In Philaelphia, It is Sunny Outside but Raining in Our Hearts

You go away for a few days and the world just does not stop. Besides Michael Richards going completely insane (and if you missed it, you can see his tirade by searching his name on you tube), a lot has happened since we last talked, so let’s get to it. Today I will focus on what is going on in Philly, tomorrow go a bit more National with additional focus on college hoops and football.

In a nutshell, it pretty much sucks to be a Philadelphia sports fan.

The Phillies started their offseason in completely unimpressive fashion. They missed in signing their key target of Alfonso Soriano, who could have provided powerful protection to Ryan Howard and a right handed bat between Howard and fellow left Chase Utley. So how do they make up for this whiff? They sign Jamie Moyer as a 5th starter, Wes Helms as a 3rd baseman, and Adam Eaton as a 4th starter. 3 years, $24 million, with a $9 million for a fourth year. This guy has been hurt for huge chunks of the last two years. He has never pitched 200 innings in a season. His ERA was over 5.00 last year in only 65 innings, and in his career it has never been below 4.00. He is a fly ball pitcher who gives up a lot of home runs and he is coming to pitch in a stadium that gives up home runs at a more prolific clip than the Eagles defense gives up rushing yards. It is starting to look like this GM is just as bumbling as the last one. He has basically made crappy moves and not made many good ones since taking over last offseason.

The Flyers are the worst team in hockey. They fired their coach and General Manager, then when the team played just as bad if not worse, they rewarded the new coach with a two year extension. What is wrong with these people?

The Sixers are 2-9 in their last 11 games after starting 3-0, and now have a guy in their starting lineup (Shavlik Randolph) who came out of college early before last season because he was not good enough to get the minutes or the touches he wanted at Duke.

And that brings us to the Eagles. Oh the Eagles. The Mighty Birds. This is the team that, according to the NFL, was the “gold standard”, the franchise by which all other franchises measured themselves (yes, he said about 15 months ago). On a side note, I thought maybe teams measured themselves against the Patriots, who have won three Super Bowls in the last five seasons, which is three more than the Eagles have won since the big game’s advent in 1967. This is the team that went the four straight NFC Championships and one Super Bowl from 2001-2004. Man does that seem like a long time ago.

This Eagles team is the most depressing of all. So close to the mountain top for so long, but never quite able to get to the only place they really wanted to go. And now, their fingertips, which had been hanging desperately to the edge for a while, slipped off, leading to a rapid descent that promises a long fall and no quick way back up toward the top. This team has always relied on a vicious defense to apply pressure on quarterbacks and keep them in ball games. This defense is now slow and lacks any teeth. It is the opposite of intimidating. The Indianapolis Colts became the third team in the last four games to rush for 200 yards against this defense. The personnel is either old and declining (Jeremiah Trotter, Brian Dawkins), or simply inadequate (defensive line, remaining linebackers). The Eagles just gave Mike Patterson a pile of money to stay with the club for eternity and he has basically been a non factor. But at least he has made all the team flights, which is more than we can say for Broderick Bunkly, their other first round defensive lineman selected in consecutive years.

At the end of the day, Jim Johnson and Andy Reid have lost this team. They are not able to punch the buttons to get the most out of this team. It is certainly time for a new defensive coordinator, and probably a new head coach as well. The problem is that the General Manager is the same guy as the head coach, and not likely to make a move on himself. Which brings us to the next problem. The General Manager has done a horrible job of analyzing talent. His draft this year was a complete bust. His draft last year was not much better. And he seems to let the wrong guys get away from this team (has anyone noticed that Derrick Burgess has led the league in sacks since he left the Eagles two seasons ago?

We could go on for days about this Eagles club and dissect every little area and find a lot of issues to yell about. But the bottom line is this: Philadelphia, there will be no Super Bowl title this year. There will be no Super Bowl title any time soon. And the window is likely closed on Donovan McNabb ever winning one. That fact is utterly disappointing to those of us who wanted so badly to break that 23 year curse. That fact is so upsetting since we got so close and winning one at some point seemed a foregone conclusion. That fact is the definition of what it means to be a Philadelphia sports fan.

Tomorrow, I will have my college and NFL picks for the weekend, and also talk through some college basketball and football items. Until then, to those in the city of brotherly shove, enjoy the weather and maybe a cocktail or two. You will need them to dull the pain.

Let's Start the Hall Debate. Dils & Ari Lay Out the Debate...

The Baseball Hall of Fame ballots have been sent out to a panel of National writers who will ultimately decide who gets a ticket for induction to Cooperstown. On a side note, I am not at all sure why I am not yet included in this group of writers. In case Bud Selig is reading this, please get me some ballots next year. But I digress.

This year is important year for Hall of Fame consideration because the big cheater, Mark McGwire, is on the ballot. I do not know what all the fuss is about, because this was a one tool player to start with. He could hit for power. That’s it. He did not hit for average (.263 career hitter), had no speed (12 SBs), was an average fielder (one gold glove at the easiest position to field), and who knows if he could throw or not. Now we found out from his embarrassing testimony to Congress that his power numbers were inflated by something called “no comment.” I was jumping for joy when this happened, as it will likely keep him out of the Hall at least for a while, and he would have been a first ballot guy, and personally, I did not think he was a Hall of Famer even if he weren’t cheating. Now Bonds is another story, but we will leave that discussion for another day.

By the way, if I did have a ballot, I would mark off four names and four names only: Cal Ripken, Jr., Tony Gwynn, Rich Gossage, and Jim Rice. Period. End of story. The Hall should be for the best of the best, and not guys that were pretty good for a long time, or great for a short time.

My friend Ari started the debate on the Hall, and here is what he had to say on the topic:
With the 2007 list of nominees now available - including, of course, Big Mac - what do you think about the "Boys of Steroids" being in the Hall?

Essentially we are speaking of six guys:

Bonds, Sosa, Palmeiro, McGwire, Sheffield and Giambi.

Yes, by the time the latter two end their careers, their stats will likely merit (non-steroid era) induction.

Personally, and you can start here, I believe you either let them all in or none. Most writers and talk show hosts agree, and most think all should be inducted at this point.

You can't pick and choose based upon varying degrees of suspicion or playing favorites. Personally, I like three of these guys and dislike the other three, so that doesn't ethically fly.

There are too may variables like who tested when, who testified before congress and who did not, who was injured then came back "clean," who can't recall how to speak English, who used non-detectable supplements and so on. It's too hard, and I cannot fathom how writers can deny these guys the HOF based upon such ambiguities, though I don't deny none of these players are fully kosher.

