying largely on an unknown – which is why I was against going after Matzusaka as well. As great as the anti-Yankee/pro-Boston media will have you believe Matzusaka is, his 4.11 ERA is .29 points higher then Pettittes. As for Mussina, what was I thinking? Branch Rickey’s old adage of it is better to get rid of a pitcher one year too early than one year too late is pretty darn accurate here. Mussina, unlike the next guy we will discuss, never developed a strategy to compensate for his fastball losing 1-2 mph per year since 2004. He maybe hits 88 and then comes in with off-speed stuff that must look like slow pitch softballs to the batters that have been feasting on him most of the season. But Cashman’s biggest sin was knowing all along that he had Clemens as a safety valve. Clemens was a guy who was thought to be done after 1996, and then put together some of his best season’s ever from 1996-2005 because he developed a nasty split finger fastball. But Cashman thought he was getting the 2004-2005 Clemens who put up great numbers in the NL. What he got was a 45 year-old shell of his former self; not a guy who was going to get 25 starts and go 17-3. Where Cashman deserves credit is his long-term plan of having the home grown talent play in the Show for the Bomners and not other teams. His refusal to part with Hughes, Cano, & Cabrera have pretty much saved this season. He must have laughed in the face of the Rangers when they wanted Melky and more for Eric Gagne - I would not trade Melky straight up for Gagne! You have a CF who has 12 assists, is a .295 switch hitter with some pop, and can run – you keep him. The most underrated star in the game from 1995-2004 was Bernie Williams – let Melky be 80% of what Bernie was and I will be very happy for the next 12 years. Also give Cashman credit for the Johnson trade – Vizcaino was awful the first 1.5 months of the season but has stepped up since mid-May. Ian Kennedy won his first major league start last weekend, and future staff ace Joba Chamberlain has yet to give up a run in 12.1 innings of relief. The future looks bright, and it looks bright with guys the Yankees drafted to be the core of the team – like it was 6-11 years ago.

Let’s take a look at how the Bombers have played themselves onto “the Bubble” (only 189 days until NCAA Tourney starts!):

1st furlong; 8-10. Were it not for the 3rd baseman, this could have very easily been a more disastrous 6-12 or worse start. Getting swept in Fenway started a 7 game losing streak that the Bombers still have not recovered from.

2nd furlong; 9-9 (17-19). This was a maddening stretch that was part to an 11 run outburst that resulted in a 4 run loss. Losing Phil Hughes in the midst of a no hitter was a killer as the injuries to starters were starting to mount. Hughes would be hurt in rehab and not pitch again until late August 5th.

3rd furlong; 7-11 (24-30). This is where rock bottom was hit @ 21-29. There were losses of 5-3, 4-1, 3-0, 3-2, 3-1, 4-3, & 3-2. The team was bashing bad pitching when they got their 7 wins, but not hitting when it mattered in the tight ones. The main culprits were Abreu, Cano, & Matsui.

4th furlong; 12-6 (36-36). The team finally woke up – thanks to a cream puff home stand versus the NL where the Yanks went 8-1. They peaked @ 35-32 and then went on a disastrous road trip which carried into the 5th furlong.

5th furlong; 10-8 (46-44). It was imperative to come of the Break hot with @ TB. Going 3-1 set the tone for the 2nd half. During the Break Torre was quoted as saying “we will go as far as our left handed bats take us.” An obvious calling out of the aforementioned trio.

6th furlong; 12-6 (58-50). Have never seen a team hit the ball this well for a 12-14 game stretch. The Bombers were AVERAGING over 12 runs a game at home. But you do not play 162 at home.

7th furlong; 12-6 (70-56). Actually got to 70-54 until I decided to go to 2 games in Anaheim. I stayed home for game 3 so the 8th furlong could start in fine fashion.

8th furlong; 8-6 (78-62). Take out the 3-game sweep of Boston and you have 5-6. Clemens is on shelf, Mussina is starting for him – yikes. Hughes tossed a gem last night – believe Hughes & Kennedy will be the key down the stretch. Team is 9-1 in last 10 games started by Pettitte & Wang and 4-10 in games started by anyone else. Unfortunately, you also know what you are getting from Mussina.

Prediction: 15-7 (6-1 @ home; 9-6 on road) the rest of the way. 93 wins and hopefully a date with Cleveland as Anaheim, aside from beating Bombers in 2002 & 2005 playoffs, is only team that has winning record against Torre since he became Yank’s skipper in 1996.