Final Four Predictions

The Final 4 has arrived. Four teams that nobody in America, even me, ever thought would be paired together to battle it out for college basketball's National Championship, are in Indianapolis to do just that. Since I know everyone is on pins and needles for my selections, probably so they can run to Vegas to pick the other side, I present to you, Saturday's winners in the National Semifinals:

LSU vs. UCLA: This is a battle of two excellent defensive teams. I would not be surprised if the winning team in this one scores in the 50s. LSU has the edge inside with their dynamic duo of Big Baby and Tyrus Thomas, while UCLA has the better perimeter players, such as Farmar and Afflalo. I think UCLA has the coaching edge, and I look for Ben Howland to be smart enough to do what Coach K was not last week, and pack in a tight zone and force LSU to beat the Bruins from the outside. Points will be at a premium for the Bruins as well, as the Tigers proved that they have the athletes on the perimeter to stymie a jumpshooting team. Look for Darrell Mitchell of LSU to be the X-factor in this one, and hit just enough jumpers to lead the Bayou Bengals to the first Championship game appearance of my lifetime. LSU 58, UCLA 54.

George Mason vs. Florida: I may be in the minority, but I think that George Mason can win this game. Here's why:

• Experience. George Mason has the benefit of having had its nucleus together for four years, with three seniors that have played together for a long, long time. Of course, Duke had a lot of seniors too! Florida, on the other hand, has no seniors or juniors that averagnig even 20 minutes a game. I can almost hear Stitzer imitating Billy Packer saying "senior guard play...."
• Versatility, scoring options: Geore Mason has beautiful balance, with five players averaging between 11 and 14 points per contest. When it is time to take a big shot, you cannot double anyone, as all five players are equally dangerous. This cannot be underestimated. Look at Duke, they took J.J. away, or J.J. took himself away, or whatever, and Duke was dead.
• Almost all of ESPN's experts are picking Florida to win it all. What the hell do they know? And why didn't any of them pick Florida two weeks ago. They will all be wrong again.
• Who in America will not be rooting for George Mason? It will be like a home game. When the crowd gets going, and it is a close game, the refs, who are only human, will probably favor Mason on a couple close calls. It is why home teams shoot more free throws than road teams. Same principle applies.

So, that is it. George Mason will win versus the Gators, and all of America will applaud. George Mason 73, Florida 68.

We will save the National Title prediction for Monday, on the off, off, off, off chance that one or both of my picks is somehow incorrect....

A Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round-Up, A Quick Look Back and Ahead at Duke, and Will Adam Vinatieri show up in Indianapolis (For the Final 4)?

The Duke season came to an abrupt end on Thursday in Atlanta against an athletic LSU team. Duke has struggled mightily since the end of January, so a loss to a team like the Bayou Bengals should not come as too big a surprise. However, it was disappointing from the standpoint that Duke played the worst game they played all year (and maybe in a few years) in a game they had every chance to win.

First, J.J. Redick, who played with grit and heart and pride and excellence for four straight years, laid a complete egg. He shot 3 for 18. Yes, LSU played good defense. But J.J. just played his worst game. The key moment ni the game came when Duke had struggled to take a 45-40 lead, had all the momentum, and Redick had his best, most open look of the night. This is a shot that not only goes in about 100% of the time when leaving from Redick’s fingertips, but, if good, probably ices the game for the Devils. It clanged out. It was just that kind of night.

With J.J. playing poorly, someone else had to step up to support Shelden, who played well. But this team has gotten too comfortable riding the backs of its two superstars, and there was nobody willing or able to step up when it mattered most. And just like that, the pursuit of a National title fell four wins short. And that, in a nutshell, is what is difficult about rooting for Duke. There is no margin for error. You either win it all, or you have failed. And on top of it, the entire country is rooting against you, as if you were Osama Bin Laden against Hulk Hogan in a steel cage match.

Next year is looking iffy for Duke. The key decision is whether Josh McRoberts will come back for his sophomore season or jump early to the NBA. McRoberts showed me enough this year for me to predict that if he stays, he will be a consensus first team All-America next year. If he comes back, with Paulus running the point, DeMarcus Nelson healthy all year and another strong recruiting class, Duke can be a top 10 team. If he bolts, they will probably be in the 15-20 range. The last time Duke was lower than a #3 seed was 1996, so hopefully McRoberts gets his ass back to school.

As far as the rest of the tournament goes, it is difficult to recall a better story than George Mason, who most people did not think would or should get in, get all the way to Indianapolis. The last story that I can think of in the tournament that was this stirring was when Bo Kimble led his Loyola Marymount club to the Elite 8 as they played for their fallen comrade, Hank Gathers (Kimble and Gathers both played at Dobbins Tech in Philly by the way). Who can forget the image of Kimble making every free throw in shot left handed in homage to his fallen brother.

As far as George Mason goes, I hear people making a stink about their playing the regional final in their backyard, that it was in essence a home game. I hate to tell those people, but unless this game was in the state of Connecticut (which the women’s regional final somehow was when #1 seed Duke had to win on the road against #2 seeded UConn, but I digress), the entire crows would have been pulling for the unheralded Patriots to beat the Criminals of the unintelligible Calhoun. Anyway, the fact that Mason was able to somehow win the game after UConn somehow forced the game to overtime was simply riveting. Of course, all of this should not have mattered, since Washington was completely robbed in their Sweet 16 match-up against the fellow Huskies when THEIR ENTIRE STARTING LINEUP was fouled out. I really do not want to hear how Duke gets all the calls ever again. Duke has never fouled out the entire opposing team this way before. As bad as the officiating was in that game, Lorenzo Romar blew the game by not fouling UConn when up by 3 in the last few seconds. When are these brilliant coaches going to realize that when up 3 with under ten seconds left, it is a much higher percentage play to foul than to let someone get off a wide open 20 footer that he hits 45% of the time.

The Villanova/Boston College game was extremely exciting, although again the refs made a very bad call that helped determine the outcome of the game. At least this time Nova was the beneficiary of said bad call, as everyone remembers how they got completely screwed last year when Curtis Sumpter was called for a bogus walk in the final seconds against North Carolina last year, helping Carolina escape and ultimately win the National title. Speaking of Nova, I read this morning that Kyle Lowry is considering making the jump to the NBA after his sophomore season. I think this would be a shame for two major reasons. One, I think Lowry can certainly benefit from another year in school. Second, there are few guys in the college game right now who are as good for the game as this guy. He runs around the court like a madman, pure hustle and heart, and makes everyone around him better. I really hope he stays. Although not as much as I hope McRoberts stays!

Was there a worse game in college hoops all season than the Memphis/UCLA game. It was just brutal to watch. Sloppy offense, turnovers, out of control players everywhere, horrific free throw shooting. Just an abomination. UCLA is a great defensive club, but did they win or did the Tigers choke? I would suggest the latter. And after Duke got knocked out Thursday, I thought Memphis might win it all. Shows you what I know!

I don’t mind college guys showing their emotion and crying. To me, it shows that they care. I do mind, however, star players bawling when the game is still within reach. If anyone wanted to know if Gonzaga had a chance to win in the last few seconds against UCLA after a monumental collapse, all you needed to do was look at Adam Morrison, who was already freaking crying. Just another reason why Redick should be player of the year over Morrison…he waited until the appropriate time to cry!

Only three more games to go this college hoops season, which is too bad. I would imagine that unless you have ties to UCLA, LSU, or Florida, almost everyone will be rooting for the Patriots to win the Championship. Now if they only had Adam Vinatieri to hit a key field goal for them, they might really have a chance.