But again, voting "no" would open up potential investigations up the proverbial wazoo, and perhaps "no" votes in the future for the likes of Pujols, Ortiz, ManRam, Thomas, Thome, Clemens, Gagne, Belle, Bonilla, Caminiti, Jim Rice, Mo Vaughn (just kidding), and even Griffey and A-rod. After all, Raffy never exactly looked "jacked up."

So, share your thoughts. I need to go prep for college football's final four playoff between Florida, Michigan, USC and Ohio State. Oh wait, that isn't occurring. Well, there's always one sport cheating the fans WAY more than baseball.

Week 12 Pick Distribution & Individual Picks

Happy Thanksgiving to all. I hope everyone has a great day watching football, eating turkey,and spending time with family. And, of course, that you have lots to be thankful for. Here is the information for this week:

Pick Distribution:

Dallas 3
Indianapolis 1
San Diego 3
Seattle 3

Individual Picks:

Akshon Barclay San Diego
Andy Smukler Seattle
Brian Getson Dallas
John Abshear Seattle
Mike Hickey Seattle
Nomanerz San Diego
Rick Woods Dallas
Ron P Indianapolis
Ryan Kohrig San Diego
Vernon Lee Dallas

Bold & Italics signify second and last pick of that team for that entry

Ari's Take: Derek Jeter, AL MVP, Ryan Howard, and Chase Utley as the Philberts Team MVP

I just want to mention that my MVP pick was howard, who led the phils to more wins than cards but played in same division as mets. - Dils

But here is my friend Ari's take:

I hope I am wrong...but there's little to no doubt that D. Jeter wins the AL MVP in about an hour. The sports media, like the news media, is omnipotent and have been dying to give it to him for years. Of course, if Jeter wins, by the same logic, Pujols should have won Monday as Ryan Howard is David Ortiz, stat-wise and physically. It's hypocritical.

But Pujols won last year and the media, as many have said, does not like Pujols. The MVP award has thus been tarnished. Fairly, it these same writers voted today and yesterday on the same criteria, Pujols and Jeter should have won it OR Ortiz and Howard. But they pick and choose, so it won't occur. Mark my words.

I should note that I think Jeter should be MVP, Justin Morneau a close second, Ortiz and Dye DISTANT thirds. After all, it's the Most VALUABLE player, thus players who cannot get their teams to the playoffs (Howard, Dye, Ortiz) don't win. Jeter should win as should have Pujols. Jeter for his, as ESPN said "periodic contributions," and Pujols for saving his team's fledgling season and getting them to the playoffs...where they won the whole thing, mind you.

Many Philly fans, by the way, will tell you Chase Utley was team MVP and carried them for more of the season than Howard did, not to mention in the end, Philly lost to the Nats too often as Howard did not hit big game-winning homers as Pujols did so often the final week vs SD and Milwaukee.

Dils Win or Die...Week 11 Pick & Pick Distribution

Please note if you are still an active participant: PICKS ARE DUE NEXT WEEK BY WEDNESDAY, AND THERE WILL BE NO UPDATE THIS WEEK.

Good luck this week.

Pick Distribution:

Baltimore 1
Kansas City 9
EAGLES: 12

Individual Picks:

Akshon Barclay 2 Kansas City
Alberto Escobedo 1 EAGLES
Andy Smukler Kansas City
Ari Raivetz EAGLES
Brian Getson 2 Kansas City
Che Hong Yeung EAGLES
Cobes 1 EAGLES
Eric Yungner 1 EAGLES
Jeff Berman EAGLES
Jeremy Hare 2 EAGLES
John Abshear 4 Baltimore
Juice 2 EAGLES
Mark Lacarenza 1 EAGLES
Michael Hickey 3 Kansas City
Nate Pivaroff 3 EAGLES
Nomanerz Kansas City
Rick Woods 2 Kansas City
Rodney Thomas 1 Eagles
Ron P 4 Kansas City
Ryan Kohrig 5 Kansas City
Shane Kent 1 EAGLES
Vernon Lee 1 Kansas City

Note: Bold & Italics signify second and last use of that team for that entrant

Sixers, Flyers, Michigan St, Boxing, Nascar, and, of course, NCAA and NFL Picks

As I mentioned the other day, the flyers have been the worst team in hockey this season, so what do they do? They promptly travel 3,000 miles across the country, and on back to back nights win games, one against Anaheim, who has the most points in the Western Conference. If they win a third straight on Saturday night in the Shark Tank against San Jose, then we may have a story. Stay tuned.

The Sixers, on the other hand, have exceeded early expectations, going 4-3 in their first seven games (kind of tells you what expectations were to be exceeding them at 4-3 huh!) And Chris Webber is now complaining that he is not getting enough time. Webber is playing just over 30 minutes a game and is averaging about half his career average at only 10 points and change per game. A message to Chris: you are not good enough to play any more. The only reason you are playing at all, and not cut, or at the very least traded, is that you are scheduled to make $43 million between this season and next. You should kiss your agent every day and the GM that gave you that deal (was it Geoff Petrie in Sacto?) because otherwise you would be home sitting on the couch. You are playing on one leg. You are shooting way under 40% from the field. You cannot or choose not to play defense any more. If Jim Mora, Sr. were your coach, he would tell you that “you can’t do diddly poo.” So stop whining. Be thankful that you are still getting 30 minutes a game, and try to figure out what you can do to help your team win instead of complaining about what you are not getting to do.

Some great early college hoops as Michigan State beat Texas in the Garden last night by 2. Drew Nietzel looks like one of those guys who improved a lot in the offseason. He may actually be able to make an occasional jump shot this year and looks like a much better floor general than in year’s past. As for the early game of that doubleheader, Maryland thumped St. John’s by 32, but it could have been 50 (it was 37 at the half). Stitzer cannot be pleased with that start. It will be interesting to see if the Johnnies can bounce back with a win against a ranked Texas team tonight. I am thinking that will be a very close game.

Manny Pacquiao and Erik Morales are battling for the third time on Saturday night. If you are not a boxing fan and not familiar with these names, I can honestly tell you that they are two of the greatest pound for pound fighters of the last 25 years. They are true warriors. And they, especially Pacquiao, fight with such speed and precision that it is truly amazing to watch. They split their first two battles, and while I think Morales has been a true warrior and champion, I cannot see how he can defeat the stunning speed and power blend that Pacquiao brings with him from the Philippines. Do not be afraid to purchase this one on pay per view, as you will be guaranteed an action packed fight.

