Friday, October 20, 2006

NLCS Game 7 Round-Up, Donna Shalala, and my Football Prognostications

I know people like Bill Simmons call the National League quadruple-A, but last night’s game was one of the more intense, exciting baseball games I have ever seen. My key takeaways:
  • The catch by ex-Phillie Endy Chavez to rob ex-Phillie Scott Rolen of a home run in the 6th inning was the best catch I have ever seen. Huge spot; 6th inning of a tied game 7, and he gets his elbow over the fence to make a remarkable grab. Just sensational.
  • Speaking of that catch, I am still in shock that that catch combined with Rolen’s subsequent overthrow of Albert Pujols by about 80 feet that helped load the bases in the bottom of the 6th for the Mets with one out did not result in a Mets win. If your team does not reside in Philadelphia, I am not sure how you fail to capitalize on the opportunity with the momentum that you have on your side.
  • I would much prefer a low scoring pitchers’ duel (1-0, 2-1, etc) that a 9-8 game. It makes every pitch more exciting, and brings managerial strategy into the mix.
  • Speaking of which, I thought both manager’s made several bad decisions last night, all resulting in good things for their teams. I guess that is why they get paid the big bucks and I write for free.
  • Scott Rolen, besides almost costing his team the game, has proven again that he is a big crybaby when he does not get his way. He did not like the fact that LaRussa benched him earlier in the series (despite the fact that he cannot hit and can barely lift his arm) and would not talk to him, making LaRussa make decisions on whether to play him from watching video. If I were managing, I would have benched him for the series and gone with Spiezio, so he should feel fortunate LaRussa stuck with him as much as he did.
  • Tim McCarver is really a bad announcer. I mean I know this is not ground breaking journalism, but it was awful last night.
  • How do managers argue about balls and strikes from the dugout when they clearly have no vantage point to tell whether a pitch was in the strike zone or not from there?

As we head toward the World Series, I was ready to pick the Tigers in a landslide until my buddy Eric Haron asked, well, begged really, that I did not do that. I tried to tell him that based on my 0-6 record in series predictions, I was long overdue to get one right. He again pleaded with me not do to it. So here is my analysis. Detroit has better starting pitching, better hitting, a better bullpen, and a better manager. With all that being said, just for Eric Haron, St. Louis in 7. Read into that what you will.

I predict that we will hear, ad nausea, during the next week, about Tony LaRussa’s close friendship with Jim Leyland, about Placido Polanco being an ex-Cardinal, about Jeff Weaver being an ex-Tiger, and about Scott Rolen being traded for Placido Polanco. I am not interested in any of these stories, as I am aware of all of them already, but I supposed the 15 people baseball attracts to watch the World Series who are not already fans may be. Hopefully we see some of the excitement we saw last night which makes baseball such a great sport when it is clicking on all cylinders.

One more non-baseball note before I get to my football picks. Donna Shalala, the President of the University of Miami, should be ashamed of herself for her under-reaction to her football team’s brawl last week. For a guy (Brandon Meriweather) to use his cleats as a weapon and repeatedly stomp on an opponent who was on the ground in a technique that was somewhere in between fighting like a girl and a pro wrestler, and then to only be suspended one game, is so ridiculous I was even willing to use a run-on sentence. The coach, athletic director, and University President should all be fired for their completely inept manner of handling this situation. This is an embarrassing black eye for the University of Miami what will stick with the team for a long time.

Now to my football picks. Hopefully some of you actually read this stuff and take it to heart, as I was 8-3 on my picks against the spread last week (4-1 college, 4-2 pros) and I am hoping some people benefited from those selections. Let’s keep the mojo going this week:

NCAA: (Last week 4-1; Season 20-20-1, 50%)

Pittsburgh (-6.5) vs. Rutgers. Rutgers is undefeated and a legitimately pretty good team. The linesmakers are making this line high, and I think they know better than most that Pitt, after a dismal second half against Michigan St a month ago, has started playing very well. Despite laying almost a touchdown here, take the multi dimensional Pittsburgh attack at home against a Rutgers team that has a great back in Ray Rice but an erratic quarterback/passing game.

Texas (-5) at Nebraska. Are you kidding me? Nebraska does not have the athletes on either side of the ball to compete with Texas, not to mention the coaching. Lay the points for the road favorite here.

Wyoming (-4) vs. Colorado State. Wyoming is a solid team that is not yet getting the respect from Vegas. Got no the Cowboy bandwagon before that respect inflates their lines for the last few games of the year.

Georgia Tech (+7.5) at Clemson. Reggie Ball is playing very solid, consistent football in his senior year. They have the run defense that can contain Clemson’s great rushing attack. More than a touchdown is crazy here. This is a close game all the way, take the points.

Boston College (+6.5) at Florida State. Note, watch the pregame shows, and if BC’s quarterback is not playing, change this pick to the Under 42. Either way, you will be bringing home a winner, winner, chicken dinner.

Couple of additional leans (not fully endorsed plays): Washington St (+4) vs. Oregon, and Arizona (+2.5) vs. Oregon St. Finally, I am interested to see if Duke can cover 17.5 at home against half of Miami’s team.

NFL (Last week: 4-2; Season 20-12-1, 63%)

Buffalo (+5.5) vs. New England. Still not sold on New England. Rivalry game and must win means we will see Buffalo’s best effort, which will be good enough to cover.

Atlanta (+3) vs. Pittsburgh. Two teams with good running games and pretty good defenses. Big Ben may be back, but his team is not good enough right now to beat a quality team on the road. Take the Falcs.

Philly (-5.5) at Tampa Bay. I thought this line would be 3. They are saying if this game was at the Linc, the line would be 11.5. I think Jim Johnson’s defensive schemes will give a rookie QB fits, and the Eagles can score in the 20’s on anyone right now. They will win by at least a touchdown.

Cincinnati (-3) vs. Carolina. I know, Carolina is undefeated with Steve Smith in the lineup, and Cincy has stunk it up for the last two games. I think they will respond with a great effort at home and win and cover. Carolina is coming on strong, but if they were to win, I would say they are the favorite to go to the Super Bowl from this conference even over Chicago. I do not think they are quite ready for that yet….

Indianapolis (-9) vs. Washington. Indy has been playing people close, but Washington has no cornerbacks, so look for a big day from Mr. Manning and company.

Seattle (-6.5)
vs. Minnesota. Minnesota is a couple of lucky plays from being a 10 point underdog in this game, which would have been more accurate.

NY Giants (+3.5) at Dallas. Did you think I was picking T.O. on Monday Night football against the team I picked to go to the Super Bowl from the NFC? Of course not.

2 Comments:

At 7:18 PM, Blogger Stitz said...

Miami should receive the death penalty - let this serve as an example to what will happen to your program if you allow thuggery for 20+ consecutive years. They should have done this when MC Hammer used to roam the sidelines. Oh, but wait, Jesse Jackson would own tbe NCAA by now if that happened

 
At 7:08 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Stitz,

Don't be slammin' Hammer. It was Luther Campbell of 2 Live Crew on the sideline. Campbell was the one to put the bounty on Rocket, as well. All Hammer ever did was to be the batboy of the A's (He looked like Hank Aaron so they gave him the nickname of Hammer).

 

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