Ritterbusch's Take: A Snapshot of a not-so-superNova

The rest of the weekly schedule will get pushed back by a day, with my take on Sweet 16 weekend and a summary of Duke's season tomorrow, Vegas summary Thursday, and
Final Four picks and Odds and Ends on Friday. Anyway, here is Jim Ritterbusch's take on Nova's performance.
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To: A Sad Nova Nation,

The situation that we all most feared came to fruition and served to seal our fate. On a night where the Wildcats guards could not find their collective outside shooting rhythm, we faced off against a team featuring perhaps the most athletically talented and mobile front line in the tourney. Many times in this forum we have all agreed that the Cats would be hard-pressed to win this single elimination competition given the make-up of the 05/06 squad and its extreme reliance on the long range jumper. In retrospect, it is really amazing that we won the BC game on Friday PM given the slumping play of Ray and Nardi. With a heavy heart (okay, perhaps a bit dramatic – its just hoops), I offer my commentary:

Villanova vs Boston College:
My first and foremost thought on this one – brutally tough game to watch; just ugly, ugly basketball. How the hell do we shoot 35% from the floor and beat Boston College? The primary answer – Big East POY, Randy Foye. He simply would not let us lose that game. He scored twenty-nine of our sixty points, and I believe every one of our OT points prior to Sheridan’s goaltending hoop. Just a tremendous exhibition of will and guts. The other answers – a) BC shoots an atrocious 8 – 17 from the foul line; in my opinion that alone warrants expulsion from The Dance and b) tough Nova “D” forcing the turnovers (21 to 10 edge) and keeping the Cats in the game.

Other thoughts on this one:
Nice effort by Cunningham and Clark; thirty-six hustling minutes from Dante C providing us with 8 boards and an athletic presence to mix it up with the BC bruising front-line
One of the most non-discussed athletic plays I think I have ever seen was the end of regulation block by BC’s Sean Williams. That guy got UP to get a piece of that shot. I thought that ball was on line and I could not believe he got over to get a finger or two on it.
Good line by Sheridan regarding the final hoop – “Biggest basket of my career and it didn’t even go in”.
I thought we got a break from the zebras on that walk call at the end of regulation. I thought that was a bad call. But, given our recent history of walk calls at the end of Sweet Sixteen contests, I would say we were “owed one” by the basketball gods.

Villanova vs Florida:
Although we hung in there and Foye made big shot after big shot to keep us in the contest, we ultimately did not deserve to win this game. In the end, Noah and Horford were able to skirt around our front line guys to grab boards and get off close range chip shots and slams. Taureen Green played a tough all-round game and made the clutch baskets. Despite all of this, we had our chances at 45 – 42 to knot things up but missed on long-range J’s by Foye and Nardi. Perhaps if one of those dropped we would have caused them to play tighter and let us back in. It did not happen.

I hesitate to single out one guy, but it was painful watching Allan Ray in this game (and tourney overall). He shot 3 of 15 from the floor and ultimately shot us right out of the game in that second half. For the four-game tourney Ray was 21 for 65. I heard somewhere that he was 3 for 32 in last year’s tourney (25% over 7 games). These are “take a seat on the bench” stats - atrocious for a starting shooting guard. Ray clearly cannot get into the paint to get off shots like Foye, and he is hard pressed to create much of anything off the dribble. To create some space he has developed this step-back jumper that results in this body-tilted fade-away jump shot. His body is never squared up on those shots and they rarely drop. If you were to look back at the UConn game, a game which he flat-out took over in the second half, you will see that he was always squared on his jumper (sometimes fading away, but not tilted).

The shooting stats of Lowry, Ray and Nardi combined in this game was 7 for 39 – also horrendous. Nardi is another guy you can point to as disappointing. However, I agree with Billy Packer when he said Nardi was not the same coming back from the tonsillitis episode. When he did return, it was definitely tougher for him to get in a groove being that Wright had to give up some of his minutes to Cunningham and Clark. Lastly, Will Sheridan was 0 for 6, with 1 point and five boards. We were not winning this game with these stats. It is always a bit tougher to digest a loss when you feel that you played way beneath your “A” game. If you get taken out while playing your best you are more inclined to tip the cap to the opponent. But, the result is what it is and that is one of the beautiful things about March Madness – you don’t get do-overs.

I don’t know if it was just my misery in watching us get our ass handed to us, but this “Joe Kim” Noah really irked me on Sunday. Did the guy need to let out a scream followed by a chest pound after every single play he made – it drove me nuts. Plus, the guy looks like a female impersonator. And, he is cocky as shit. Okay, perhaps if I saw him under different circumstances I would appreciate his unique talents and perhaps like him – but as of now, he irks me. This falls under the next-guy-to-date-your-ex-girlfriend-is-an-ahole theory. If you had met under different circumstances the two of you would probably like each other – but given the situation, you cannot like him.

Nice effort by Jason Frasor. I break his chops, but he does what he can given his diminished physical skills. Who knows what he could have been had he remained healthy. Imagine this team with a healthy Frasor and Sumpter. Obviously other guys would not have had the opportunity to blossom, so there is always the tradeoff.

General Tourney Notes:

• From my view, the two most entertaining games were UConn-Washington and UConn-George Mason; further, Marcus Sheridan had a tremendous tournament – in my mind, the best of anybody
• George Mason story is a great one – how can you not be rooting for them this weekend; and, there players all seem very likable
• Tyrus Thomas is the most athletic guy I have seen in a while. Some NBA people are saying he would be a top five pick if he came out this year; I did not see enough of him and do not know if he can shoot a jumper. If he can, he has a great NBA future at small forward
• What is with the cramping up in games; I don’t understand how this happens so often. These players and the programs have full time monitoring of nutritional intake, fluid intake, etc; these are elite athletes in prime shape – I just don’t see how/why this occurs so regularly
• Big Baby Davis – I also think this guy has a good NBA future. He has a nice nose for the ball, he uses his body to create space to get shots off, and he can hit 3-point shots; the question is will he go the Charles Barkley route and get in shape and stay focused on maximizing his talents, or, will he go the Hot Plate Williams/Chris Washburn, etc route and eat his way out of the league in two or three years.

Big expectations for Nova next year. If Sumpter is at full strength we are going to be at same level as we were this past year.

Quick Picks, Vegas

I am heading to Vegas tonight until Sunday, so the blog will be dark until next week. Unless of course you get a drunken post at some point, which will be entertaining if nothing else. Before I go, I wanted to tell you who I would be winning money on this week in the City of Sin:

• Duke (-6.5) over LSU. LSU is athletic, but not as athletic as I thought they were. The X-factors in this game are Tyrus Thomas (and his overall agility as he bounces back from a sprained ankle) for LSU and the Freshman combination of Paulus and McRoberts for Duke. If Duke's youngsters contine to prgress and play well, LSU will have to go home being content with a Sweet 16 run.
• West Virginia (+5) over Texas. It worries me that Texas handled a similar style in NC State so easily, but West Virginia has better players executing that offense. Look for their experience from being here last year shine through, and for them to eek out a tough ballgame.
• If this is the matchup in the Elite 8, I love Duke to beat West Virginia.
• Memphis (-6.5) over Bradley. Memphis is still not getting enugh credit for how good they are. They are explosive offensively and in my opinion the best defensive team in the country, led by Dils Co-National Defensive Player of the Year in Rodney Carney. Bradley has had a great run, but it ends here.
• Gonzaga (+3.5) over UCLA. Gonzaga has had as much pressure on them in the first two rounds as any teams not named Duke and UConn. They have not gotten to the Sweet 16 since 2001, and now they have and all the pressure is gone, and they can go back to the position that they feel much more comfortable in, that of the underdog. Look for the Zags to play their best game of the year to beat the very tough Bruins.
• Gonzaga will come up short in the next round, as Memphis will contain Morrison and Gonzaga will not be able to keep up with Memphis (unlike the Tigers, the Zag defense is less than stellar).
• Boston College (+2) over Villanova. This should be the best game of the Sweet 16. Can Nova's 4 guard offense hang in there with the very physical Eagles? I say yes. So it will be a tough, hard fought game, and I just believe the Eagles have more balance inside and out and will make more plays to get the job done. If I am wrong, it will be because my favorite non-Dukie, #1 Kyle Lowry, makes a big play at the right time for the Cats. Heart says Nova, head says BC.
• Florida (-3) over Georgetown. Florida quite simply has looked better than any team in America to date in the tourney. I think they have the athletes and the coaching to keep it going this weekend in Minneapolis. Does not take away from the tremendous job John Thompson III has done with the Hoyas this year, getting further than anyone thought.
• Florida over BC in the regional final.
• UConn (-6) will win but not cover against Washington in a Huskies versus huskies match-up. Look for a re-play of the Sweet 16 matchup in I believe 1999 when Calhoun's criminals edged Bob Bender's Washington club by a point. Let's call it 73-72 in this one.
• George Mason (-1.5) over Wichita State. Stitzer talked me into this one. Mason has better athletes, they are playing basically in their backyard, and they already won at Wichita. Gotta go with the Patriots to get to the Elite 8.
• I think UConn busts out and beats Mason by 20+ in the regional final, leading to another week of everyone proclaiming the Hoodlums as the National Champs. But that is why they play the games.