Look for Jimmy Johnson to win the Nextel Cup championship Sunday at Homestead. Johnson needs to only finish 12th or better to win, and after five straight superb races, only a mistake by himself or someone else could cost him at this point. The interesting thing about NASCAR, which has enjoyed unbelievable growth and success over the past 15 years, as that its popularity has plateaued. Only about 1/3 of the races sold out this season (granted, their grandstands fit more people than any other sport), and television ratings are flat. Two takeaways from me on this: first, their season is too long with too many races. Go from 36 to 28 races, and run the season from March through September. Then you will get away from so much direct competition against the NFL, and people can keep their interest longer and build more anticipation in the offseason. Second, this is another example of Disney/ABC paying too much to televise a property. They paid a huge premium to begin televising the sport next year. Soon, every sport will be on ESPN. Too much ESPN, too much Chris Berman. Make it stop.

Anyway, enough of boxing and racing, let’s get to the football picks for the week.

NCAA (Last Week: 2-2-1; Overall: 32-30, 52%)

Cincinnati (+7) vs. Rutgers. Letdown city. Look for a low scoring close game here as Rutgers will struggle all day to keep their heads above water.

Wake Forest (Pick) vs. Virginia Tech. This line opened at Va. Tech by 2. Wake is still getting no respect after beating FSU on the road by 30. Jim Grobe for coach of the year!!! Unless he let’s me down in this spot.

Vanderbilt (+8) vs. Tennessee. Rivalry game. Vandy knows they can win cause they did it last year. Ainge is banged up. Take the Commodores.

Michigan (+7) at Ohio St. The Wolverines front seven is powerful. They will neutralize OSU’s running game and make Troy Smith singlehandedly beat them. Chad Henne and Michael Hart will be able to put up points of their own. You already knew all this if you listened to my George Rogers appearance this week.

Kansas (-1.5) vs. Kansas St. Hmmm, a team that is not very good favored over a team that has been hot and beat the #4 team in the country last week. I will play with Vegas, Rock Chalk Jayhawk baby!

Maryland (+8) at Boston College. Another team that plays close games and wins them not getting any respect.

Cal (+5.5) at USC. The Golden Bears loss in Tucson last week makes this game too easy! Take it to the bank.

NFL (Last Week: 4-3; Overall: 32-25, 56%)

Indianapolis (-1.5) at Dallas. Peyton Manning. Tony Romo. Plus, we need Indy to win this week so they are unblemished when the Eagles shock the world next week in the RCA dome.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at New Orleans. Repeat after me…Dils is an idiot. I just cannot get off the Bengals, especially when they are playing a team about to implode.

Atlanta (+4.5) at Baltimore. Atlanta should be able to run the ball a lot against a banged up defense with no Ray Lewis. Enough to at least keep it a field goal game.

New England (-6) at Green Bay. I know I have been off New England all year as I do not think they are good. And I know Green Bay has been playing pretty well. But Belichick will figure out how to make Favre make mistakes and they will win and cover here.

Denver (-2.5) vs. San Diego. Tomlinson never plays well in Mile High. If Tomlinson doesn’t play well, that offense shrivels up like Costanza in the ocean.

No pick on the Eagles, because they are giving a ton of points. They should handle Tennessee. Jim Johnson should be able to design a scheme to contain the Titans simple offense designed for Vince Young. My guess is they will flood 8 in the box to stop Travis Henry and make Young beat them with his arm. Of course, I thought that against Jacksonville and it did not work out too well. This is a have to have for the Birds as they head into the brutal part of their schedule.

Have a great weekend.

Ari's Take: The Beauty of College Basketball, as Exhibited by the Mighty Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts

My friend, Ari Kaufman, is a huge sports fan who roots heartily for the Kansas Jayhawks when it comes to college hoops. He was inspired by last night's Jayhawk defeat at the hands of the mighty Golden Eagles of Oral Roberts to write a brief take on the state of college hoops and why it is such a great sport. Anyway, Ari, who is an ex-teacher, is also a professional writer, so having him write here in the space usually filled with my ramblings would be similar to a scenatio in which Wayne and Garth interviewed Walter Cronkite on their cable access show. Schwing. Actually, Ari just published his first book, which I have and am trying to read at the same time I get through The Camel Club by David Baldacci. I will have a book review on both after Thanksgiving. Anyway, Ari's take is below.

And if you are looking for my Duke basketball preview, it was posted earlier today and is the post directly under this one...
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Those of you who post comments or read them may have noticed that I am a big Kansas hoops fan. Unlike all my other favorite teams however, I have no family in the Sunflower State, nor did I ever live nor attend school there. I have visited Lawrence twice though, but only during the summer and hence, no game, although I did go inside Phog Allen, which is as magnificent as any old arena in the country, including Hinkle Fieldhouse (Butler's home) here in Indianapolis.

The Jayhawks choked in a major way the past two NCAA tournaments, and did so again last night in a home game with Mid-Continent Conference power, Oral Roberts. This year's squad, still very young, was ranked #1 pre-season by Sports Illustrated and seemingly bought the jinx quickly. (Not that anyone at SI knew much about college hoops back in September when they made their rankings.)

However, this is not a proclamation that KU is soft, over-rated, overly-confident, etc. Rather, Oral Roberts is an NCAA tourney squad, a perennial conference winner, who has players that are cohesive and (literally) stay together, like most mid-majors, for four years. We saw this last year with Bradley, Wichita State and, of course, George Mason. We've seen it with the Bucknells, NC-Wilmingtons, Xaviers and Alabama-Birminghams of the world too. I saw it in person Tuesday night at Conseco Fieldhouse when "mid-major" Butler, picked for SIXTH (out of eight) in the Horizon League, came from double digits down with their best player on the bench, to beat Indiana, in front of 10,000 stunned Hoosier fans. They should not have been stunned if they'd been paying attention the past few years.

Due to numerous factors - most notably the "major" teams shuffling in new players faster than the Oakland Raiders offense goes three and out - pretty much anyone can play with (not necessarily beat) anyone on any given night. One in four games might result in a blowout, but as you can tell via the Vegas lines, most fans understand there is, as I tell my friends often, no "different level of play" between, say, a Cal-Berkeley and a San Jose State. There really isn't.

