Philthys, NCAA & NFL Picks, Week 5 Win or Die Picks

The Phillies first foray into the playoff world has not gone according to plan. In a nutshell, they have been a complete disaster in the first two games. If their plan was to put their backs up against the wall because that is where they play their best ball, then mission accomplished. A few observations from the ballpark yesterday:

• J-Roll came up big, homering on the first pitch of the game to cut Colorado's lead to 2-1, then hitting a 2-run triple in the second inning to give the Phillies their only lead of the series.
• Charlie Manual did a great job over 162 games, keeping spirits up when the Phils got out of the gate slowly and keeping everyone believing. But his lack of strategic and tactical ability is so evident in a playoff situation where every move is magnified, I just think you cannot bring him back if your goal is to win a championship. For example:
• You can't walk an 8th place hitter with 2 outs and a runner on because a) it will make Colorado take a pitcher out that you have hit, and b) you let them turn their lineup over.
• You cannot take out your starting pitcher, your second best pitcher all year, with a 3-2 lead in the 4th inning to bring in your 3rd best starting pitcher, who is not used to coming in with men on base. Just horrid. Grand slam.
• The by product of all this of course is that then you have to bring Jose Mesa into a game that is still up for grabs. Mesa, who has a 13.50 ERA over his last 15 appearances, is not a good answer in a game that is still up for grabs. 4 runs later, game over.
• Why does Carlos Ruiz never get pinch hit for? Down 5 runs in the 8th inning with the bases loaded and 2 out, how do you not let Chris Coste hit for Ruiz (since he used up all his other pinch hitters earlier)? Isn't that why you carried three catchers on the roster in the first place?

(Note: Good news: I went to see Springsteen last night. Solid show. Not his best ever, but solid as always. Bruce mentioned the Phillies and he said "I predict they will rise again, but I cannot guarantee it." I feel much better now...)

In other baseball, it looks like I am well on my way to predicting all four series wrong. The Cubs are down 0-2 to Arizona after losing to soft tossing Doug Davis last night. The Yankees got smoked 12-3 by Cleveland last night. Is it just me or is Wang just a different pitcher than he was at the end of last year, when he was basically unhittable? Look for Pettitte to pitch a good one today in Cleveland, and the Angels will be counting on Kelvim Escobar to come up big for them and to even the series against Boston. (Interesting stat from Stitzer, the winner of the last 7 Yankee first round series has been the team that lost Game 1! 4 times, Yanks, 3 times opponent).

As far as my football picks go, it looks like maybe I am picking it up a bit. Let's see if I can keep things going this week.

NCAA (Last Week, 7-2; Overall, 9-15, 37.5%)

Wisconsin (+2.5) at Illinois. I am aware that picking against Illinois at home last week was one of my two defeats, but I think Wisconsin is better and more consistent than the Nittany Lions, and I do not think the Illini can do it again.

Indiana (-13.5) vs. Minnesota. Indiana is playing good ball this year, and the Gophs are almost as atrocious as those all yellow unis they wore last week.

Duke (+7.5) vs. Wake. Duke played Wake very tough last year, losing by a point in Winston Salem. Duke is better this year while Wake is not as good, and the game is in Durham this year. Duke has also covered every game this year except the opener.

Kansas St (-3.5) vs. Kansas. This line concerns me after K-St's big win over Texas last week, but I just think they are better than the Jayhawks, especially in the Little Apple. Keep it light though as the line looks screwy.

Oklahoma (-11.5) vs. Texas (in Dallas). This series has produced many blowouts in recent years, and not too many close games, so the trick is to pick the winner and not worry about the points. Oklahoma is the better club this year, and look for them to win big over the 'Horns.

Purdue (+7.5) vs. Ohio State. People will start noticing the Boilers if they pull this off. I think people will start noticing.

LSU (-7) vs. Florida. Just too good, at home, and coming off a lackluster performance. This game smells ugly to me. Look for a big win for the Bayou Bengals.

New Mexico St (+25) at Boise State. The Aggies have the offense to keep it close on the blue turf, and not sure that Boise has the secondary, especially at the safety position, to slow down Mumme's offense.