So that is it....Duke, Memphis, Florida and UConn in the Final 4 (and yes, Duke over UConn in the Finals, but let's not get ahead of ourselves quite yet).

Have a great weekend. Look for a Vegas post at some point soon.....

The Price is Right? Ted's Take on why he still loves Barry Bonds

As you will recall, my brother-in-law Ted Price wrote an article on the NHL about a month ago. Well, he is back and more mainstream. Today he tells us why Barry Bonds is the best and most influential baseball player of the past decade, and, most importantly, his favorite. I will say I agree with a lot of what Ted says, and to build, I find baseball incredibly hypocritical to retroactively make a stink about steroids, when at the time, no one was complaining about the home run wars as they fought to regain their popularity after the abominable strike of 1994. So here you go (I will be back tomorrow with my Sweet 16 picks).
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I am about to write something you don't hear people say very often and you never see in print:

I LOVE Barry Bonds.

Wait a minute, isn't Bonds a jerk? Isn't he a bad teammate? Isn't he aloof with the fans? Isn't he a cheater?

Well, like everything else, it depends on your point of view. I am warning you now, this column isn't about stats (we all know them), it's about emotion (we all have them) - and all the irrationality and blindness that goes along with that.

Since moving to the Bay Area 10 years ago, I have been to many Giants games (and now that I live two blocks from PacBell/SBC/AT&T Park, I have seen more than my fair share). From the frozen tundra that was the 'Stick in September to the little ballpark that revitalized a city, I have seen many a memorable moment. Most of which involved Bonds. I was there for number 73. I've been outside the ballpark watching a home run ball sail over my head and into McCovey Cove. I was there when - on his 40th birthday - he threw out a player at the plate to end the top of the 9th then sent everyone home happy with a walk-off homer. And I was there for the home opener last season when he was awarded his 7th MVP award and exclaimed, "I will be back!"

The point is when you have a player like Barry on your team, you are assured you will see something you've never seen before - something you can tell your grandkids about! And that is the other point: no one else has a Barry on their team because Bonds is a once-in-a-generation player. It must be the same feeling people had when they were watching Babe Ruth play or Walter Johnson pitch. And yes, because of all of this, I have become an unabashed Bonds apologist.

I will admit, Bonds brings a lot of this on himself. He has always had an adversarial relationship with the media - something he learned from his father. And, unfortunately, in this day and age if the media doesn't like you or think you are not treating them with respect... well, it can be tough. Case in point: every year, Manny Ramirez of the Boston Red Sox demands to be traded, sits out a few games to pout, even leaves left field during a pitching change to pee in a bottle behind the Green Monster. But you know, that's just Manny being Manny. Aren't his idiosyncrasies cute? Meanwhile, Bonds has a big chair in the locker room, and - gasp - he has more lockers than anyone else on the team! What a bastard! Do you know why he has that big chair? He bought it himself. You know why he has more locker space? Because he's Barry - freakin' - Bonds that's why! I would think he is treated a little differently than say Edgardo Alfonzo. No contract disputes, gives hometown discounts, wants to retire a Giant (when he should be a DH in the AL), man, what a jerk.

Another knock is that Barry can't win the big one. OK, I think that's fair. I do think winning championships is important to a player's legacy. And yes, he is the one who couldn't throw out Sid Bream - who I think was playing with a peg leg and an eye patch at the time - in the 1992 NLCS. But he is also the one who carried the 2002 Giants on his back and into the World Series. They were one Dusty Baker pitching move (ah, Dusty and his pitching moves: GENIUS!) away from winning it all. If they had, Bonds would have surely won the Series MVP. Instead I am left with two horrifying images in my head: Baker tossing the game ball to Russ Ortiz in Game 6 that woke up an inept Angles line up, and John Travolta celebrating with Michael Eisner in the owner's box when the Angels won Game 7 (as if either of them had actually been to a game that entire season). And don't get me started on the monkey and the inflatable sticks.

Compare that to say, oh, I don't know, A-Rod. Isn't he the greatest player in the game right now? Isn't his ticket punched to Cooperstown? Remind me again what he's done besides get into fist fights with Derek Jeter in the locker room? How about the other "greatest player" at that time - Ken Griffey, Jr. Remember how he was chosen for the all-century team instead of Bonds? Ask Griffey about that next time he rounds third.

How about what a bad teammate Bonds is? It's interesting that a lot of that talk came about when Jeff Kent was a Giant. There is the indelible image of Bonds and Kent getting into it in the Giants' dugout. Kent, the good 'ole boy HOF second baseman and Bonds, the a**hole. Kent showed his true colors when he went to the Astros and ripped the Giants, the team, the ballpark, the fans, even the uniform (true - he called them "creamsicles")!

So now we come to the big one: cheating. The story now is that after the McGwire/Sosa home run chase of '98 was over, Bonds decided he needed some of that spotlight, so he started taking steroids in '99. I admit, the numbers do play that out - to a point. I'll give you the anomaly that is 2001. But you figure that once the questions started, the (alleged) use had to subside or end altogether. What followed was a batting title, more homers than strikeouts and more MVP awards (including one unanimous). And, I'm not an expert, but I still don't understand how taking any of that stuff makes you hit the ball further, run faster or chase down fly balls (and I ask that for everyone who's been accused). I understand the bulking-up, but you still have to make contact with a 92 MPH fastball in order to do anything with it.

How about the breakdown? When Canseco, Caminitti, Sosa, Giambi, etc. stopped using, there was a noticeable difference in appearance and ability. Haven't seen that with Bonds. Yes, he missed a great deal last year due to his knees - but those have been bone-on-bone for years. And I will chalk that one up to some stupidity on Bonds' part. He used his own doctor rather than the team doctor for the knee surgeries. I say surgeries because he had to have a second one to clean up the mess the first one created. And you know the minute he entered the clubhouse last season he was greeted with a handshake and a pee cup - still nothing, and that's with MLB chomping at the bit. If you've seen the image of Bonds dressed up as *shudder* Paula Abdul this spring training, then you know - he's still cut.

Now there's word that Commissioner Bud Selig wants to investigate? Investigate what? Bonds and others used steroids - then what? How can you suspend anyone after the fact. Better yet, how can you suspend anyone for breaking a rule that - up until a year ago - didn't exist. I'm not saying that makes everything OK, I'm just wondering what action the League can take.

Last year I told my buddy Shane that Bonds should have won his 8th MVP award - seeing as how much the Giants stunk without him. I was only half kidding. When he came back last September, all of the sudden, the Giants were back in the hunt. Granted it was in a NL West division that Dils and I could have won ourselves, but the point is: Bonds means a lot to this team, to this organization, to the fans and to the game of baseball. There is no other player that makes you stop channel surfing when you see him at bat. No other player has people going back to their seats from the concession stands when he is up. No other player single-handedly changes a game or the other team's strategy just by showing up (he was twice intentionally walked with the bases loaded). Pedro in his prime? Clemens? Randy Johnson? Perhaps - but everyday? No one even comes close.

