Some NCAA Tourney Thoughts

• Drexel got robbed. Plain and simple. 14 road wins, including Villanova, Creighton and Syracuse. They may have only gone 1-5 against Hofstra, VCU, and Old Dom, but those are good teams. Drexel should be dancing this week.
• In addition to Drexel, Syracuse and either Kansas State or Florida State should have made the field over Illinois, Arkansas, and Stanford.
• Yes, I think Duke got seeded slightly too high as a #6. But they legitimately could have been a #7 so stop complaining.
• The ACC team that really got too high a seed was Virginia, who should have been around a #6, not a #4.
• Other teams that were seeded too high were Butler, USC, Oregon, Xavier, Purdue, and Albany (how do they get a #13 over Penn?).
• Teams that were seeded too low in my opinion were Louisville, UNLV, BYU, Winthrop, Creighton, and Nevada.
• I do not like that there are less mid major than there should be (only 6 at larges) and some are playing each other (Southern Illinois v. Holy Cross, especially Nevada v. Creighton)
  Everyone on the planet is picking VCU to knock off Duke. Yes, they have some athleticism at the guard spot especially in Eric Maynor that can cause some challenges defensively for the Devils. On the flip side, they have little inside presence and the Dukies should have a nice advantage there. I think the game will be fairly close, but I will be surprised if it is one and done for Duke.
• Vegas seems to have made the lines lower than ever in an attempt to get you (the bettor) to play all favorites. Do not get sucked in. When in doubt, take the points. There is more parity that ever in college hoops, and it is about matchups, experience, coaching, and guys that can carry their teams when they need it. Do not fear the dog, even if it is a #12 seed only getting 1-2 points against a #5 seed.
• Nevada v. Creighton is a ridiculous first round game. Two teams that probably both were underseeded, this is more like a #4 v. a #7 matchup. Either team (especially if Shiloh is healthy for Nevada) could give Memphis all they can handle in the second round.
• The tweener time slot is back for the tourney, meaning there are effectively 5 different slots of games for the degenerates who cannot get enough. The two best games ever in this slot were Drexel knocking off Memphis back when they still had the State in their name behind Malik Rose, and St. Joe beating Pacific during Arthur ‘Yah’ Davis’ one and done career (I believe 1997).
• Since you asked, and since I am tired of every media person picking chalk all the way and seeing a bunch of #1 v. #2 regional finals, I am picking a #1, #2, #3, and #4 seeds for my final 4: Kansas, Georgetown, Texas A&M, and Maryland. I have Kansas cutting down the nets by beating Georgetown and Jeff Green, who the Sports Guy evidently never heard of until he started watching college hoops like three weeks ago.

Back tomorrow with some more first round game breakdowns and predictions….

Here Are the Answers....What 65 Teams Will Hear Their Names

What a great effort by N.C. State. They really put themselves into a position to get in, but came up just short. Since Texas, Kansas, Wisconsin and Ohio State are all safely in the field, here ate the 65 teams that the committee should call today:

1. Atlantic East (1) Albany (Vermont did not even get a shot off with the ball and down 1)
2. ACC (7) Duke, North Carolina, Maryland, Virginia, Va Tech, Georgia Tech, B.C.
3. Atlantic Sun (1) Belmont
4. Atlantic 10 (2) G.W., Xavier
5. Big East (7) Georgetown, Villanova, Pitt, Louisville, Notre Dame, Syracuse, Marquette
6. Big Sky (1) Weber St
7. Big South (1) Winthrop
8. Big 10 (5) Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St, Purdue
9. Big 12 (4) Kansas, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech
10. Big West (1) Long Beach St
11. Colonial (3)...yes, 3 VCU, Drexel, Old Dominion
12. Conference USA (1) Memphis
13. Horizon (2) Wright St, Butler
14. Ivy (1) Penn
15. MAAC (1) Niagara
16. MAC (1) Miami (Ohio)
17. MEAC (1) Florida A&M
18. Mid Continent (1) Oral Roberts
19. Missouri Valley (2) Creighton, Southern Illinois
20. Mountain West (2) BYU, UNLV
21. Northeast (1) Central Connecticut St
22. Ohio Valley (1) Eastern Kentucky
23. Pac 10 (5) Arizona, Oregon, USC, Washington St, UCLA
24. Patriot (1) Holy Cross
25. SEC (4) Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee
26. Southern (2) Davidson, Appalachian St
27. Southland (1) Tx A&M CC
28. Sunbelt (1) North Texas
29. SWAC (1) Jackson St
30. WAC (2) New Mexico St, Nevada
31. WCC (1) Gonzaga

