Friday, December 08, 2006

A New Stitzer, Pro Picks for Sunday

First and foremost, congratulations to Mr. & Mrs. Andrew Stitzer, who became parents yesterday for the third time. They had a healthy baby boy (Joseph), which leaves Ann with three boys and a girl to take care of…..

Obviously, my college pick are on hiatus until the Bowl Season begins. My record for the regular season finished at 40-34 for 54%. Not bad (good enough to win some $), but not as good as we need to do in the Bowl games. I will make Bowl picks for each game, beginning with the Poinsettia Bowl on December 19th. Don’t forget to get your picks in for the Dils Bowl pool!!! No such hiatus on my NFLK picks, which is good as we need to get right back on the horse after a dismal performance last week, which is my own fault for picking against the Birds!

NFL (Last Week: 2-5; Overall: 37-33, 53%)

Kansas City (-2.5) vs. Baltimore. This is a matchup of a team that was not as good as the record indicates against a team that is tough to beat at home and coming off a ridiculous choke job last week. The Chiefs will score and Baltimore will not be able to keep up.

Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs. Atlanta. This is more of a “I don’t trust Michael Vick to win two in a row on the road” than a “Bruce Gradkowski at home is unbeatable.”

New York Giants (+1.5) at Carolina. What is the opposite of an immovable object meeting an irresistible force? Eli Manning matching up with Chris Weinke. But the Boys in Blue (darker shade) should end their embarrassing skid. Not sure if it will be in time to save Coughlin’s job or his sanity, but they will get it done this week.

Dallas (-7) vs. New Orleans. Tony Romo should feast against this banged up Saints secondary.

Buffalo (+4) at New York Jets. Purely a line play here. Why are the Jets only favored by a few here. Should be 7….

Jacksonville (+1) vs. Indy. The Colts are reeling, can’t sop the run, and Jacksonville will be sky high for this one.

Miami (+3.5) vs. New England. This is a field goal game.

Denver (+7.5) at San Diego. Must win, revenge game, Denver at least keeps it close.

St. Louis (+6.5) vs. Chicago. Jackson will be able to run on the Bears and help create a time of possession advantage, and if Bulger can avoid the big mistakes, St. Louis may just pull an outright win in this one.

4 Comments:

At 1:06 PM, Blogger Stitz said...

thank ya Dils...taking care of the older 2 all day has me itching to get back to work!!!

 
At 3:36 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I enjoy your picks, but not sure when a 54% win/loss rate makes you money.....doesn't the vig make 55% break-even and anything less a losing effort?

JR

 
At 3:39 PM, Blogger Dils said...

Nope. With vig, 52.4% is break even.

Do the math, 40-34 translates to 40-37.4 when vis is calculated. Not great, but a winner.

 
At 5:55 PM, Blogger Stitz said...

Next season, Dils will assignn weights to his picks and that will increase his hypothetical winning % as I know the games he feels strongly about hit at a higher clip than 53%.

JETS line is 3.5/4 because Buff gained 475 yards against JETS d in week 3. Different D & Buff is nicked up - they keep it close for awhile, but JETS cover. No prediction on score as last week was 1st game all year I told Dils I liked total in a JETS game and I was wrong...gleefully so as 31-0 score @ halftime was just fine with me.

 

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