I have not read the SI article or the excerpts the SF Chronicle has been running - nor will I be reading either of the books coming out. Head in the sand? Yeah, a little bit. I am disappointed - he challenged the media to find something, and it looks like they did. But if you tell me you would not have wanted Bonds on your team for the last 10 years, you're lying - and you would have missed some amazing moments.

The NCAA Tournament is the Real Greatest Show on Earth

The last two days have re-confirmed why the NCAA Tournament is quite simply the best event there is. The first round was two straight days of wall-to-wall excitement, upsets, near upsets, and sheer joy to watch, with th epossible exception of having to listen to Billy Packer. Here are some of my takeaways from the first round:

• Of course I will start with the #1 team in the land, the Dukies. In 40 minutes against a #16 seed, their entire roster not named J.J. or Shelden scored a grand total of two, that's right, TWO, field goals. In addition, their point guard had seven turnovers. This team has about an hour to get its act together or J.J. Redick and Shelden Williams will be playing their last game ever for Duke today. That being said, I think they will come out and play much better today, J.J. will take advantage of GW's lack of discipline on the defensive end and score 30+, and Duke will survive and advance. But man did they look shaky Thursday.
• The Criminals of UConn had their typical non-focused performance last night, almost putting themselves in a hole that they could not dig out of against #16 seed Albany. By the way, after watching Albany, that team deserved better than a #16. If they had a #14 seed, they would have had a great shot at an upset last night. Great effort.
• The team that should be most ashamed of itself is Iowa. Iowa lost 14 point leads in both the first and second halves to lose to Northwestern St. How do you go through a year getting battle tested in the Big 10, then win the Big 10 tourney, only to choke like that (twice) against a #14 seed.
• Allan Ray looks like he is fine. But Villanova has to play better in round 2 to beat an Arizona team that played great in round 1. They will.
• UW-Milwaukee and Bucknell advanced to the second round for the second straight year. Can UW-M utilize their old coach Bruce Pearl's model to beat Florida like Pearl's volunteers did twice this year. A definite maybe, as I do not think the Gators have an answer for Joah Tucker.
• Bradley and Wichita St. proved that the Missouri Valley belongs in this tourney, beating Kansas and blowing out Seton Hall, respectively. Look for Wichita St to keep that run going against a shaky Tennessee squad today in round 2. Northern Iowa could have made it three for the Valley except they went cold in the second half against Georgetown, scoring only 8 points in the first 17+ minutes of the second half, and still only losing by 5.
• It was fun seeing Carolina sweat it out big time against murray St. I was also nice to see the ACC, which got bashed all year, go 4-0 in round 1. I think three of four could easily make it past this weekend into the Sweet 16. Not bad for a league in a down year.
• Do you think Jimmy Boeheim and Bill Self are going to start a support group for coaches whose teams get upset multiple years in a row? It is as if the year Syracuse beat Kansas in the finals was somebody's way of making up for all those 1st and second round exits for those programs over the years.
• Texas A&M was actually favored as a #12 over Syracuse as a #5. As well as they have played in the past six weeks, I do not believe they have the answers for a very strong LSU club today.
• Do you think Pacific's coach and players are still nauseous after letting BC escape with a win after being up 6 in overtime? I am guessing that one will sting for a few more weeks.
• My Final Four is still in tact after Round 1: Duke, UConn, Pittsburgh and Florida. I think Florida faces the toughest task in round 2, but Duke will not have it easy either. Florida will eek out a close one, Duke will pull away late, and Pitt and UConn will have an easy time of it in Round 2.
• Check back for more frequest updates (maybe just quick hitters) over today and tomorrow. Enjoy the action.

Wednesday Ramblings: Mike Davis, John Chaney, Lisa Loeb and NCAA Conspiracy Theorists

Before I get into my own ramblings, if any of you a) think the NCAA selection committe did a horrid job and/or is corrupt or b) enjoy the readings of Al Featherston, who is an excellent writer, check out this link, in which Featherston lambastes the committee for what he calls a corrupt selection process: http://www.dukebasketballreport.com/main/index.cgi?7363. For what it is worth, I think the committee did a terrible job (as evidenced by my picks), I think Featherston makes good points regarding the corruption that exists, and I disagree with him over which teams most deserve inclusion (I agree on Cincy, but I favor some small confernce teams over the FSUs and Michigans of the world).

Now onto my own thoughts for today...

Things I was wondering while the shampoo girl was washing my hair:

• Are Indiana fans secretly hoping they lose so they can end the Mike Davis era that much sooner?
• If Davis were to take Indiana on a magical ride back to the Final Four, would IU pull an Auburn (like they did with Sonny Smith in the 80s) and bring Davis back after he was jettisoned?
• Am I the only person in America that has watched the Lisa Loeb reality show more than once? It is like a bad car accident, a horrible tragedy but I just cannot look away.
• Do you think Southern University's AD is happy that both his Men's and Women's teams made the NCAA tournament or bitter that they both have to play Duke?
• Is there a better surprise in the world than when your two-year-old goes to sleep without a four hour fight?
• Is the World Baseball Classic still going on? I know two things that have happened: first, the USA stole a game from Japan on a horrific call, and second, they have still managed to lose two games.
• Is anybody happier about Drew Brees signing with the Saints than Matt Leinart? Anyone?
• Is there a better invention than Netflix. I pay $18 a month, and have not returned a movie in over three months. And I tell everyone I know how great Netflix is. Why didn't I buy stock in this company at the IPO?
• Does anybody realize that the NCAA Tournament started last night?
• Why is it 40 degrees colder than yesterday?
• Does anybody remember early this season when people speculated that Arizona, Kentucky, North Carolina and Kansas would all miss the NCAA tournament?
• Have you ever seen a #1 seed (Memphis) only giving 13 points to a #16 seed (Oral Roberts)? I have also never seen a #1 seed get less respect. Have you heard a single person predict Memphis will get to the Final Four?
• Could Kansas get knocked off in a huge upset for the second straight year? Young team, tons of buzz, playing a team that is peaking with their best player. Don't bet against it.
• How is a #5 seed that just beat Uconn, Cincinnati, Georgetown and Pitt in four days only giving 1 point to a #12 seed? Because Texas A&M will beat Syracuse.
• Does anybody outside of Philadelphia understand that John Chaney, despite his sometime odd behavior and poor decisions, did more for Philadelphia basketball and his own players that almost anyone in the game? Or he will he just be remembered as the guy who screamed "Those refs did a hell of a job for you tonight. I'll Kill Ya, I'll kill ya" to Umass coach John Calipari? (Does anyone have access to a sound clip of that moment?
• If the NBA ceased to exist, would anybody notice or care?
• Who is less popular: Kobe Bryant or George W. Bush?
• Why is it taking this girl so long to wash my hair?
• Is it Thursday yet? I am ready for tip off.

Dils Win or Die...NCAA Tournament Pool

Wow, what a weekend. The Duke/Boston College game is one of the better college hoops games this year. I think it is safe to say that JJ Redick is back!! As predicted here on this blog last week, Duke bounced back from back to back losses and won the ACC Championship. Now that the bracket has been unveiled for the tournament, it is time for me to unveil my NCAA Win or Die Pool. Rules are below. Please note that there is one link to enter the pool and another to enter your tiebreaker pick. Let me know if you have questions either in the coments section here or by emailing me at brian@dilsheimer.com.

