October 3, 2006 Column: Baseball Divisional Series Predictions, NFL Obervations.

The baseball playoffs are here without the Phillies for the 13th consecutive season. But this is not the time to talk about the Phils, it is the time to look at the teams that did make the playoffs and break down the division series.

Detroit Tigers vs. New York Yankees. The Tigers were a great story all year, with Jim Leyland leading a group of kids that had never so much as contended to the best record in baseball for much of the summer. They faded badly down the stretch and lost their division on the last day of the season after getting swept by the mighty Kansas City Royals. The Yankees are the biggest benefactor of that collapse as they get to face a Tiger team running on fumes instead of Johan Santana and the Metrodome in a 5 game series. The Yankees in the meantime, have probably the best lineup sinve the 1927 Yankees. Damon. Jeter. Rodriguez (if he doesn’t choke again). Giami. Abreu. Sheffield. Matsui. Posada. Cano. That is truly the best lineup money can buy, and I think the upset in this series would be Detroit winning a single game. This lineup is simply too much for these young, tired, inexperienced arms of Motown. Yanks cruise.

Oakland A’s vs. Minnesota Twins. The Twins have just played great baseball for the last 2/3 of the season. This team might even be the favorite to win it all if Liriano had stayed healthy. Oakland has also played great baseball since the All Star break. But Oakland cannot ever get out of the first round of the playoffs, and the Twins have home field, where they are very strong, and they have the best pitcher in baseball pitching two games if necessary. Oakland has no room for error if Minnesota wins Santana’s two starts (both at home), so you have to favor the Twins to win the series, likely in 5 games.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres. San Diego has been hot, St. Louis has been colder than Pat Burrell over the past few weeks. This is an example of a team that is playing well against a team that has one superstar and not much else these days. The Padres have to be the favorite to win this series and maybe come out of the National League and get to the World Series. The key game in this series is game 1, where the incredibly talented but enigmatic Jake Peavy gets the ball for the Pads against Chris Carpenter. How can a guy with Peany’s stuff have a losing record over 162 games? If the Cards can sneak a victory in game 1, they can win this series. I predict Peavy will hunker down and the Pads will win Game 1 and the series.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. the New York Mets. Maddux vs. Glavine in Game 2. How cool is that? And what has gotten into Maddux that he is pitching like he is 30 years old again? I think the Mets are crippled. They have great offense. They have no pitching. I know El Duque has been a clutch playoff performer but this guy was not good enough to crack Chicago’s starting rotation last year in the playoffs and is now the Mets Game 1 starter. The Dodgers, on the other hand, have been streaky all year and are hot right now, and also have pitchers with lots of playoff experience. Look for the Dodgers to pull off the upset in this series.

While the baseball playoffs are exciting, we have lots of stuff going on in the NFL as we hit the quarter point in the season.

The Cowboys demolished the Titans by 31. The most amazing thing about this game is that the main storyline involved something other than T.O. Albert Haynesworth, after kicking Andre Gurode’s helmet off, stomped on his face, resulting in 30 stitches and a visit to the plastic surgeon for Gurode. Haynesworth was suspended for 5 games and may face criminal and civil charges in addition. I do not know if there is any truth to the rumor that the NFL considered suspending Haynesworth for the whole season but viewed the fact that the stomp occurred against a Dallas Cowboy as a mitigating circumstance. In the meantime, as soon as the game ended, T.O. was back front and center as the media began asking him about his game this week against the Eagles, where he is certain to be greeted by warm and loving fans. Lots more on the Eagles/Cowboy game toward the end of the week.

Staying in the NFC East, what has gotten into the Redskins? They have gone from an 0-2 team that looked worse that their record would indicate to a 2-2 team that looks like they could battle competitively in the best division in football. To put up 36 points against a very strong Jacksonville defense is no easy task. A lot of people criticized offensive coordinator Al Saunders for having more pages (700) in his playbook than ex-congressman Mark Foley (take a second, let it sink in), but it seems he is starting to find those pages that feature Santana Moss, who has had some streaks in the past two seasons where he is almost unstoppable.

While the Cowboys and the Redskins both look great, no player in the NFL has played better over the first month than Donovan McNabb. Those of you who actually read this blog know that before the season I picked McNabb as my Comeback Player of the Year. Through the first four games of the season, he is easily the league MVP to date, and barring a collapse against the Giants, this Eagles team would be front and center on everyone’s radar instead of still lurking just beneath the surface at 3-1. The game this Sunday could not be more important to this football team, who either goes 4-1, or 0-2 in the division. No middle ground. More to come….

If McNabb moves up a slot to the MVP, then Chad Pennington could take his slot as Comeback Player of the Year. The Jets are a much better story than their 2-2 record would indicate. This team really can challenge the Patriots for this division, as they are better than people thought and the Pats, despite looking great Sunday, are not quite as good as predicted. The Jets may be kicking themselves in December for their home loss to the Pats in September.

While the Jets are the feel good story around the league, there is no worse story that the Oakland Raiders. People said it could not get worse after two horrible performances in the first two weeks. Then the Raiders blew a 21-3 lead at home against an 0-3 team. Wow. Art Shell may not make it through one full season. And what happened to Randy Moss? The old Moss would have lost his mind and exploded by this point. Where’s the fire, Randy?

While Oakland has had a disastrous season, Cincinnati had a horrific Sunday. If you want to be Super Bowl Champs (which I picked at the beginning of the year), then you have to win at home against anyone, especially against teams like New England that have some great coaches and players, but are a notch below you in overall talent. So the Bengals promptly came out and got blown out of their own stadium. Not good times. And now they have their bye week. It will be interesting to watch how they respond in their next game. This is Marvin Lewis’ most important two weeks since he got this job. He has put them in a position to get into a position, now the question is can they rebound from this?

I will try o hit on some other highlights including college football throughout the rest of the week so check back every day, but I thought today should revolve around football and baseball. Enjoy the baseball playoffs this week….