Dan Patrick pointed out today on ESPN Radio that Idaho State (lower level Big Sky team) took Marquette to overtime, and even Winthrop gave #1 UNC a good game last night in Charlotte. Heck, I believe Georgia Southern (of the MEAC or SWAC or Southern Conference -- one of the worst conferences in Division One) led Duke at halftime the other night. (Editor's Note: Georgia Southern played Duke tough in the first half, but was actuallytrailnig 38-32 when DeMarcus Nelson hit a three at the buzzer).

This is what makes college basketball spectacular.

Oh, and having a playoff system/postseason tourney - and the best one on the planet - is beneficial as well.

The 2006-2007 Duke Blue Devils: A Preview

The 2006-07 Duke Blue Devils basketball squad promises to be a completely different team than America is used to seeing. I do not recall a Duke team flying so far under the radar of media attention in recent memory. The team currently sits at #10 in the National rankings, and I have not heard a single media member talk about the Dukies when discussing the National landscape. Of course, you never hear much about Oral Roberts, but they knocked off #3 Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse last night, which is what makes college athletics so spectacular, but I digress. Sticking to the task at hand, let’s take a look at what to expect from Duke this season.

Duke is as young as it has been since Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, Jay Bilas, David Henderson and Weldon Williams were freshman during the 1982-83 campaign. This team features a 10-man playing rotation of a single junior, five sophomores and four freshmen. With youth comes energy but also comes inexperience and mistakes. Look for this Duke squad to make more than its fair share, especially early in the season with a very tough schedule that includes Air Force, either Marquette or Texas Tech, Indiana, Georgetown, and Gonzaga all on the docket before Christmas.

While Duke has less experience than in years past, it has the most athleticism it has had in quite a while. Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson, Jr. are two freshmen that will provide instant athletic ability. In addition, David McClure is back from a redshirt season, and Josh McRoberts is an exceptional athlete for a big man. The best athlete on the squad, of course, is junior DeMarcus Nelson, who appears to be healthy for the first time in his three year career, and is in phenomenal physical condition after working out with a Navy Seal this summer. These players will enable Duke to do some things on both ends of the floor and in transition that it was unable to do in years past.

Through two games you can’t make too many conclusions, especially when the competition is Columbia and Georgia Southern. However, it appears that this team has improved defensively, with both of its first two opponents shooting in the 30% neighborhood on its field goal attempts. The aforementioned athleticism combined with strong depth this year should help in that area. In addition, they have many interchangeable parts defensively that gives the team many options with how to guard other team’s best players, etc.

One defensive question mark revolves around Greg Paulus. The only point guard on the roster, Paulus is coming back from a foot injury (or, as Dave Wannstedt and subsequently everyone involved with football would now say, “coming back from a foot”). He was ahead of schedule in his return, so he may not yet be 100%, but even when completely healthy he simply does not have the lateral quickness to stop penetration. My guess is that the Devils will attempt to solve this problem by running waves of defenders at opposing points, including Nelson and David McClure, who looks to be much improved over his Freshman campaign two years ago. While Paulus is an excellent passer who sees the floor extremely well, and a good leader on the court, he is a defensive liability.

Duke has more size than it has enjoyed in the recent past as well, with the surprising ready-for-college game that seven footer Brian Zoubek brings to the table. When you put Zoubek on the floor with McRoberts and Lance Thomas, the result is a bigger front line than Duke has enjoyed often times in years past. If they can combine strong team defense with this size, the Devils should be a better rebounding team than in past years, when they were often outboarded by opponents.

Watching Duke play against Georgia Southern the other night, one of the things that stands out is that this team, which has been extremely reliant on the three point shot for many years, especially during the last four with J.J. Redick firing them up at warp speed, does not shoot many threes. This team seems to be content with a more balanced attack that includes more inside play, more dribble penetration, and using the three as simply one weapon in a broader arsenal. Jon Scheyer, the 6’5” freshman out of Northbrook, IL, does seem to possess the sweet shooting touch that will enable Duke to make a strong percentage of the threes it does take.

One problem that Duke faces is that they only have one point guard on the roster. This will be an issue if Paulus gets hurt again, if he gets in foul trouble, or if Duke cannot compensate for the previously mentioned defensive liabilities that he brings to the floor. They have plenty of other guys who can bring the ball up the floor, especially Scheyer and McRoberts. They will struggle in cases where a team has the quickness to apply defensive pressure while offensively taking advantage of Paulus’ defensive issues. A good indication of how big this issue will be for the Devils this year could come as early as next Tuesday, if Duke gets by Air Force (who demolished Stanford last night) and Marqueet beats Texas Tech. Dominic James will give this team all they can handle with his quickness and offensive abilities. It will be interesting to watch if Duke can slow a team like this down enough to win (Personally, early in the season, I would make Duke an underdog if this matchup becomes a reality on a neutral court in Kansas City)

Josh McRoberts is a guy that generates almost as much hatred with non-Duke fans as Paulus. He appeared on projected lottery lists for the NBA draft last year if he would have decided to come out early, and was on at least one pre-season All America list this season. People that do not like Duke (i.e., most of America) really go nuts when they see this kind of acclaim for a kid who did not do a whole lot in his Freshman year except to show flashes of incredible talent. Duke fans react by saying he was a #3 or 4 option last year.

McRoberts has undeniable skills. He can handle and pass the ball better than any big man in the college game today. He can display a soft shooting touch at times, and he has good athletic skills that allow him to play good defense, especially help side. But what McRoberts really has to show if he wants to quiet his many critics is an ability to thrive as a #1 option, the ability to score consistently both inside and outside, especially the former, and to be the go to guy in crunch time.

Again, you cannot make too many judgments by watching two games against inferior competition, but, as a Duke guy, I am concerned with what I have seen from McRoberts so far. He just does not seem to have the ability to score easily from the inside, and he is not putting the team on his back and leading. I am not saying he cannot do that when the competition picks up, but I would have liked to have seen more in the early going.
While McRoberts has not been overly impressive in the early going, DeMarcus Nelson has indeed lived up to the hype. He is in tremendous condition, and he has the athletic skills to lock down an opposing point guard or, just as effectively, rebound with the big boys. In fact, he is the best “inch-for-inch” rebounder I have ever seen wear a Duke uniform. He can also hit the three or effectively take it to the hole. Nelson’s only weakness is questionable decision making at times. If he can stay healthy all season and cut down on mental errors, this guy could be an All-ACC performer and make a huge difference for Duke.

The Freshmen look to be the real deal. Henderson and Thomas are great athletes and will be strong wing players who can score and play great defense. Scheyer is the best pure shooter on the team, and Zoubek is the biggest surprise of all. He was expected to be somewhat of a project when he came to campus, but he appears like he will be a solid contributor all season.