• Each person can enter up to five entries (please note: on the web site we are using, you can enter up to 15 times. Please do not enter more than 5 times). Enter at http://www.tournamentpools.com/ (pool # 15712; password, devils)
• You can pick each team in the tournament ONE TIME ONLY (so don't waste Duke early!)
• The cost per entry is $40 per entry (winner takes entire pot less web site fees less any "gift"). Send your money right away to Brian Dilsheimer, 229 Righters Mill Road, Gladwyne, PA 19035. Do not make me chase down money, we are all adults, just send it before the tournament starts so I get everyting in by the weekend, next Monday at the latest.
• You pick one team each DAY (not round) of the tournament.
• Last entry standing takes all.
• As a tiebreaker, you pick one team, and your tiebreaker points are determined by that team's number of wins multiplied by their seed # (for example, if you take a #3 seed, and they win two games before getting knocked out, you get 6 tiebreaker points).
• Picks are due each day by noon et, 9:00 pt.
• You will enter your picks each day on the web site. The first day you will enter a pick PLUS a tiebreaker pick. (Note: to make picks, go to the web site, and go to the tab labeled "Picks", subtab "My picks"; to enter your tiebreaker team, you will go to the same tab labeled picks, then subtab "Tiebreaker Team". This "tiebreaker team" subtab is not up as of Sunday night at 7:30 pm but should be up by late Sunday night. If you do not make a tiebreaker pick, you get 0 tiebreaker points.
• You can still pick your tiebreaker team one time as your pick (i.e., you can pick your tiebreaker team once as a pick as well as for a single daily pick)
• Speaking of tiebreaker, the we site organizer does not want to put the tiebreaker in his drop down menu, so please use this link to make your tiebreaker pick: http://www.tournamentpools.com/picks.cfm?p=13. Let me know if you have any problems.
• The tournament starts this Thursday 3/16, so get your picks in by Thursday at noon et. More information, including a link to the web site, can be found below.
  If you were prviously in this pool, please make sure your email address is updated on the site if it has changed.
• Let me know if you have any questions. See below for more information.
• Pool ID: 15712
• Pool Password: Devils

Again, all Thursday picks AND tiebreaker picks are due by Thursday at noon et, 9:00 pt. Then, provided you win Thursday, picks for Friday are due Friday at noon et, and so on. A more comprehensive list of the rules can be found below in the original email.

Note: picture courtesy of dukebasketballreport.com

Northern Iowa, Hofstra, UAB, Utah St, and George Mason: The Answer Key to Who Should Be In & Who Should Be Out in the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament

As you know, today is one of the best days in sports, the day the NCAA Selection Committee announces the Field of 65. March Madness is underway. With that in mind, sine the committee usually has so much trouble, I thought I would list for them the 65 teams that should be included, in case they need this as a guide for their discussions. So, here we go, I present to you the right answers….

Locks:

1. Albany (America East Champion)
2. Duke (with a win today, Duke should get the #1 overall seed. Even if the Devils lose, they should avoid a possible meeting with Calhoun’s criminals until the National title game)
3. Boston College (could get a #3 seed if the Eagles upset the Devils today)
4. North Carolina
5. N.C. State (huge slump to end the season, could be one and done for Sendek’s crew next week)
6. Belmont (Atlantic Sun Champion)
7. Ohio State (probably won’t jump Memphis and Texas for a #1, but why not?)
8. Iowa
9. Illinois
10. Michigan State
11. Indiana
12. Wisconsin (another team that will have a tough time winning a game)
13. Texas
14. Kansas
15. Oklahoma
16. Texas A&M
17. Syracuse (they went from being out to being a 4-6 seed in four days. Wow. Now they will be lucky to survive one round)
18. Pittsburgh
19. Villanova (fortunately, Allan Ray will be OK, that looked nasty)
20. The Criminals of Connecticut (their new official name)
21. Marquette
22. Georgetown
23. West Virginia
24. Montana (Big Sky Champ)
25. Winthrop (insert Billy Ray Valentine voice. Big South Champ)
26. Pacific (Big West Champ)
27. UNC-Wilmington (Colonial Champ)
28. Memphis ( a probable #1 seed, though I would favor Texas or Ohio St)
29. UW-Milwaukee (Horizon Champ)
30. Pennsylvania (Ivy Champ)
31. Iona (MAAC Champ)
32. Kent (MAC Champ)
33. Hampton (MEAC Champ)
34. Oral Roberts (Mid Continent Champ)
35. Southern Illinois (Missouri Valley Champ)
36. Wichita St (Missouri Valley regular season winner)
37. San Diego St (Mountain West Champ)
38. Monmouth (NEC Champ)
39. Murray State (Ohio Valley Champ)
40. UCLA (Pac 10 Champ, #4 seed?)
41. Washington
42. Arizona
43. California
44. Bucknell (Patriot Champ)
45. Florida
46. LSU
47. Tennessee
48. Arkansas
49. Alabama
50. Davidson (Southern Champ)
51. Northwestern St (Southland Champ)
52. South Alabama (Sun Belt Champ)
53. Southern (SWAC Champ)
54. Nevada (WAC Champ)
55. Gonzaga (4th rated team will be a #3 seed, and lose in 2nd round, if they escape the #14)

That leaves, in my opinion, 16 teams fighting for the last 10 spots. Here is how I would tell the committee to stack em up:

1. Northern Iowa (beat Iowa, beat LSU, beat Wichita State twice. #23 in RPI)
2. Cincinnati (11 wins against RPI top 100; 7th best schedule in country)
3. Kentucky (they are Kentucky, so they get the benefit from the committee, plus they actually won enough games to earn their way in)
4. Bradley (won 20 games in brutal conference depite best player O’Bryant missing a lot of time; finished strong, winning 7 straight before losing in Missouri Valley Final)
5. Missouri State (they have the #19 RPI, the committee has never passed over anyone even close to this high)
6. George Mason (regular season champ in very tough Colonial Conference. Won at Wichita St. #26 RPI. They deserve to go)
7. UAB (Beat Memphis. Won enough games to overcome terrible strength of schedule)
8. Hofstra (beat George Mason TWICE in last ten days and lost in Colnial Finals. RPI #30)
9. Utah St (they would not be in this mess if they could MAKE A LAYUP)
10. South Carolina OR Creighton (The Blue Jays would a 6th team from the Missouri Valley, probably an impossibility with the committee, but their numbers stack up versus the teams on the outside looking in)

So, Creighton is the team that should be most closely watching the SEC Final today. If Florida wins, I would put Creighton in as the last team. If South Carolina wins, they will take the Blue Jays spot and Dana Altman and company will be bitterly disappointed. Well, that leaves the following schools as out. You can probably make some arguments for most of them to get in over the schools in the 56-65 slots, but they did not do enough in my mind to get in. So my last six out, in order, are:

1. Seton Hall (some big wins but way, way too inconsistent. Plus, I do not care what the committee says, they will be hard pressed to put a 9th Big East team in over some of the mid majors with just as good resumes)
2. Florida State (one big win. Besides, their students rushed the court too early. Maybe next year they can go back, figure it out, and get to the dance. Plus, their strength of schedule was only 112th despite playing in the ACC)
3. Western Kentucky (only three wins against the RPI top 100)
4. Michigan (only two wins in their last nine games)
5. Maryland (Marvel and Kalinock will have to get jazzed for the NIT)
6. Colorado (not enough big wins, cannot win on the road, collapsed in Big 12 tourney)

So that is my list. I know the committee will mess things up, and probably give a couple of the bids to BCS schools instead of the more deserving mid majors. But who knows, maybe they will look at this today, see the light, and just run with it. I hope so.

J.J. Redick, Adam Morrison, Kyle Lowry, Rodney Carney: Who Received the Coveted 1st Annual Dils Awards?

As the conference tournaments pick up full steam, everybody should be revving up for the excitement of the next 25 days. These three and a half weeks are what separate college basketball from any other sport, making it the best there is, with the possible exception of bowling or curling. So, that can mean only one thing: it is time for the First Annual Dils College Basketball Awards. It has to be just as exciting to be named 1st Team All Dils as it is to be 1st Team AP All American. So here we go….

Player of the Year: J.J. Redick. I went back and forth on this pick. And just to set the criteria, unlike some announcers I have heard who give the edge to Redick because of what he has accomplished during his career, I am only looking at this year. I give Redick the edge over Morrison despite the last four games in which he has struggled mightily. I differentiate the two players based on the overall quality of opposition and far superior defensive ability. And he has a way better haircut.