Last Six Out:

1. West Virginia
2. Akron
3. Florida St
4. Stanford
5. Kansas St.
6. Illinois

Two things: I recognize that they will probably not take three colonial team nor Appalachian St from the Southern Conference, but they would be so much better to watch (or Akron) than a middle of the Pac BCS team. Hopefully the committee agrees, although I expect two of my last 6 out will prbably get in over a third colonial team (probably Drexel) and App. St.

The Four #1 Seeds:

1. Big 10 Champ
2. UCLA
3. UNC
4. Florida

The Four #2 Seeds:

1. Kansas (they will lose today)
2. Big 10 Runner Up
3. Georgetown
4. Texas

Enjoy the selection show. Be back tomorrow with thoughts about the draw.....

The Day of Reckoning is Here

NC State continued to make it look like 1997 yesterday. In 1997, State won what was then the only Thursday game, the "play in game" between the 8 & 9 seeds, then beat top seeded Duke on its way to play on Sunday for the automatic bid from the conference. Herb Sendek's crew played with the same slow down style that this year's team does. This team has two weapons that the '97 team, which came up short against Carolina in the Sunday final, did not. They have Engin Atsur and the big red jacket. Unfortunately, while the jacket will be at 100% for the game Sunday, it looks like Atsur really hurt his hamstring on Saturday, which will make a very difficult task of winning four games in four days with no depth (against a deep UNC team that has played one less game) just about impossible.

Either way, it has been one great run for the Wolfpack, a team that may have gotten an at large bid if not for the 12 games Atsur missed with the same hamstring. You can rest assured everybody in the country outside of Raleigh will be rooting for the Tar Heels to run them out of the gym and keep them from stealing what is an increasingly precious at large spot.

Same goes for the Arkansas v. Florida match-up in the SEC. All the bubble teams will be rooting for a Gator win, although Arkansas can at least consider itself one of the teams competing for an at large even if they were to lose today. I guess the folks in the Razorback administration better put that Stan Heath buyout package on ice for a while....

Akron will not be dancing this year, despite the fact that they had the talent to make a legit Sweet 16 run. They really have no one to blame but themselves, as they had a comfortable 5-8 point lead throughout the whole MAC Final, and then they really puckered up down the stretched and played scared. The fact that the Redhawks of Miami (OH) won on a miracle shot after Akron missed the front end of a 1-and-1 just makes that loss doubly brutal. Look for the Zips to be one and done in the NIT as that loss will be very difficult to get up from emotionally.

The tournament selection committee must be stressed out this morning, as the #1 seeds and the last teams in all remain up in the air the morning of the bracket unveiling. There has not been this much uncertainty around anything since they tried to figure out who the father of Anna Nicole Smith's baby is.

Great match ups in the Big 10 and Big 12. I look for Texas to give KU all they can handle and perhaps pull off the outright win, while, despite the 16 straight wins, Wisconsin seems to be playing better ball than the Buckeyes right now, so I will go with the folks from Madison to win in Chicago. Would anyone be surprised if neither of these teams made the even Final 8 by the way?

I will be back later today with my picks for the 65 chosen teams....

Championship Week Continues: The Storm Before the Storm

Another great day of college hoops on Friday. But a terrible day for bubble teams like Drexel, Old Dominion, Stanford, Appalachian St (I keep them in this category, because I would like them to get in, not because I think they have a shot at this point), and Florida State. With Nevada losing to Utah State (with Shiloh out), and Xavier losing to Rhode Island (is Lamar Odom back to use up the rest of his eligibility?), that means that the WAC and the Atlantic 10 will both get two bids, costing two bubble teams their spots. Look for Bruiser Flint, the Drexel coach, to start shooting if Houston beat Memphis today to get Conference USA a second bid.