Outlook. When you root for or play for Duke, anything less than a Final Four Appearance and possible National Championship is considered a disappointment. This year, the expectations have changed, at least at the beginning of the season. As with most young, talented teams, Duke will probably lose a game or two that they clearly should win, but probably surprise a team or two along the way as well (if winning any game can be too much of a surprise when you are the #10 team in the country).

It will be interesting to watch how this team gels and comes together during the next three months as it prepares for March. Can I see the team winning it all or getting to the Final Four? In a year when Oral Roberts can win at Kansas, it is possible with their talent, but not likely. I do think they have a chance to extend their consecutive Sweet 16 appearances to 10 straight in March, which does not seem all that impressive until you realize that no school in the country other than Duke has a longer current streak than two.

The team will be exciting to watch (and probably for Coach K to coach), and probably maddening at times. Maybe, just maybe, America will see Duke in more of an underdog role and start to root for the Devils as it was during the mid and late-80s. But probably not.

Floyd Mayweather's Swan Song, Brunell and Matt Millen on their Way Out, Bowden Should Leave Soon, & Just to Rile Stitzer, Baseball Needs a Salary Cap

Let me start with a couple of housekeeping notes. I was going to write about Duke basketball, but decided I will do a separate preview on the Dukies in the next day or two. Next, my appearance on today’s George Rogers Show is up and posted at www.georgerogersradio.com. My segment is the last 15 minute segment of the show. Now, onto my thoughts for today…

“Pretty Boy” Floyd Mayweather and Oscar De La Hoya have signed to fight in May. This is the best fight Mayweather could possibly schedule in that a) it will yield the most money for him (minimum $10 million) and b) it is a fight that he is virtually guaranteed to win. If he retires as he claims after this fight, he is bound to go down as one of the best fighters ever. This fight will draw a ton of interest. De La Hoya is as big a name as the sport has, despite being a good but not great fighter. In addition, the Golden Boy is trained by the Pretty Boy’s father. Bottom line, lots of people will buy the pay per view, but this will be a one sided affair, as Floyd is way too quick for Oscar, and will bruise that face before knocking him out and going out of top. Personally, I would rather see Mayweather go out by fighting Winky Wright, a more unorthodox but better fighter than De Lay Hoya who could give Floyd all he could handle.

Speaking of mismatches, the Eagles demolished the Redskins on Sunday, ending the Mark Brunell era in Washington, and in all likelihood in the NFL in general. I argued on the George Rogers Show last week that the ‘Skins should go to Campbell, as it is clear they are going nowhere this season. They need to get the former Auburn star some game action to a) prove to themselves he can lead this team in the future, and b) so that, if that is the case, he gets valuable playing time so he is less green when next season rolls around. That is why Joe Gibbs is a Hall of Famer. It only took him one more week than it took me to figure all this out.

Word out of Detroit is that Matt Millen is on his way out as Lions President. I find this shocking. Here is a guy that was clearly the most inept sports executive West of the New York Knicks, and yet he has somehow kept his job. He is on his 3rd coach in 6 years. He has mangled the draft by picking bad players in the same positions over and over again. His teams all stink on the field. The only good part about having him in this job is that we do not have to listen to him in the broadcast booth, where like in his current role, he is not good, but somehow he is overrated in that capacity. Anyway, he has been awful since day 1, but somehow the rich, out of touch owner of the Lions gave him an extension before last season, proving beyond a reason of a doubt that Millen had blackmail materials that he was holding over WC Ford’s head. What a year for sports fans from Michigan: the Tigers had a fantastic season and went to the World Series out of nowhere, the Wolverines are playing in the biggest football game of the century on Saturday, and now the Lions are finally doing the right thing and getting rid of this cancer.

Quick switch of gears to hockey. The Flyers have played 17 games. They have won 3. This is a franchise that has not won a Stanley Cup for 31 years, but were ALWAYS in contention. What changed? Among other things about the game itself, the league implemented a salary cap last year. Now you cannot just outspend and be competitive any more. Sound familiar? Yes, that is right, this is why baseball needs a salary cap. So that you cannot outspend other teams and be competitive. Level the playing field. I am not, by the way, saying the Yankees would go from annual contender to winning 3 of 17 games if baseball implemented a salary cap. In fact, I think the Bombers could compete just fine under that scenario. They have a sound general manager, which, in fact, would put them at a distinct advantage against their biggest competitor, who is run by an overrated dope, Theo Epstein, who has made many more poor decisions than good ones, but who has a free pass because he happened to win one World Series. No, my point is that they should add skill to the equation in place of blind spending, and add a salary cap. Let the teams with the best organizations, not the deepest pockets, win. America would not root against the New York Yankees so much in this scenario.

If there were an award handed out in the NFL for “Worst Coach of the Year”, how could you not give the award to Marvin Lewis this year? This guy got a lot of credit for turning this team around over the last couple of years, and rightfully so. But this team had so much talent coming into this year that I, in my infinite wisdom, selected then to win the Super Bowl. And I am a genius (this is what I learned to say when I attended Bill Belichick’s Executive Management program this year!). Not only have the Bengals lost three straight games this year, but they have blew a 21-point lead (that they had twice) last week and gave up 42 second half points to the Chargers last week. Duke does not even give up 42 points in a half. I would jump off the Bungle bandwagon but, at this point, I am the only one left on it, so there is lots of room to stretch out and recline.

Is anybody else of the opinion that Bobby Bowden’s team has quit on him? In the past I have gone on record that I am a huge fan of what Wake Forest has accomplished this year (Grobe was one of my three deserving coach of the year candidates in my 11/8 post). But how can Florida St, with their magnificent stable of blue chip prospects and splendid athletes, lose at home by 30 to a team that cannot even recruit the Seminole leftovers. Wake has to take NC St and South Carolina leftovers. But they thumped the Seminoles by 30. I recognize that Bobby Bowden is desperate to hold off Joe Paterno and die as the winningest coach in Division 1A history (which is a joke since 11 of his wins came at Samford, which is not 1A but which somehow count), but Joe’s teams are still competitive (#3 in country last year, respectable and competitive this year), while the ‘Noles have fallen off the cliff.