First Team All Dils

• J.J. Redick, Duke
• Adam Morrison, Gonzaga. No question, Morrison had an amazing year, averaging over 28 points and 5 boards a game, while shooting virtually 50% from the field. Still, I look for the Zags to get knocked out of the tourney pretty early. Their penchant for playing lots of close games is bound to catch up with them sooner or later, and later is here.
• Mardy Collins, Temple. If you have not seen this kid play, his stats may not convince you. He is averaging almost 17 points a game on just under 44% shooting. But if you have seen him play, you may agree with this choice. Collins is everything (almost 5 boards, 2.8 steals and 4 assists per) on a team without much else. Look for him to be a high lottery pick in the draft this year.
• Nick Fazekas, Nevada. Averaging 22 points and 10+ boards a game, this guy may not look like an athlete, but he can ball. Has made Nevada into a threat to do damage (again!) in the NCAA tourney.
• Glen Davis, LSU. The Big Baby averages 19 & 10 per game. He led the SEC Champ Tigers to the crown this year. He is only just starting to tap into his potential.

Second Team All Dils

• Shelden Williams, Duke. You know I wanted to put the landlord on my First Team, but I just cannot ignore the games in which he simply disappeared. Still a great season, though.
• Steve Smith, LaSalle. 20 points and 8 board for a guy with less around him than Mardy Collins, and he led this team to the #3 seed in the Atlantic 10 tourney. Smith benefited by staying in school for his senior season.
• Randy Foye, Villanova. On my first team at mid year, I thought he was only the third best player on his own team during the past month. Still, a great season.
• Brandon Roy, Washington. The country may find out about this kid, as the Huskies may have a little run in them to the Sweet 16.
• Marcus Slaughter, San Diego State. Just a monster for the Aztecs. Look for him to lead his team to a possible upset next week in the NCAAs, depending on the matchup they get.

Third Team All Dils

• Chris Lofton, Tennessee
• Leon Powe, California.
• Rodney Carney, Memphis
• Mike Gansey, West Virginia
• Craig Smith, Boston College

All Coaching Team. I tried to pick a coach of the year, but there were too many guys that have done a tremendous job this year. Based on my list, I guess all parties involved (UNC, KU, Illinois) are happy with the coaching carousel that involved Roy Williams, Bill Self and Bruce Webber three years ago.

• Roy Williams, UNC. The talk at the beginning of the year was whether they could get into the NCAAs at all. Now the talk is about whether they can defend their title.
• Bruce Pearl, Tennessee. NO offense to John Brady, but how does Pearl not win Coach of the Year in the SEC?
• Bruce Webber, Illinois
• Thad Motta, Ohio St. And his recruiting class for next year will make them a National Championship contender.
• Bill Self, Kansas. Has anyone done a better mid season turnaround this year than Self with his Jayhawks?

Co-Defensive Players of Year

• Brad Goldberry, UNC-Wilmington
• Rodney Carney, Memphis

Note: A lot of people will give this award to Shelden Williams from Duke. While I believe the Landlord is a great help defender, I just do not think he is a good enough ball defender to win this award like he did last year.

Co-Freshmen of the Year

• Tyler Hansbrough, UNC. Please go pro, please go pro, please go pro, please go pro….
• Tyrus Thomas, LSU. Getting this kid back healthy in time for next week is critical if the Tigers want to make a run.

"Intangible" Player of the Year

• Kyle Lowry, Villanova. Absolutely just one of my favorite players ever to watch. It is a virtual lock that this guy will come out of nowhere to get at least two loose balls each game. He is quite simply the heart and soul of this Villanova club, and I would say more important to their title hopes than either Foye or Allan Ray (not that they are not critical as well). Just watch this kid play one time and I guarantee you will be a fan. Look for him to be a First Team All American next year.
• Honorable Mention: Brad Buckman, Texas. This is a lunch-pail type guy who averages 10 points and 7 rebounds as a senior, but somehow just makes this team better.

Underachievers (So Far):
Michigan State
Maryland
Kentucky

If you are like me, you can’t wait for this weekend of hoops, Sunday’s selection show, and then let the pools and games begin!!! Enjoy.

Kirby Puckett: 1960-2006.

When I moved to Minneapolis for the summer in 1993 and again to stay in the summer of 1994 (I was there for six years, moving to Austin in 2000), there was nobody that was more popular in the state of Minnesota than Kirby Puckett. Nobody. Not even close.

Puckett was the unequivocal leader on a team that defied baseball odds. The Twins were a small market team in every sense of the word, yet they were able to win the World Series twice by hopping on Puck’s broad shoulders, in 1987 and 1991. In the epic Game 1 of the ’91 Classic, it was Puckett who robbed Ron Gant with a leaping grab at the wall and then hit a game winning home run in the 11th inning to give the Twinks and Jack Morris a 1-0 win.

Puck put up very good, almost great numbers during his career. He hit .318 for his career and averaged almost 200 hits per year during his 12 year big league career, a career cut short when he got glaucoma in one eye before the 1996 season. It was not his stats, however, that made him a first ballot Hall-of-Famer with the baseball writers. Instead, I would imagine, it was his smile, his leadership, and his legendary stature despite his lack of stature. Puck got in because he was a very good player who was a better guy and larger than life in the process.

When glaucoma forced him out of the game, Puck’s life, from all accounts, fell apart. His wife left him after accusing him of a history of violence and cheating, and he was accused of sexual assault by another woman (later acquitted), in addition to putting a lot of weight on.

This apparent dichotomy between the public superstar who always had a smile on and the private man who struggled with issues like the rest of us, and perhaps did not deal with them as effectively as he should have illustrates the danger in treating our sports heroes as our role models. Maybe Charles Barkley was right after all. We have seen further evidence of this when Kobe Bryant, although having rape charges dropped, paid a reported $5 million to the alleged victim to make the ugly incident go away.

I was mad at Puckett. I was never a Twins fan, but the guy was likeable, and I had a lot of friends who loved this guy. And he wasn’t the guy they fell in love with on the fields. Sometimes, as a sports fan, you want the persona that is created in the field and in front of the microphones and by the p.r. and advertising agencies to be real. You want that to be the real guy. When it turns out that the guy who you thought was real was as much a fantasy as the players you drafted in your Fantasy League, it is disappointing. So, I was mad, and I rooted for him to be convicted, because where there is smoke there is fire and how could a guy with so much going for him and who meant so much to so many potentially toss it all away for no reason?

But now I realize that life is complicated. Until and unless you can walk a mile in someone’s shoes, it is difficult to judge them too much. Because we never have all the facts and even if we did, don’t we have enough heavy issues to deal with in our day to day lives?

So in the end, Puckett helped teach me a valuable lesson, one that my mother has been preaching since I was a young dude. Sports are just sports, and they are not life and death, and there are more important things (at least a few). So in the end, I forgave him, and I thanked Puckett, for helping to shed some light on what is important.

And now Kirby Puckett is dead. Boom. Out of nowhere. Two days ago he was just a retired 45 year-old ex-ballplayer. Now he is the second youngest member of baseball’s Hall of Fame to die (after Lou Gehrig). 45 years old. It hits hard. It makes me feel mortal, and vulnerable, and a little scared. If it can happen to a Hall of Fame ballplayer, it can happen to any of us, any time, any where. Nobody is promised tomorrow, so make the most of today.

I will still root my butt off for all my teams. I will be yelling and screaming for Shelden and J.J. to cut down the nets in Indianapolis next month, and for Jimmy Rollins to break Joe D’s hitting streak, and for the Birds to bounce back nicely next year. But if they come up short, I can still go and kiss my kids, tell them I love them, and teach them a valuable lesson in the city of brotherly love. There’s always next year. Hopefully.

Rest in Peace, Kirby. Kirby Puckett 1960-2006.

