J.J. Redick, Greg Paulus, Coach K: This Duke Team is Down and In Trouble, but Not Out

It was as if Luis Gonzalez had just hit a bloop single over the shortstop to end the Yankees reign of terror in 2001. On Saturday night, the team that has replaced the Yankees as the most hated team in America, the Duke Blue Devils, lost their second game in a row, this time in the comfy confines of Cameron Indoor Stadium, on Senior Day, to their most hated of rivals, the Tar Heels. It was as if, after a momentary surge of momentum and emotion surfaced early on giving the Dukies a 13-2 lead, they were outplayed, outhustled, and outworked (sounds like a Survivor episode) on their way to a 5-point loss.

And America rejoiced. You see, at some point over the last 20 years, Duke has gone from the most beloved team in college basketball (trust me, it’s true) to the most hated. It is pretty obvious why. Their players are overall classy and clean cut, the program does not cheat, their coach does things the right way and has his priorities in order, their players graduate, and their fans are passionate and sometimes creative. But this is a story for another day. The discussion for today should center around whether this Blue Devils team, who was the favorite to win the National Championship coming into the season, can recover and make a run in the Big Dance.

Well, Duke has some major issues. First, as predicted first here on this blog a few weeks ago, J.J. Redick is tired. At least he looks tired. And if he is not tired, he is in a major slump. But either way, J.J., who missed 15 of his last 16 shots on Saturday night, has been colder than Minneapolis in January over the past few weeks, shooting less than 29% over his past 4 games after shooting over 50% for the season to that point. Not only is his shot way off, but he seems to not be moving around the court with the same energy that makes him such a great player. Clearly, if J.J. does not bounce back, Duke will be bounced out, and early.

Redick is not the only cog that is misfiring. Greg Paulus is just as key to the Devils success. Paulus, in six of his last eight games, has had at least 4 turnovers. As the point guard, he has to cut down on turnovers, while showing an ability to drive the ball and finish if opponents are going to take away the “drive and dish” option.

While Redick and Paulus have not performed well offensively, the whole team has played poorly defensively. Tough man to man defense has been a hallmark of this Duke program for the past two decades and change. Now, it seems that the players are not communicating, as opposing players are driving down the lane with relative ease. In addition, it seems like our big men are falling into a habit over the past five years of getting into too much foul trouble, which is hard to believe since Duke has gotten every call these past 15 years.

So, in summary, they are playing badly defensively. They are playing poorly offensively. They lack energy, and they are getting into key foul trouble. But before all of America rejoices as they await the impending early exit of the once mighty Blue Devils from the NCAA Tourney, as Lee Corso would say, “Not So Fast My Friend!” Here are all the reasons that Duke is still a team to be feared:

1. J.J. Redick is not dead yet. J.J. has been in a slump, but I am not buying that he can’t and won’t pull out of it. J.J. has worked his butt off his whole life to be an NCAA Champion, he passed up the NBA last year for the single purpose of cutting down the nets this year, and he clearly, if anything, has the heart of a lion. J.J. also has the experience of understanding how to avoid a tournament collapse, having dealt with that during the past couple years. Look for J.J. to come back with a strong ACC and NCAA tournaments. This is the culmination of everything this kid has been dreaming of since he was seven years old and Laettner beat Kentucky. If he goes down, it will be swinging.
2. Experience. Duke has four seniors that play significant roles. These guys have played in 11 NCAA tournament games to this point. They know what they are up against, they know how to prepare, and they know how to win. They have a coach that has more wins in the NCAA Tournament than anybody else…ever.
3. Speaking of Coach K, whether you like him or hate him, he is the best coach in the game. He has been through every conceivable scenario, including late season losses, and he will have this team ready to play. In 1988, with a team less accomplished than this, the Blue Devils lost three games in late February back-to-back-to-back and they ended up in the Final Four. Coach K will not panic.
4. DeMarcus Nelson. He is finally healthy, and has clearly developed into a reliable third scoring option on offense. He has averaged 12 points per game over his last six games, and scored in double figures in all six of them. He almost single handedly brought them back in the Carolina game in the last three minutes, hitting two huge threes and making a few other big plays.
5. There is time. Duke still has 17 days and four or five games between now and when they figure to be tested in an elimination game. That is an eternity. They could be in trouble if they were playing a Sweet 16 game against a #4 or 5 seed today, but they are not. They will be playing differently by this point.

So, as you can see, Duke, the team everyone loves to hate, has some major problems right now, but they still have plenty of time and resources to right the ship. So, how do I think they will do? I believe they will bounce back and win the ACC tournament this weekend (I have previously said a semifinal loss would suit this team best as seeding would not be affected and it would give them a little rest, but that was before they were coming off two losses; now I think they will be ornery and focused, and that should be good enough to beat everyone else in the ACC). I think they will win their first two rounds, eek by a close one in the Sweet 16, and then win fairly easily in the Elite 8 (where Coach K is something like 10-1). So I predict the Dukies will be back in the Final 4! Once there, we will have to see how they are playing and who else gets there. That will be fun to debate when it happens.

I love March. Let’s get the party started!!!

Note: picture courtesy of espn.com