I am rooting for Rutgers to run the table and go undefeated this season. It is just a fantastic story. But more than that, college football needs Rutgers to go undefeated. Because if they go undefeated, they are going to get screwed, and not get to play for the National Championship. And that will make the voices clamoring for a playoff a little louder, maybe just loud enough to create change. We need a playoff, but clearly the bureaucrats in charge lack the guts, the foresight and the creativity to make that a reality. If the Scarlet Knights can pull this off, the Championship game should be called the Rutgers Bowl from here on out. To illustrate how much of a no brainer a playoff system is, think about how ridiculous the following would be: imagine if someone suggested that college basketball needed to change their system and get rid of the NCAA Tournament and just have a bunch of individual game matchups for the best teams, and the Champion would be decided by a single game between the top two rated teams in the country at the end of the season. People would clearly have the person that made said suggestion committed to an insane asylum. The same principles are in place in college football. Fans would overwhelmingly support it, the idea would make a ton of money, and we would have a real National Champion. GO RUTGERS.

Dils Win or Die Week 10; Pick Distribution and Individual Picks

Distribution:

Atlanta 10

Baltitmore 5

Carolina 8

Dallas 2

Denver 3

Detroit 2

Indy 4

Jacksonville 25

New England 3

Picks:

Akshon Barclay 2 Denver

Alberto Escobedo 1 Indianapolis

Amol Dixit 5 Jacksonville

Andy Smukler Carolina

Ari Raivetz Dallas

Brady Boss 1 Jacksonville

Brent Bryant Jacksonville

Brian Ellis 4 Jacksonville

Brian Getson 2 Carolina

Brian Harris 4 Atlanta

Che Hong Yeung Denver

Chris Bassi 1 Atlanta

Cobes 1 Denver

D Froney 2 Jacksonville

D Neifer…NOW ADIN Jacksonville

Darren Dahlman 1 New England

Dave Holdsworth 2 Jacksonville

Dave Robbins 1 Atlanta

Dave S 2 Jacksonville

DFroney..NOW R BYRON Atlanta

Ed Welsh 2 Jacksonville

Eric Yungner 1 Carolina

Fenlin/Stern 1 Jacksonville

Gabe Bodhi 2 Jacksonville

George Triano Jacksonville

Jack Marshall 1 Jacksonville

James Mills 2 New England

Jeff Berman Carolina

Jeff Saito Jacksonville

Jeff Slovin 2 Atlanta

Jeremy Hare 2 Indianapolis

Joe Dansky 1 Jacksonville

Joe Pucillo 2 Jacksonville

John Abshear 4 Carolina

Juice 2 Carolina

Kauf 2 Jacksonville

Kay Lee 3 Jacksonville

Ken Dash Detroit

Kevin Moran 1 Detroit

Kim P. New England

Mark Lacarenza 1 Carolina

Mark Lacarenza 2 Jacksonville

Marole Leteber Atlanta

Matt Bottiglieri 4 Atlanta

Matt Warren 1 Jacksonville

Michael Hickey 3 Indianapolis

Mike Gosk 3 Jacksonville

Nate Pivaroff 3 Indianapolis

Niemeyer..NOW WATSON Jacksonville

Nomanerz Dallas

Paul McIntyre Atlanta

Paul Zucconi 2 Jacksonville

Phil Manno 4 Jacksonville

Rick Woods 2 Baltimore

Rodney Thomas 1 Baltimore

Ron P 4 Carolina

Ryan Kohrig 5 Baltimore

Scott Tilley 2 Jacksonville

Shane Kent 1 Baltimore

Shane Kent 3 Atlanta

Todd Turchin 1 Atlanta

Vernon Lee 1 Baltimore

NCAA and NFL Picks, Joe Lieberman is now the Man, and Rutgers Rules...

All right, I apologize. I have been less than quantitatively effective on my column output this week. And I actually have a lot to say. It is just that my actual work seems to be getting in the way, which doesn’t do anybody any good. So I will give you a few of my quick thoughts, then my college and pro picks, then try to do better next week.

My takeaway from the elections Tuesday is that the most important person in Washington is not George W. Bush, and it is not Nancy Pelosi. It is Joe Lieberman. This guy has had a political comeback that is every bit of how Rutgers won that amazing college football game last night. Thrown out and dismissed by his own party after 18 years and even serving as their Vice Presidential nominee only 6 years ago, he came back to hold onto his Senate seat by running as an Independent. Not since Jesse ‘the Body” Ventura have we had such an Independent in such a big role. But if I were Joe Lieberman (who had the Dems mad at him because he voted for what he thought was right and not just what party leaders told him to do), I would tell the Dems to stick it and act like a true independent and do what he thinks is best, not what his old party that turned their backs on him says. He is the swing vote in the Senate. And, as a citizen who is disgusted with both the fanatical right and the liberal left, and as someone that thinks that Lieberman is as good a mind as any as we have in Washington, that gives me some comfort. His is not intended as a complete analysis of where we are as a country, or to elicit a million political responses, but I had to get it out there.

Now how about Rutgers!!!! The Scarlet Knights were getting beat worse than Carlos Baldomir against Floyd Mayweather when they just completely shut down Louisville’s offense for the last 2.5 quarters of the game. Just an awesome display of great coaching, flawless execution, and tremendous heart from a group of overachievers who are giving the folks who run the BCS indigestion. Everyone should be rooting for the Scarlet Knights to run the table (including a very tough game at West Virginia) so that they can get snubbed by the BCS and we can clamor more loudly than usual for a playoff!!! Plus, that game last night was a picture of what is right about college sports. Just awesome…

OK, I am sorry, but I am running out of time. Must get to football picks….

NCAA (Last week: 5-2; Overall, 30-28, 52%)

Maryland (-3) vs. Miami. The Hurricanes are a mess. Now they had a player murdered this week. Sometimes these are opportunities to rally around someone or something, but this program has too much negative energy right now.

Purdue (+3) at Illinois. Just not ready to buy into to the Ron Zook mania sweeping through Champaign.

Florida St (-9) vs. Wake. I hope I am wrong. Wake is one of the two best stories (with Rutgers) in college football this year, but going with Xavier Lee at QB will right the ‘Noles.

Texas A&M (+1) vs. Nebraska. The Aggies bounce back after a one point loss at home to the Sooners last week.

Oklahoma (-9) vs. Texas Tech. Stoops is an underrated coach. Leach is a gimmick coach who has been figured out.

NFL (Last week: 3-2; Overall: 28-22, 56%)

Miami (+1) vs. Kansas City. This is when Miami turned it up last year, after the games were meaningless except to bettors and the other team. And wouldn’t it be convenient for Huard to lay an egg and make the QB controversy go away?

Cincinnati (+1) vs. San Diego. Last chance for the Bungles to redeem themselves in my eyes.