J.J. Redick, Greg Paulus, Coach K: This Duke Team is Down and In Trouble, but Not Out

It was as if Luis Gonzalez had just hit a bloop single over the shortstop to end the Yankees reign of terror in 2001. On Saturday night, the team that has replaced the Yankees as the most hated team in America, the Duke Blue Devils, lost their second game in a row, this time in the comfy confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium, on Senior Day, to their most hated of rivals, the Tar Heels. It was as if, after a momentary surge of momentum and emotion surfaced early on giving the Dukies a 13-2 lead, they were outplayed, outhustled, and outworked (sounds like a Survivor episode) on their way to a 5-point loss.

And America rejoiced. You see, at some point over the last 20 years, Duke has gone from the most beloved team in college basketball (trust me, it’s true) to the most hated. It is pretty obvious why. Their players are overall classy and clean cut, the program does not cheat, their coach does things the right way and has his priorities in order, their players graduate, and their fans are passionate and sometimes creative. But this is a story for another day. The discussion for today should center around whether this Blue Devils team, who was the favorite to win the National Championship coming into the season, can recover and make a run in the Big Dance.

Well, Duke has some major issues. First, as predicted first here on this blog a few weeks ago, J.J. Redick is tired. At least he looks tired. And if he is not tired, he is in a major slump. But either way, J.J., who missed 15 of his last 16 shots on Saturday night, has been colder than Minneapolis in January over the past few weeks, shooting less than 29% over his past 4 games after shooting over 50% for the season to that point. Not only is his shot way off, but he seems to not be moving around the court with the same energy that makes him such a great player. Clearly, if J.J. does not bounce back, Duke will be bounced out, and early.

Redick is not the only cog that is misfiring. Greg Paulus is just as key to the Devils success. Paulus, in six of his last eight games, has had at least 4 turnovers. As the point guard, he has to cut down on turnovers, while showing an ability to drive the ball and finish if opponents are going to take away the “drive and dish” option.

While Redick and Paulus have not performed well offensively, the whole team has played poorly defensively. Tough man to man defense has been a hallmark of this Duke program for the past two decades and change. Now, it seems that the players are not communicating, as opposing players are driving down the lane with relative ease. In addition, it seems like our big men are falling into a habit over the past five years of getting into too much foul trouble, which is hard to believe since Duke has gotten every call these past 15 years.

So, in summary, they are playing badly defensively. They are playing poorly offensively. They lack energy, and they are getting into key foul trouble. But before all of America rejoices as they await the impending early exit of the once mighty Blue Devils from the NCAA Tourney, as Lee Corso would say, “Not So Fast My Friend!” Here are all the reasons that Duke is still a team to be feared:

1. J.J. Redick is not dead yet. J.J. has been in a slump, but I am not buying that he can’t and won’t pull out of it. J.J. has worked his butt off his whole life to be an NCAA Champion, he passed up the NBA last year for the single purpose of cutting down the nets this year, and he clearly, if anything, has the heart of a lion. J.J. also has the experience of understanding how to avoid a tournament collapse, having dealt with that during the past couple years. Look for J.J. to come back with a strong ACC and NCAA tournaments. This is the culmination of everything this kid has been dreaming of since he was seven years old and Laettner beat Kentucky. If he goes down, it will be swinging.
2. Experience. Duke has four seniors that play significant roles. These guys have played in 11 NCAA tournament games to this point. They know what they are up against, they know how to prepare, and they know how to win. They have a coach that has more wins in the NCAA Tournament than anybody else…ever.
3. Speaking of Coach K, whether you like him or hate him, he is the best coach in the game. He has been through every conceivable scenario, including late season losses, and he will have this team ready to play. In 1988, with a team less accomplished than this, the Blue Devils lost three games in late February back-to-back-to-back and they ended up in the Final Four. Coach K will not panic.
4. DeMarcus Nelson. He is finally healthy, and has clearly developed into a reliable third scoring option on offense. He has averaged 12 points per game over his last six games, and scored in double figures in all six of them. He almost single handedly brought them back in the Carolina game in the last three minutes, hitting two huge threes and making a few other big plays.
5. There is time. Duke still has 17 days and four or five games between now and when they figure to be tested in an elimination game. That is an eternity. They could be in trouble if they were playing a Sweet 16 game against a #4 or 5 seed today, but they are not. They will be playing differently by this point.

So, as you can see, Duke, the team everyone loves to hate, has some major problems right now, but they still have plenty of time and resources to right the ship. So, how do I think they will do? I believe they will bounce back and win the ACC tournament this weekend (I have previously said a semifinal loss would suit this team best as seeding would not be affected and it would give them a little rest, but that was before they were coming off two losses; now I think they will be ornery and focused, and that should be good enough to beat everyone else in the ACC). I think they will win their first two rounds, eek by a close one in the Sweet 16, and then win fairly easily in the Elite 8 (where Coach K is something like 10-1). So I predict the Dukies will be back in the Final 4! Once there, we will have to see how they are playing and who else gets there. That will be fun to debate when it happens.

I love March. Let’s get the party started!!!

Note: picture courtesy of espn.com

The 2006 World Championship of Green Valley Poker

What do these two have in common? They have both won major poker championships.

It was just like the World Series of Poker Main Event last night at the Green Valley Poker Tournament. Sort of. Let’s check out the similarities. The WSOP Main Event had just over 5,600 players this year. Our tournament had just under 56. The WSOP has a $10,000 buy-in. We had a buy-in at 1% of $10,000. The WSOP has Greg Raymer. We had Greg Marks. So you can see how surprised I was not to see any media covering the event. Which leaves me no alternative but to capture the essence right here.

When I arrived at the event, the excitement level was as high as a Florida State crowd with 1.7 seconds to go in a big home victory. I immediately of course made my way to the open bar. Now this presented somewhat of a dilemma. One of the few things I enjoy more than a Captain and Seven is a Captain and Seven from an open bar. But we all know that your poker inhibitions let up after a few trips to the bar. I figured a normal session at a 90 minute open bar, could lead me to play like Luterman, calling “all-in” on the first hand before even looking at what I had.

Everybody paid the entry fee and seats were randomly assigned. So of course I sit down right next to my brother-in-law. The last time I played poker with him I went all-in with AK to his KK, and of course no Ace came up. So I begin by warning him to leave me alone, or I would tell my sister on him, or better yet my mother. He knows he is no match for them, so he agrees to leave me alone. On the other side of me is a guest to the tournament named Tony Mamo, who seems like a good enough guy. Everybody starts with $4,000 in chips, blinds start at 25/50, and blinds increase every 15 minutes. With the pace of play that was going on at my table, that translates to blind increases roughly every four hands.

So play begins. My first hand is something like 10 4, which I fold faster than Georgia Tech with a double digit second half lead. And it goes on like this for a while. At one point, I get a pair of 10’s, raise to 500, get called, and then have to fold when a King and a Jack come on the flop. Meanwhile, while I am getting blinded and flopped down to about 2,500 in chips, Getson (aforementioned brother-in-law) is building a chip stack bigger than Frito Lay. He is clearly the chip leader at our table, and probably overall, pulling full houses on the flop, straights and flushes on the river, and in general dominating the field. Of course, as soon as he uttered the words “I just always pull great cards, what can I say,” I knew it was a matter of time.

People started dropping like flies. Billy Bredt, out. Jarrett Wells, out. Ken Dash, out. Meanwhile, I was getting blinded down and was pretty short stacked. I had about 1,700 chips left with blinds at 200/400 and a 50 ante. So I got Ace Jack and went all-in. The dude on the big blind (who I do not know), called me with A 7 suited (diamonds). That was cool because I was almost a 5-to-2 favorite to win the hand. Flop comes out 8 5 2….diamond….diamond….diamond. Game over. Thanks for playing.

Baseball has the Mendoza line. If you can’t hit above the Mendoza line, widely considered .200 although Mario Mendoza was a career .215 hitter, you are widely considered a failure. Green Valley has enacted the Luterman Line, which basically says, if you can’t outlast Bill Luterman in a poker tournament, just drop your money off at the door next time. Well, when I got knocked out, old Luterman was still hanging in there. Imagine if the media did show up, and I had Lon McEachern or Normad Chad ask something like “Dils, with this talented field you couldn’t expect to win it all, but are you disappointed that you couldn’t outlast Bill?” How do you answer that question? Of course, like three hands later his Q Q was knocked out by A A (by the Tony Mamo who I was sitting next to earlier). Now that is painful.

