NCAA Basketball: November Games Matter

November games matter. All you need prove that these three words are factual are to analyze the fates of Akron against those of Butler. Akron is the champion of the Eastern Division of the MAC, with a 23-6 overall record and an RPI ranked #68. They are 11-5 in road/neutral games, and have a winning record against the RPI Top 100 (3-2). They won on the road against Niagara and Oral Roberts, who are both going dancing. They lost to Nevada by 2. On the other hand, Butler limped to the end of the season, winning only 4 of their last 8, including two losses to Wright St and one to Loyola (IL). So why is Butler a lock to go dancing when the brackets are revealed on Sunday, while Akron needs to win the MAC to have any shot?

For one simple reason. Butler won a two point road game at Notre Dame on November 13th while Akron lost a two point road game at UA-LR on the same night. You think Akron is kicking themselves for this now? If Butler loses to the Irish, the opportunities to play (and beat) Indiana, Tennessee, and Gonzaga go away. Their RPI would probably be in the 80s right now, and they would be waiting to see if they would get an NIT bid. Akron, however, would have gone on to play Texas Tech, with opportunities to potentially play Marquette along with Air Force and/or Duke. If they beat Texas Tech, even losing their next two games would have helped their RPI skyrocket (probably into the 30s or low 40s), and they would be clearly in the conversation.

It just goes to show you that every game counts, and that perhaps we need to stop over-valuing the RPI by itself. For the record, if Butler and Akron played straight up, the Bulldogs would be a small favorite at a point or two due to public perception, and I would be all over the Zips. This team is good, they can win a game next week. Let’s just hope they win them all this week to get that chance.

As for Butler, they are clearly tired. They do not have a deep team, and rely too much on the perimeter jumper, shots that need fresh legs which are long gone by now. To guess how they will do next week, think about how Duke always lost earlier than expected when their go to guy was a tired, perimeter shooting J.J. Redick. A.J. Graves looks every bit as tired right now. This team not only relies too much on the jump shot, but their movement and passing is not what it was four months ago. Depending on the match-up, Butler may have a hard time getting past round 1.

One more note on the Henderson fiasco. Al Featherston, who as you know I enjoy, on the Duke Basketball Report described the incident as a “ridiculous national media stampede touched off by Gerald Henderson’s unfortunate foul on Tyler Hansbrough.” Featherston went on to urge that we “consider that Henderson received exactly the same punishment for a foul that even Roy Williams concedes was unintentional as Chris Paul received two years ago for deliberately punching Julius Hodge in the groin. Consider that Henderson received exactly the same punishment as Hodge got in 2002 when he deliberately threw a forearm into the back of Steve Blake’s head. That’s not to suggest that Henderson doesn’t deserve his suspension, only that the hysteria surrounding the play and its aftermath have been all out of proportion to the actual incident.”

I think Al Featherston and I would agree that it is time to move on.
The Big East Tourney starts today in New York. Teams that could claim to be on the bubble that absolutely have to win or they are done are West Virginia and DePaul. Some people think Syracuse is on the bubble, although my opinion is they are in even if they lose.

The A-10, Conference USA, MAC, and Pac 10 tourneys all kick off today also, although the only team in those four conferences that could make an argument to be in the bubble that plays today would be Washington, and they would need to get all the way to the finals to even enter the conversation.

Until tomorrow….