Title Elimination Game: Is a Louisville Win in the Cards?

Isn’t Louisville just the place to be all of a sudden? College basketball season is right around the corner. The Breeders Cup, the richest day in horse racing, takes place at Churchill Downs on Saturday. And, tonight, Louisville and West Virginia clash in a battle of Top-5, unbeaten, National Championship contenders. It is a game with an NCAA tournament feel, as the winner will survive in their quest for a Big East and National Title, the loser will fall out of the running. West Virginia is the higher ranked team with more hype around their program and their head coach. Louisville is the team that has endured injuries to their quarterback (Brian Brohm, who has returned, albeit in a bit rusty fashion) and their running back (Michael Bush, out for the season), both pre-season Heisman Trophy possibilities.

So West Virginia is going to win, right? Wrong. Here are all the reasons why Louisville will win this game tonight:

• It is a revenge game. Louisville was up 17-0 last year before dropping a 46-44, triple-overtime thriller last year.
• West Virginia’s offense is one dimensional. It is one hell of a dimension, but they run, run, run, and that is about it. In the meantime, Louisville has a much more balanced offense. They can throw effectively and their running back’s who have filled in for Bush have done a nice job.
• While West Virginia relies on their potent rushing attack to win games, Louisville’s defense is strong to quite strong at stopping the run. They are 8th in the country against the run, giving us well less than 100 yards a game on the ground, with only two opponent’s touchdowns coming via the ground attack this year. West Virginia’s rushing game is not South Florida’s or Cincinnati’s, but Louisville’s strong defense should slow them down some.
• Louisville is more battle tested. The Mounties have blown out every team they have played, while Lousiville has had a couple of tough games recently to prepare them for a dogfight this evening.
• Home Cooking. Louisville’s crowd will be a factor at night in Papa John’s Stadium. They will be drinking Mint Julips early and dressing in black for the showdown. The will be drunk and loud.

The Cardinals need to make sure they hold on to the ball to win this one. They have turned the ball over frequently recently, and that is the one intangible that could swing this game back to the Mountaineers.

Pick: Louisville 27, West Virginia 23