People continued to drop out, and the ultimate demise of Getson after his taunting the poker Gods was quick and painful! He went from one of the chip leaders to out of the tournament in about two hands. The excitement was building. These great champions were battling it out like Duke and North Carolina. When John Rodack dropped out in the always painful “first place out of the money spot,” the five money spots were reserved by Brian Levine, Tony Mamo, Billy Glazer, Art Stern, and Sam Donsky. If you did not know better, you would think you were watching Phil Hellmuth, Phil Ivey, Greg Raymer, Sammy Farha and Dan Harrington going at it. The only differences were the size of the crowd, lack of television cameras, prize money being battled over, and the quality of play. Otherwise, you would have never known the difference.

Donsky bowed out, followed shortly thereafter by Levine. That left Stern, Mamo, and Glazer to fight for the title. Now, as I said before, Mamo seems like a nice fellow, but I knew he had no chance to win this thing, because his wife was there watching, huddled up all close to him like they were McNabb and T.O., in the good old days. There has to be something in the rulebook that says “Thou who brings they wife to poker event will not take down the title.” I am only guessing there, so do not pull the rule book out.

Stern bowed out next, leaving Mamo and Billy G to fight it out. The winning hand was Q 3 for Glazer, when he turned a queen on the flop and another on the turn to end Mamo’s pain and beat his pair of 3’s. Well, not really painful. He still won over a quarter of a million dollars for his second place finish, less a slight withholding for taxes.

Meanwhile, Billy Glazer is the Champion of the World. This has not been substantiated, but the word is his company has been put on the block this morning, so that he can focus on playing poker professionally full time. He has already signed up for this year’s WSOP Main Event. If I were Phil Hellmuth, I would be very aware of what was going on here, as the power is clearly shifting in the poker world.

In the meantime, I am already plotting my strategy for the next Green Valley poker tournament, starting with talking Billy Bredt into letting us do re-buys…

Note: Pictures courtesy of pokernews.com and kpg.biz

An Open Letter to Florida State Seminole Basketball Fans

Dear Florida State fans:

Congratulations on your exciting and important college basketball win last night over the #1 team in the land, the Duke Blue Devils. With an NCAA tournament bid on the line, your club played with tenacity and incredible heart while executing flawlessly. This should punch your ticket to the Big Dance, no matter what Joe Lunardi says. And just so you know, we as Duke fans will be rooting hard for your success once you get there, as we do all our ACC brethren (except sometimes secretly Carolina, shhhh). We hope you will return the favor and root for us to win it all once your ride has ended.

As experts in crowd participation, I, on behalf of the Dukies, wanted to help you out with some advice so that next time you can get your celebration just right. I think we can all agree it just missed last night, kind of like Shaq and his typical free throw attempt. First of all, I know that Florida State is a public institution that does not quite have the academic credentials of Duke. However, I am all but certain that there are at least some elementary math classes that can teach you the basics. In a nutshell, the game is over when the clock gets to 0.0 (if it helps think of it as follows: “the game ends when the time matches Blutarski’s grade point average: Zero Point Zero). Until that point, you may want to avoid rushing the court. You have to admit, it would have been a tad embarrassing had your blunder cost your team the game. I wonder how that might have affected student – athlete relations on campus.


Next, just a thought, but it may be more impressive to act like you have been there before. I am fairly confident that the Cameron Crazies will never rush the court if we are fortunate enough in the future to beat the Seminoles in a home game. You guys have beaten Duke three of the last five years in the Leon County Civic Center (is that still where you play?), act like you expect it, not like it is the biggest moment in school history since Burt Reynolds got the lead in Cannonball Run. Maybe with the football team losing five games this year and Bobby Bowden being older than the cold cuts they use at the deli next door, this really was a watershed moment. But still.

Another piece of advice: if you do insist on rushing the court, you may want to cut out the “Over-rated” cheer. If we are so overrated, and not all that good, what in the world are you rushing the court in the first place for? Look at it as a chance to show how good you are, not how bad or overrated we are.

In summary, successful poker players never let their opponents see their “tell” sign. Mike McD. was able to take down Teddy KGB after he figured out his tell and got inside his head. So, don’t eat OREO’s while you play poker, and don’t rush the court when you win anything less than an ACC or National Championship. It kind of tells people you don’t expect that much out of yourself.

One more thing. As long as I mentioned Bobby Bowden before, if you see him around campus, please tell him how badly I feel for him that his granddaughter allegedly has naked pictures of her floating around the Internet, which of course you can find very easily by just googling “Lauren Bowden.” I mean especially in the spread eagle position she is sitting in, just posing for the camera, this must be very embarrassing for the Bowden family, so please send my thoughts.
Thanks for listening. We will look forward to continued brotherhood and sportsmanship in the near future. Oh, and by the way, if we ever beat you in football, we are rushing the field!

Best Regards,

Dils

Note: Picture courtesy of espn.com

Bud Selig is Stupid, Ronald Steele is SEC Player of the Year, J.J. Redick Looks Tired

The World Baseball Classic starts tomorrow. Whose terrible idea was this anyway? Was the pitch to Bud Selig something like “Hey we will get all the Major League’s best players, subject them to injury so they can play in a tournament that nobody will watch or care about, especially since it is right on top of the NCAA tournament, the beginning of the stretch runs in the NBA and NHL, the Oscars, etc. Maybe if we can get one of them to have a season ending injury, we can get some press out of it.” This idea goes right along with having a tie in the All-Star Game, having the All-Star game decide home field in the World Series, no salary cap, and smudging your entire game with a cloud due to ignoring steroids for so long. At what point do the owners realize that Bid Selig is a putz who is ruining their sport. At this pace, do you think baseball will still even be around for our grandchildren to enjoy?

Ronald Steele has to be the Player of the Year in the SEC. Alabama lost their best (by a wide margin) big man in Chuck Davis, and Steele is basically carrying them into the NCAA tournament on his back. I would put him on the first team SEC with Chris Lofton of Tennessee, Big Baby Glen Davis from LSU, Taurean Green from Florida, and Ronnie Brewer of Arkansas. Tyrus Thomas of LSU is my Freshman of the Year, and Coach of the Year is Bruce Pearl of Tennessee. More on my college hoops season awards next week….

I watched the Duke/Temple game in person over the weekend. Everybody is saying that the pressure of chasing all these records is what is bothering J.J. Redick and that it is not fatigue. I disagree. He looked tired Saturday, both during and after the game. One of the things that makes J.J. the best player in the country is he outworks everyone, running all over the place. On Saturday, he just stood around a lot, and in general made himself a lot easier to guard. After the game he looked exhausted when he got interviewed. I hope these so called experts are right and I am wrong and we see a big bounce back from J.J. this week, we shall see.

One of Duke’s problems the last 7 years is that they have not had a ton of depth and they play all three games in the ACC tournament, and then do not have enough left for the NCAAs, and lose to a #5 seed (Indiana, Florida, Michigan St) in the Sweet 16. As a Duke fan, losing in the semis of the ACC would not be the worst thing in the world.

Curtis Sumpter announced yesterday that he is taking this year as a redshirt, and will return to Villanova next season for his senior year. This is a good decision for Villanova, who will not risk upsetting their chemistry that they have developed throughout the season, and for Sumpter, who would risk throwing away a year of eligibility if Nova was knocked out early from the tournament. He can only be better off by showing his stuff and his health to NBA scouts over a full season. Good call.

A horse sold for $16 million yesterday. How can this possibly be a good financial decision? It seems to me the only chance this investment could pay off is if this horse wins a triple crown race and his stud fees are through the roof. That has to be a long shot, no matter how good the horse’s workouts have been. Oh, and by the way, this two year old horse has NEVER run a race before. I wish I had $16 million to play on the lottery. Wow.