Today we have a mix of some games where bids are on the line (Vermont v. Albany, New Mexico St v. Utah St, Long Beach v. Cal Poly), and some with the big boys colliding (Big East Final, ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big 10 Semis).

I am especially intrigued by this New Mexico State team (which may be smart to sign Matt Parsons, redshirt freshman quarterback from the football team and a solid 6'7", and my nephew), which has played well but under the radar all year long. Reggie Theus has a great chance to get this team to the big dance, especially with playing the title game today at home. And they have a better chance in my opinion of winning a game once there than the other auto qualifiers today (Vermont, Long Beach in my opinion).

For all the play the SEC East got this year with all the so called locks coming from that division (Kentucky, Vandy, Florida, Tennessee), three of the four semifinalists in that conference come from the lowly, NIT bound West division. Of the three teams left to challenge the alpha dog Gators, Arkansas is playing the best ball lately, and is probably in the best shape to make an at-large claim just be getting to the finals. The Hogs are coming off impressive back to back wins over Vandy including one on the Commodores funky home court.

In the ACC, NC State joins three of the top 4 seeds in looking for the championship, after adding Virginia's scalp to their win over Duke from Thursday night. With NC State's lack of depth, winning four games in four days will be a tall order, although they did handle their opponent today, Va Tech, by 25 earlier this year, and have a win over UNC to their credit as well. This is clearly a different team with Atsur running the point and they were crushed by the 12 games he missed earlier this season. That injury, more than Tony Douglas at Florida State, did the most damage to an ACC team's at large chances.

In the Big East, I pick Pitt to beat Georgetown. Per my post yesterday, Pitt is just a team that always plays well in the Big East tourney, that is flying under the National radar, and found a way to beat a very good Louisville team yesterday despite getting nothing, and I mean nothing, from Aaron Gray, their best player.

In the Big 10, look for Purdue, despite starting nobody over 6'7", to give Ohio State all they can handle today. This game will come down to the wire, and I think Purdue has a shot. In the other game, Wisconsin seems to have found a way to play effectively without Brian Butch, and I think they handle Illinois with relative ease. Personally, people are saying Illinois is in, but I think they should be out unless they win today.

I will be back tomorrow with what I think the 65 teams will be and what I think they should be if I had a vote.

One Sad Note, A Wild Thursday of NCAA Hoops

Thursday was an incredible sports day that was marred by a terrible tragedy. John Vukovich, who has been in the Phillies organization seemingly forever, passed away at age 59. Vuke, who had the shortest tenure of any manager in major league history of about one hour with the Cubs back in the mid 1980’s, is a guy that probably nobody outside of Philly knew of, but everybody inside Philly loved. I would go into more details, but Jayson Stark did it for me (and a lot better). If you want to read more, go here.

Now back to college hoops. One note, I will be updating the blog both Saturday and Sunday this weekend (and maybe a second post today), so check back often…..

Wow. If Thursday was any indication, next week is going to be as wild as ever in the NCAA Tournament. Of all the conference tournament games yesterday, over 35% of the lower seeds won their games outright. Nine (yes, 9) games went into overtime, and three went into double overtime. The ACC alone saw all four lower seeds win, three of them in overtime, Wake Forest in double OT!

Now, let me get right to addressing Duke. I have a few comments:

