The 2006-2007 Duke Blue Devils: A Preview

The 2006-07 Duke Blue Devils basketball squad promises to be a completely different team than America is used to seeing. I do not recall a Duke team flying so far under the radar of media attention in recent memory. The team currently sits at #10 in the National rankings, and I have not heard a single media member talk about the Dukies when discussing the National landscape. Of course, you never hear much about Oral Roberts, but they knocked off #3 Kansas in Allen Fieldhouse last night, which is what makes college athletics so spectacular, but I digress. Sticking to the task at hand, let’s take a look at what to expect from Duke this season.

Duke is as young as it has been since Johnny Dawkins, Mark Alarie, Jay Bilas, David Henderson and Weldon Williams were freshman during the 1982-83 campaign. This team features a 10-man playing rotation of a single junior, five sophomores and four freshmen. With youth comes energy but also comes inexperience and mistakes. Look for this Duke squad to make more than its fair share, especially early in the season with a very tough schedule that includes Air Force, either Marquette or Texas Tech, Indiana, Georgetown, and Gonzaga all on the docket before Christmas.

While Duke has less experience than in years past, it has the most athleticism it has had in quite a while. Lance Thomas and Gerald Henderson, Jr. are two freshmen that will provide instant athletic ability. In addition, David McClure is back from a redshirt season, and Josh McRoberts is an exceptional athlete for a big man. The best athlete on the squad, of course, is junior DeMarcus Nelson, who appears to be healthy for the first time in his three year career, and is in phenomenal physical condition after working out with a Navy Seal this summer. These players will enable Duke to do some things on both ends of the floor and in transition that it was unable to do in years past.

Through two games you can’t make too many conclusions, especially when the competition is Columbia and Georgia Southern. However, it appears that this team has improved defensively, with both of its first two opponents shooting in the 30% neighborhood on its field goal attempts. The aforementioned athleticism combined with strong depth this year should help in that area. In addition, they have many interchangeable parts defensively that gives the team many options with how to guard other team’s best players, etc.

One defensive question mark revolves around Greg Paulus. The only point guard on the roster, Paulus is coming back from a foot injury (or, as Dave Wannstedt and subsequently everyone involved with football would now say, “coming back from a foot”). He was ahead of schedule in his return, so he may not yet be 100%, but even when completely healthy he simply does not have the lateral quickness to stop penetration. My guess is that the Devils will attempt to solve this problem by running waves of defenders at opposing points, including Nelson and David McClure, who looks to be much improved over his Freshman campaign two years ago. While Paulus is an excellent passer who sees the floor extremely well, and a good leader on the court, he is a defensive liability.

Duke has more size than it has enjoyed in the recent past as well, with the surprising ready-for-college game that seven footer Brian Zoubek brings to the table. When you put Zoubek on the floor with McRoberts and Lance Thomas, the result is a bigger front line than Duke has enjoyed often times in years past. If they can combine strong team defense with this size, the Devils should be a better rebounding team than in past years, when they were often outboarded by opponents.

Watching Duke play against Georgia Southern the other night, one of the things that stands out is that this team, which has been extremely reliant on the three point shot for many years, especially during the last four with J.J. Redick firing them up at warp speed, does not shoot many threes. This team seems to be content with a more balanced attack that includes more inside play, more dribble penetration, and using the three as simply one weapon in a broader arsenal. Jon Scheyer, the 6’5” freshman out of Northbrook, IL, does seem to possess the sweet shooting touch that will enable Duke to make a strong percentage of the threes it does take.

One problem that Duke faces is that they only have one point guard on the roster. This will be an issue if Paulus gets hurt again, if he gets in foul trouble, or if Duke cannot compensate for the previously mentioned defensive liabilities that he brings to the floor. They have plenty of other guys who can bring the ball up the floor, especially Scheyer and McRoberts. They will struggle in cases where a team has the quickness to apply defensive pressure while offensively taking advantage of Paulus’ defensive issues. A good indication of how big this issue will be for the Devils this year could come as early as next Tuesday, if Duke gets by Air Force (who demolished Stanford last night) and Marqueet beats Texas Tech. Dominic James will give this team all they can handle with his quickness and offensive abilities. It will be interesting to watch if Duke can slow a team like this down enough to win (Personally, early in the season, I would make Duke an underdog if this matchup becomes a reality on a neutral court in Kansas City)

Josh McRoberts is a guy that generates almost as much hatred with non-Duke fans as Paulus. He appeared on projected lottery lists for the NBA draft last year if he would have decided to come out early, and was on at least one pre-season All America list this season. People that do not like Duke (i.e., most of America) really go nuts when they see this kind of acclaim for a kid who did not do a whole lot in his Freshman year except to show flashes of incredible talent. Duke fans react by saying he was a #3 or 4 option last year.

McRoberts has undeniable skills. He can handle and pass the ball better than any big man in the college game today. He can display a soft shooting touch at times, and he has good athletic skills that allow him to play good defense, especially help side. But what McRoberts really has to show if he wants to quiet his many critics is an ability to thrive as a #1 option, the ability to score consistently both inside and outside, especially the former, and to be the go to guy in crunch time.

Again, you cannot make too many judgments by watching two games against inferior competition, but, as a Duke guy, I am concerned with what I have seen from McRoberts so far. He just does not seem to have the ability to score easily from the inside, and he is not putting the team on his back and leading. I am not saying he cannot do that when the competition picks up, but I would have liked to have seen more in the early going.
While McRoberts has not been overly impressive in the early going, DeMarcus Nelson has indeed lived up to the hype. He is in tremendous condition, and he has the athletic skills to lock down an opposing point guard or, just as effectively, rebound with the big boys. In fact, he is the best “inch-for-inch” rebounder I have ever seen wear a Duke uniform. He can also hit the three or effectively take it to the hole. Nelson’s only weakness is questionable decision making at times. If he can stay healthy all season and cut down on mental errors, this guy could be an All-ACC performer and make a huge difference for Duke.

The Freshmen look to be the real deal. Henderson and Thomas are great athletes and will be strong wing players who can score and play great defense. Scheyer is the best pure shooter on the team, and Zoubek is the biggest surprise of all. He was expected to be somewhat of a project when he came to campus, but he appears like he will be a solid contributor all season.

Outlook. When you root for or play for Duke, anything less than a Final Four Appearance and possible National Championship is considered a disappointment. This year, the expectations have changed, at least at the beginning of the season. As with most young, talented teams, Duke will probably lose a game or two that they clearly should win, but probably surprise a team or two along the way as well (if winning any game can be too much of a surprise when you are the #10 team in the country).

It will be interesting to watch how this team gels and comes together during the next three months as it prepares for March. Can I see the team winning it all or getting to the Final Four? In a year when Oral Roberts can win at Kansas, it is possible with their talent, but not likely. I do think they have a chance to extend their consecutive Sweet 16 appearances to 10 straight in March, which does not seem all that impressive until you realize that no school in the country other than Duke has a longer current streak than two.

The team will be exciting to watch (and probably for Coach K to coach), and probably maddening at times. Maybe, just maybe, America will see Duke in more of an underdog role and start to root for the Devils as it was during the mid and late-80s. But probably not.