Indianapolis (-11.5) vs. Buffalo. J.P. Losman. Peyton Manning. Enough said.

Pittsburgh (-4.5) vs. New Orleans. T-R-A-P……

Green Bay (+5.5) at Minnesota. Brett Favre never plays well in Minnesota, so naturally, now that he is a shell of his former self, I will be taking the points.

San Francisco (+6) at Detroit. Who are the Lions to be giving 6 to anyone?

Denver (-9) at Oakland. I cannot justify a Raider selection under any circumstances after having actually watched them on Monday Night.

No comment on Eagles, except to say they better get off to a lead as they have proven they are not great in a close game, slug it out situation. Lots to comments on next week…

College Football Coach of the Year Nominees, Miami needs Change, a Political Thought, and Thank God College Hoops is Here

When you think about the college football season and who should be coach of the year, there are three reasonable choices. The one that everyone is talking about, and who will probably sweep these end of season awards, especially if his squad wins on Thursday, is Greg Schiano of Rutgers. The guys that nobody is talking about except probably Kevin J. Marvel and Arnold Palmer are Ralph Friedgen of Maryland and Jim Grobe of Wake Forest. The Terps began the season with unimpressive wins against William & Mary, Middle Tennesse St, and Florida International (maybe they should be credited for the brawling with the latter), before opening the ACC season with a loss to Georgia Tech. They then fell way behind to Virgina before rallying to beat the Cavs, and parlayed that momentum into wins over NC St, Florida St, and Clemson. This team has gone from where Friedgen’s job was in possible jeopardy to a legitimate BCS contender. Equally as impressive (or more so) has been the job Grobe has done at Wake Forest. Grobe’s squad, who has beaten two Big East teams and an SEC school as part of its non-conference schedule, is a blown lead against Clemson in the 4th quarter away from being undefeated at this time. Imagine if the Wake Maryland game in a couple of weeks determined who would play in the ACC title game. This is what college athletics are all about.

Speaking of Rutgers, everything lines up nicely for them this week for an upset of Louisville. The Cards are coming of a huge emotional win last week against the Mountaineers while the Scarlet Knights have been able to prepare for this game for 11 days (they played last Sunday). In addition, they have the added motivation of not getting much respect from around the country. And finally, they have a star in Ray Rice who can literally help carry them to a huge win. Except, as Lee Corso would say, not so fast my friend. No matter how well the stars align in this one, I just do not see the upset. Louisville is too balanced offensively against a defense that has looked soft in the middle the last couple weeks. In addition, while Rice is a great player, Rutgers offense is less dimensional than even West Virginia’s. Finally, I bought into the Louisville players and coaches after the game, who credibly talked about how they were immediately putting the Mountaineer game behind them and that Rutgers is now the biggest game of the year. Louisville has struggled on the road at times, but I think the Cards get it done on Thursday night against the Scarlet Knights, who have been just a great story this season.

As long as we are on college football, I have to redundantly call for Donna Shalala and Larry Coker to be pushed aside at Miami. This program is a disaster, and now tragedy has struck as one of their defensive linemen was shot and killed last night. They have lost institutional control over this program, and people are now dying because of it. Please, Board of Regents or whoever makes these decisions, make some changes.

Speaking of changes, I watched as America gave control of the House (and probably the Senate) to the Democrats (how about that for a ridiculous segue). As a moderate, I view this is a pretty good thing. Not that I think in general the Democrats are any better equipped to make decisions of National importance than the GOP, but rather that in an environment like this, I believe a balance of power between the Executive Branch and the Legislative Branch (not to be confused with the Deion Branch) is a positive. This will force both sides of the aisle, if they want to get anything accomplished, to put aside their partisan politics and work for compromise. Now, do I think any of that will happen? No, not really. But in my mind I would prefer a certain degree of gridlock than the far right of far left pushing through their own narrow-minded agendas. I was disappointed to see that Marole Leteber did not make more of a splash as a write in candidate, but maybe this means we will see him for poker sometime soon.

Back to sports….

I took my kids to an NBA game on Sunday. As you know if you are a regular reader of this space, I am not an NBA fan. I think the game is boring to watch, it lacks emotion, and the players do not have the fundamental skills that they did when I was growing up (a result of too many kids opting to go to the league before they are ready instead of staying in college; this hurts both the college and pro games). And, from a live spectator standpoint, the ticket prices are outrageous, especially for a team that has basically sucked for several years and does not promise to be much better this year. Anyway, I must admit, I was impressed. Not so much by the quality of play on the floor (although Allan Iverson is simply an immense talent), as by the overall experience. The crowd was into the game (albeit a far cry from Cameron Indoor), and there was lots of stuff for the kids to do to keep them entertained. Also, they had stuff going on during every timeout (a la minor league baseball). I still think the product is not very good, but it was a good family activity…

That being said, give me college basketball over the NBA 100 times out of 100. And the very exciting news is that college hoops starts TODAY, with Maryland in action in the Coaches versus Cancer challenge. Duke opens their schedule Sunday against the always tough Columbia Lions (are they the Lions?). It looks as though Paulus will not be out too long, which is important since Duke has no other point guards and a tough early schedule. It was interesting to see that Foxsports.com has Josh McRoberts on his First Team All America list and Tyler Hansbrough, who proved much more than McRoberts during his Freshman year, on his second team. It will be interesting to see how both Duke and Carolina blossom with incredibly young teams, especially Duke.

Dils Win or Die Week 9; Pick Distribution and Individual Picks

Overwhelming support for the NY Football Giants this week, with 57% of the entries picking the Boys in Blue as their hope for survival. This is the highest percentage on any team in any week so far this season. Good luck to all this week. I am celebrating the Eagles bye week by ignoring football today (well, the early games at least) and taking my kids to see the Sixers play. Enjoy your Sunday.