• Their season continues to be disappointing. They have now lost 7 of 11 and seem to lack the ability to make the big play (scoring, rebounding, whatever) at the big time
• I would hope no Duke fans would use the Henderson suspension as an excuse for losing last night. The bottom line is that if you cannot beat the #10 seed on Thursday, you do not deserve to stick around for the weekend.
• Anyone that says that Duke does not deserve to make the NCAA Tournament based on the current criteria of choosing the 34 best non-automatic qualifiers either does not understand the criteria, does not understand college basketball, or simply blindly hates Duke. Duke is 22-10 against the second hardest schedule in the country. They have 3 wins against the RPI top 25 and 8 against the RPI top 50 (they had 9 but Davidson dropped to #51!). Only North Carolina (11), UCLA (9), and Maryland (9) have more (interesting that both UCLA and Maryland also lost yesterday in HUGE upsets, but I digress). So let’s just admit that Duke is not all that good this year, but they are certainly good enough to be in the tournament, and in my estimation, are very clearly headed for an 8 vs. 9 game.
• The “growing up” and coming together” of this team was supposed to happen by now. It hasn’t. Your time is up, coach!
• The last time Duke had a seed this low was 1996, when they, as a #8, lost to a mid major in Eastern Michigan, led by a tiny guard names Earl Boykins.
• The last time Duke failed to make the Sweet 16 was 1997, when as a #2 they lost to #10 Providence and Austin Croshere in the second round.

I am simply amazed that Maryland, who is as hot as any team in the country, and I even picked on the George Rogers show this week to go to the Final 4, lost to Miami for the second time this year. As strange as it sounds, that loss may help Maryland avoid that kind of performance in the NCAAs. It will cost them a seed or two for sure, so it may not have been worth the wake up call.

The two most disappointing teams in the entire country this season both had their hopes and dreams shattered yesterday, with Alabama going down to Kentucky, and San Diego St. losing to Colorado St. Alabama will point to Ronald Steele’s ongoing knee troubles. In my opinion San Diego St. was faced with a mediocre at best head coach who was not able to adjust his coaching to fit his talent this year (or he couldn’t get them to listen). I really thought both these teams has Sweet 16 if not Elite 8 talent.

The team that everyone will be picking to go far, that will lose early is Texas. Everyone is on the Kevin Durant bandwagon and rightfully so. He has a chance to be an All World player, and from what you read, he seems like he is a great kid as well. However, the guy that may have more to do with their postseason success than Durant is D.J. Augustin, a tantalizingly talented guard who has shown more and more brilliance as they season has worn on. I still think Augustin, also a Freshman, is prone to playing out of control too much, something which I fear is most likely in the early rounds of the tourney, especially when they start pressing in a game they feel they should be winning but is close late.

On the flip side, the team that nobody will talk about, everybody will pick to lose early, but could surprise people with how long they stay around is Pittsburgh. This team has experience, good guard play, perimeter shooting, a good big man, and a solid coach. Watch the Panthers.

The two teams that deserve to be in the big dance but could get left out Sunday are Drexel and Appalachian State. Keep your fingers crossed, as these guys can win a game if they get there.

We have 39 more glorious games today, starting at noon (we’ve got day games!!!). For people stuck at work, you can see some of the espn stuff free on espn 360.

A couple slam dunks today: Purdue over Iowa, Indiana over Illinois, Vandy over Arkansas, Kentucky over Mississippi State, Miami (ohio) over Toledo, and Georgetown over Notre Dame, and Pitt over Louisville. Good luck, and enjoy.

NCAA Basketball: November Games Matter

November games matter. All you need prove that these three words are factual are to analyze the fates of Akron against those of Butler. Akron is the champion of the Eastern Division of the MAC, with a 23-6 overall record and an RPI ranked #68. They are 11-5 in road/neutral games, and have a winning record against the RPI Top 100 (3-2). They won on the road against Niagara and Oral Roberts, who are both going dancing. They lost to Nevada by 2. On the other hand, Butler limped to the end of the season, winning only 4 of their last 8, including two losses to Wright St and one to Loyola (IL). So why is Butler a lock to go dancing when the brackets are revealed on Sunday, while Akron needs to win the MAC to have any shot?

For one simple reason. Butler won a two point road game at Notre Dame on November 13th while Akron lost a two point road game at UA-LR on the same night. You think Akron is kicking themselves for this now? If Butler loses to the Irish, the opportunities to play (and beat) Indiana, Tennessee, and Gonzaga go away. Their RPI would probably be in the 80s right now, and they would be waiting to see if they would get an NIT bid. Akron, however, would have gone on to play Texas Tech, with opportunities to potentially play Marquette along with Air Force and/or Duke. If they beat Texas Tech, even losing their next two games would have helped their RPI skyrocket (probably into the 30s or low 40s), and they would be clearly in the conversation.

It just goes to show you that every game counts, and that perhaps we need to stop over-valuing the RPI by itself. For the record, if Butler and Akron played straight up, the Bulldogs would be a small favorite at a point or two due to public perception, and I would be all over the Zips. This team is good, they can win a game next week. Let’s just hope they win them all this week to get that chance.

As for Butler, they are clearly tired. They do not have a deep team, and rely too much on the perimeter jumper, shots that need fresh legs which are long gone by now. To guess how they will do next week, think about how Duke always lost earlier than expected when their go to guy was a tired, perimeter shooting J.J. Redick. A.J. Graves looks every bit as tired right now. This team not only relies too much on the jump shot, but their movement and passing is not what it was four months ago. Depending on the match-up, Butler may have a hard time getting past round 1.

One more note on the Henderson fiasco. Al Featherston, who as you know I enjoy, on the Duke Basketball Report described the incident as a “ridiculous national media stampede touched off by Gerald Henderson’s unfortunate foul on Tyler Hansbrough.” Featherston went on to urge that we “consider that Henderson received exactly the same punishment for a foul that even Roy Williams concedes was unintentional as Chris Paul received two years ago for deliberately punching Julius Hodge in the groin. Consider that Henderson received exactly the same punishment as Hodge got in 2002 when he deliberately threw a forearm into the back of Steve Blake’s head. That’s not to suggest that Henderson doesn’t deserve his suspension, only that the hysteria surrounding the play and its aftermath have been all out of proportion to the actual incident.”

I think Al Featherston and I would agree that it is time to move on.
The Big East Tourney starts today in New York. Teams that could claim to be on the bubble that absolutely have to win or they are done are West Virginia and DePaul. Some people think Syracuse is on the bubble, although my opinion is they are in even if they lose.

The A-10, Conference USA, MAC, and Pac 10 tourneys all kick off today also, although the only team in those four conferences that could make an argument to be in the bubble that plays today would be Washington, and they would need to get all the way to the finals to even enter the conversation.

Until tomorrow….

We Are Back.....College Hoops is Heating Up, Plus a Few Other Thoughts

I have a couple of NFL thoughts before getting to college basketball. First, I have bashed Matt Millen for years now. This does not make me unique, as he is clearly one of the worst sports executives ever to lead a major sports franchise. He has potentially done an inferior job to Isaiah Thomas has with the Knicks. However, Millen made a great trade this week. Not a good trade, a great one. He gave up an aging, overrated, slow, disgruntled cornerback (who was a Tar Heel no less), and got back Tatum Bell (a speedy if underachieving back who has strong potential in the right situation), George Foster (a serviceable starting tackle in the league), and a draft choice. Wow. I am speechless. My only possible conclusion is that we have a Weekend at Bernie’s scenario playing out, and somebody else is pulling the strings while Millen has actually died.

In another trade, the Bears gave up Thomas Jones and the 63rd pick for the 37th pick. This was acceptable for the Bears according to John Clayton, by moving up to a point in the draft where they can expect to select a possible starter for this year for a guy that no longer fit into their plans. Personally, I think the Jets stole a good, not great, running back. Teams in the NFL seem to overvalue draft choices, and this is another endless example of that. Last I checked, it is still a crapshoot, especially when we are talking about the second round. Meanwhile, Thomas Jones has proven that he can be a productive starter in this league, and still should have 2-3 good years left, as he is just 28.

Speaking of professional sports trades, I think, unless I misunderstood, that the single worst trade in history went down at the NBA trading deadline without a mention. The Sixers traded a player, Alan Henderson, to the Utah Jazz, for the right to trade second round picks. The problem with this is that Utah has 100% better chance of finishing with a worse second round pick than the Sixers, so basically they gave away a guy for nothing. How is that even legal? I know Henderson is not worth anything, and that the Jazz later waived him, but how can you give a guy away for nothing. Another reason the NBA is stupid.