Pick Distribution:
Buffalo 1
Chicago 3
Jacksonville 6
NY Giants 37
San Diego 16
Seattle 2

Individual Picks:
Akshon Barclay 2 NY Giants
Alberto Escobedo 1 San Diego
Amol Dixit 5 NY Giants
Andy Smukler Jacksonville
Ari Raivetz NY Giants
Brady Boss 1 NY Giants
Brent Bryant San Diego
Brian Ellis 4 NY Giants
Brian Getson 2 NY Giants
Brian Harris 4 Seattle
Che Hong Yeung NY Giants
Chris Bassi 1 NY Giants
Cobes 1 NY Giants
D Froney 2 San Diego
Daniel Neifer 1 NY Giants
Darren Dahlman 1 NY Giants
Dave Holdsworth 2 NY Giants
Dave Robbins 1 NY Giants
Dave S 2 NY Giants
DFroney..NOW R BYRON San Diego
Ed Welsh 2 NY Giants
Eric Yungner 1 NY Giants
Fenlin/Stern 1 San Diego
Gabe Bodhi 2 NY Giants
George Triano San Diego
Jack Marshall 1 NY Giants
James Mills 2 San Diego
Jeff Berman NY Giants
Jeff Saito NY Giants
Jeff Slovin 2 Jacksonville
Jeremy Hare 2 NY Giants
Joe Dansky 1 NY Giants
Joe Pucillo 2 NY Giants
John Abshear 4 San Diego
Juice 2 NY Giants
Kauf 2 NY Giants
Kay Lee 3 San Diego
Ken Dash Buffalo
Kevin Moran 1 San Diego
Kim P. San Diego
Mark Lacarenza 1 NY Giants
Mark Lacarenza 2 NY Giants
Marole Leteber NY Giants
Matt Bottiglieri 4 NY Giants
Matt Warren 1 San Diego
Max Haber 3 Chicago
Michael Hickey 3 San Diego
Mike Gosk 3 NY Giants
Nate Pivaroff 3 NY Giants
Niemeyer 1 NY Giants
Nomanerz Jacksonville
Paul McIntyre Jacksonville
Paul Zucconi 2 Seattle
Phil Manno 4 NY Giants
Rick Woods 2 NY Giants
Robin Mitchell Chicago
Rodney Thomas 1 San Diego
Ron P 4 Jacksonville
Ryan Kohrig 5 NY Giants
Scott Tilley 2 NY Giants
Shane Kent 1 San Diego
Shane Kent 3 Jacksonville
Sosangelis...NOW KRUG Chicago
Todd Turchin 1 San Diego
Vernon Lee 1 NY Giants

NCAA and NFL Picks

My picks for this weekend are below. I may post again later today or tomorrow with some additional thoughts on something or other, but I wanted to get these up so people know how they can make some easy money this weekend. Good luck!

NCAA (Last Week + Last Night: 3-3; Overall: 25-26-1, 49%)

Vanderbilt (+17) vs. Florida. The Commodores seem to play Florida tough, and there offense is strong enough (not just anyone puts up 45 against the mighty Blue Devils), and Florida’s is not as dominating as some people think, to keep the game respectable.

Texas A&M (+2.5) vs. Oklahoma. Franchione has the boys playing good ball. They are tough to beat at home. Do not fret if the Aggies fall behind. They have trailed or been tied in all their Big 12 games at the half and are 4-1 in the conference. Oklahoma was impressive in beating Mizzou last week in Columbia, but beating A&M with a mediocre QB and without Adrian Peterson will be a tall task.

LSU (-3.5) at Tennessee. Purely a read on the spread. Play with Vegas, not against them.

South Carolina (+2) vs. Arkansas. The Razorbacks have had a great ride, and even though they beat Auburn on the road, I do not think their Freshman QB is good enough to beat the Shamecocks in Columbia. South Carolina rush defense should slow down Arkansas’ prolific rushing attack, and Spurrier is due to win one of these hard fought battles at home. There is always a danger of a look ahead to Spurrier’s old Gators next week, but I think the game means too much and he will have them ready to go.

Colorado (-3.5) vs. K-St. Two teams heading in opposite directions.

Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Penn St. This Penn State team seems like they do not have it. Wisco at home will grind out a boring 10 –point win against the Lions.

Virginia Tech (-2.5) at Miami. Va. Tech got back to Hokie football last week, running and stopping the run. Miami almost lost to Duke two weeks ago. Enough said.

NFL (Last Week: 2-5 (ouch!); Season: 25-20-2, 56%)

St. Louis (-2.5) vs. Kansas City. The battle for Missouri. I will take Marc Bulger at home over Damon Huard, thank you. I figure this is the game Huard plays poorly so we do not have to listen to unending debate about whether Trent Green should get his job back.

Cincinnati (+3.5) at Baltimore. Man has my Super Bowl pick looked like a disappointment. Look for Ocho Cinco to help change that this weekend.

Washington (+3) vs. Dallas. Custer’s last stand. And still do not trust Tony Romo on the road.

Buffalo (-3) vs. Green Bay. I mean, I really like this one. A lot!

Indianapolis (+3) at New England. Still not sold on New England. At all. And this is the regular season, when Peyton is unstoppable.

Title Elimination Game: Is a Louisville Win in the Cards?

Isn’t Louisville just the place to be all of a sudden? College basketball season is right around the corner. The Breeders Cup, the richest day in horse racing, takes place at Churchill Downs on Saturday. And, tonight, Louisville and West Virginia clash in a battle of Top-5, unbeaten, National Championship contenders. It is a game with an NCAA tournament feel, as the winner will survive in their quest for a Big East and National Title, the loser will fall out of the running. West Virginia is the higher ranked team with more hype around their program and their head coach. Louisville is the team that has endured injuries to their quarterback (Brian Brohm, who has returned, albeit in a bit rusty fashion) and their running back (Michael Bush, out for the season), both pre-season Heisman Trophy possibilities.

So West Virginia is going to win, right? Wrong. Here are all the reasons why Louisville will win this game tonight:

• It is a revenge game. Louisville was up 17-0 last year before dropping a 46-44, triple-overtime thriller last year.
• West Virginia’s offense is one dimensional. It is one hell of a dimension, but they run, run, run, and that is about it. In the meantime, Louisville has a much more balanced offense. They can throw effectively and their running back’s who have filled in for Bush have done a nice job.
• While West Virginia relies on their potent rushing attack to win games, Louisville’s defense is strong to quite strong at stopping the run. They are 8th in the country against the run, giving us well less than 100 yards a game on the ground, with only two opponent’s touchdowns coming via the ground attack this year. West Virginia’s rushing game is not South Florida’s or Cincinnati’s, but Louisville’s strong defense should slow them down some.
• Louisville is more battle tested. The Mounties have blown out every team they have played, while Lousiville has had a couple of tough games recently to prepare them for a dogfight this evening.
• Home Cooking. Louisville’s crowd will be a factor at night in Papa John’s Stadium. They will be drinking Mint Julips early and dressing in black for the showdown. The will be drunk and loud.

The Cardinals need to make sure they hold on to the ball to win this one. They have turned the ball over frequently recently, and that is the one intangible that could swing this game back to the Mountaineers.

Pick: Louisville 27, West Virginia 23