With all the attention on college hoops, it is easy to lose sight of the fact that the Grapefuit and Cactus Leagues have begun. The Phillies seems to have a new personality as they have abandoned the laid back approach and are basically talking trash in the media, with Jimmy Rollins saying they will win the division (they finished 12 back last year!), and Cole Hamels saying he will win 20 games. You know what, I believe them! I love this team, and it can be special. The key is getting a decent year from Pat Burrell, and getting some bullpen help. Go Pat Gillick….

And now, some college hoops thoughts. First of all, I think it was not warranted that Gerald Henderson was tossed from the game and suspended for another for what, in my opinion, was clearly an unintentional elbow. Now, I recognize that I am biased in this situation, but I am usually fairly objective, and I think there was zero chance that Henderson intended to hit him that way. No need to get into the details, as it has been beaten to death, and most people are anti-Duke so they think the guy should basically be sent to prison for assault and battery. The question is will Duke use this as a rallying cry, and build momentum going into the big dance? Stay tuned…..

One more Duke note: I have seen in several places this week that people now think Billy Packer is pro Duke. Are you kidding me? Any Duke fan that has followed the Devils over time will tell you that he in fact cannot stand Duke, and usually bends over backwards to criticize them. This all dates back to the late 50’s when Packer was a point guard prospect. He wanted to attend Duke, but Duke would not offer him a scholarship. Instead, he ended up at Wake Forest and has held a grudge ever since. Packer being a Duke fan is just laughable.

Here is my early list for the 65 teams that I would put in the dance as of now:

Locks (or expected conference champs in 1 bid leagues):
America East (1): Vermont, who I expect to beat Albany in their tourney final
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
ACC (7): Duke, UNC, Virginia, Va Tech, BC, Maryland, Ga Tech
Atlantic Sun (1): Belmont (remember the Bruins were ahead of UCLA for 15 minutes last year before getting demolished)
Big 12 (3): Kansas, Texas A&M, Texas
Big East (7): Georgetown, Pitt, Marquette, Nova, Louisville, Notre Dame, ‘Cuse
Big Sky (1): Northern Arizona
Big South (1): Winthrop
Big 10 (4): Ohio St, Wisconsin, Indiana, Michigan St
Big West (1): Long Beach St.
Colonial (1): VCU
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (1): Butler
Ivy (1): Penn
MAAC (1): Niagara
Mid Continent (1): Oral Roberts
MAC (1): Akron
MEAC (1): Delaware St.
Missouri Valley (2): Creighton, Southern Illinois
Mountain West (3): Air Force, BYU, UNLV
Northeast (1): Central Conn St.
Ohio Valley (1): Eastern Kentucky
Pac 10 (4): UCLA, Washington St, Oregon, Arizona
Patriot (1): Bucknell (I hate Holy Cross; is the Sports Weasel hates Duke, then I hate the Crusaders)
SEC (4): Florida, Vandy, Kentucky, Tennessee
Southern (1): Davidson
Southland (1): Texas A&M Corpus
SWAC (1): Mississppi Valley St
Sun Belt (1): North Texas
WCC (1): Gonzaga
WAC (1): Nevada

Up For Grabs (8 spots), here is how I would rank them today:
1. USC (Beat Stanford and they are locked, lose and they probably sneak in anyway)
2. Texas Tech
3. Drexel (13 road wins! Beat Nova, ‘Cuse, and Creighton)
4. Purdue (Beat Iowa and they are in, lose and they fall out)
5. Appalachian State (not sure the committee will be as kind)
6. Florida St (beat Clemson they are in; lose and they are out)
7. Kansas St. (really needs a win in Big 12 tourney)
8. Old Dominion (can the Colonial get three teams? Very doubtful)

Others in consideration:
1. Stanford (jumps onto board if they can beat USC)
2. Illinois (needs probably two wins in Bog 10, at least)
3. West Virginia (needs to win 1 or 2 in the Big Apple)
4. DePaul (they at least enter the discussion if they beat Nova)
5. SEC West (Bama, Ole Miss, Miss St, Arkansas). Can any win two games to get in the conversation?
6. Missouri St (only team here with no games to play; probably ends up just short, again)

I will try to get at least a little something posted each day for next several as the excitement build towards Selection Sunday….