NFL (Last Week: 4-2; Overall, 11-12, 47.8%)

New Orleans (-3) vs. Carolina. I feel strongly about this one. Carolina is not good. They have QB issues/injuries. New Orleans has had a week to right the ship and their whole season is on the line. Go with the team that made George Rogers the #1 selection in the 1981 NFL draft.

Jacksonville (-2.5) at Kansas City. I guess the theme this week is take the team coming off the bye....

NY Jets (+3.5) at NY Giants. A clear hangover for the Giants. They are not close to as good as they looked last week.

Indianapolis (-10) vs. Tampa Bay. The Bucs have been impressive in the early going, but they are in way, way over their heads this week.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay. This line should be 7. Call this a gut play. I have a feeling Chicago will play much better this week and may win this baby outright.

Buffalo (+10.5) vs. Dallas. Could Dallas be looking ahead to the showdown against the Pats next week? Hmmm. I think the Bills play a great game on Monday night and Trent Edward may make J.P. Losman the next Wally Pipp.

Win or Die Picks - Week 5

Pick Breakdown:

Arizona 5
Baltimore 1
Dallas 16
Green Bay 3
Houston 9
Indianapolis 48
Kansas City 1
New England 70
New Orleans 3
NY Giants 8
Pittsburgh 2
Tennessee 119
Washington 1

Individual Picks:

4 Rings 1 Tennessee
A Keiser Indianapolis
Abela 2 Tennessee
Abshear 2 Tennessee
A-Hole Jets Fan 1 Indianapolis
A-Hole Jets Fan 4 New England
AJ Fratoni 1 Tennessee
Akshon Barclay 1 Indianapolis
Akshon Barclay 3 New England
Alberto Escobedo 2 Indianapolis
Alistair Campbell Indianapolis
Amol Dixit 1 Tennessee
Amol Dixit 4 Green Bay
Angel New England
Anthony Albanese 3 New England
Anthony Albanese 4 Tennessee
Bailey/Holstad 1 Indianapolis
Bakke 3 Indianapolis
Bambi 2 Indianapolis
Ben Stewart Baltimore
Bill D'Elia Tennessee
Bill Webster New England
Bob Landow New England
Bob Van Nortwick New England
BP 1 Tennessee
Brad Stuart 2 Tennessee
Brian Fitzgerald Tennessee
Brian McAndrews Tennessee
Brian Silverio Indianapolis
Bryan Sullivan Tennessee
Buck/Kent New England
C Ooyen Tennessee
CAM New England
Charlie Piccirillo 2 New England
Chris Bassi 2 Tennessee
Chris Dopp 4 Tennessee
Chris Nangle 1 Tennessee
Chris Parliman New England
Clark/Joffe 2 Tennessee
Colleen Miller 2 Tennessee
Coltndarby New England
Connvac 2 Houston
Connvac 3 Tennessee
Coop 1 Indianapolis
CP 2 NY Giants
Craig Borgen Tennessee
Cronin 1 Tennessee
D Bank 1 Indianapolis
D Froney 1 Indianapolis
Damon DeVito Tennessee
Dan/Steve Gold 5 Tennessee
Dan/Steve Gold 6 New England
Dan/Steve Gold 7 Indianapolis
Daniel Hopson 2 Arizona
Darren Dahlman 1 Indianapolis
Darren Dahlman 2 Tennessee
Dave Bryla Tennessee
Dave Kay 1 Tennessee
Dave Mehall 3 Tennessee
Dave S 2 Tennessee
Dave Silbert Tennessee
David Louis Stitzer New England
Denver Brown 1 New England
Dick A 1 Arizona
Dirk 1 Tennessee
Dirk 8 Tennessee
Doug Sargeant 2 New England
DSG 1 Tennessee
Duckboy 2 New England
Dunlavy 1 Tennessee
E Haber 3 New England
Ed Ramirez 1 Dallas
Ed Ramirez 2 Tennessee
Ed Samocki 1 Green Bay
Ed Samocki 2 New England
Ed Welsh 3 Tennessee
Ellis NYC 3 Tennessee
Emory 1 Tennessee
Enio Bencosme 2 Arizona
Eric Haron 2 New England
Eric Heuerman 2 Dallas
Eric Meyers 3 Indianapolis
Falcon 1 New England
Falcon 6 Houston
Fenlin/Stern 2 Tennessee
Frank G 2 Tennessee
Gabe Bodhi 1 Indianapolis
Gabe Bodhi 2 Indianapolis
Gary Jonas 1 Houston
Gatorswonitall 2 Houston
Getson 1 Tennessee
Goldstein - Levine Dallas
Grant K Tennessee
Greg Heff 3 New England
Greg M 1 Kansas City
Greg Marks Tennessee
Gregg 2 Indianapolis
Gretchen Liersaph 1 Tennessee
Griffin/Richmond/Gibbs 1 Tennessee
Griffin/Richmond/Gibbs 2 New England
Harris Roth 4 Houston
Harris Roth 5 Tennessee
Howard Goldberg Tennessee
Iceman 5 New England
Iceman 6 Tennessee
Ike Royster Dallas
Izak Ondre 2 New England
J Taylor 2 Tennessee
Jaco 1 Houston
Jaco 2 New Orleans
Jaco 8 Tennessee
James Mills 2 Tennessee
Jay Soroko 1 New England
Jay Soroko 2 Dallas
Jay Soroko 4 Tennessee
JD 1 Tennessee
JDMS 2 New England
Jeff Resnick 1…NOW KRUG Tennessee
Jeff Resnick 2 Indianapolis
Jeff Rich 1 Tennessee
Jeff Saito 2 Tennessee
Jeremy Hare 1 Indianapolis
Jim Butler Green Bay
Jim Foo 2 Tennessee
Jim Rudofker 1 Tennessee
Jimbo Conbo 2 Tennessee
Jimmy Bredt Tennessee
Joe Cavucci 2 New England
Joe Dansky 3 New England
Joe David 5 NY Giants
Joe Hochauser 3 Tennessee
Joe Pucillo 2 Dallas
Joe Pucillo 4 Tennessee
Joseph Beedon 2 Arizona
Juice 2 Tennessee
Juice 3 Dallas
Juice 4 New England
Juice 5 Tennessee
Juice 6 Indianapolis
Juice 7 New England
K Moran 4 Tennessee
K New 1 Tennessee
Kaplan - Levine 2 Tennessee
Kay Lee Indianapolis
Keith Berger 1 Tennessee
Keith Heier Tennessee
Keller 2 New England
Keller 3 New England
Kelly Krenger 2 New England
Kelly Lanham 1 Indianapolis
Kim P 1 Tennessee
Kim P 2 Indianapolis
KP Tennessee
Kris Wagoner Tennessee
Larry Levin 1 Tennessee
Larry Levin 2 New England
Littman 5 Tennessee
Liza K Indianapolis
LML Indianapolis
Lou Cerota 2 Tennessee
Lubart 2 NY Giants
Lubart 3 Arizona
Lulu Cheng 2 Tennessee
LZHBBS 1 NY Giants
M Lacerenza JPS Tennessee
M Lacerenza M Tennessee
Marshall Dostal 3 New England
Matt Biskner 2 New England
Matt Biskner 4 Tennessee
Matt Wilson 2…NOW MAROLE New England
Matthew Kunkel Tennessee
Max 23 New England
Max Haber 1 New Orleans
Max Haber 7 New England
May Lee 6 Houston
May Lee 7 New England
May Lee 8 Tennessee
Michael Koffler 1 Dallas
Michael Koffler 2 New England
Mike Ferry 2 New England
Mike Hovermann Indianapolis
Mike Ryan 2 Tennessee
Mike Tynan 1 New England
Mitch Watson New Orleans
Mizerny 2 New England
1 Tennessee
2 New England
Neil Weiner 1 New England
Neil Weiner 3 Indianapolis
Nelson Ranco New England
Newsome 1 Tennessee
Nickel B Tennessee
Nicola Espie 1 Tennessee
Niemeyer 1 Tennessee
Niemeyer 3 NY Giants
Nina K New England
Nitin Singhal 1 Dallas
Nomanerz Too Houston
Norm Cooper Tennessee
Nussbaum/Schmolka 1 Tennessee
Nussbaum/Schmolka 2 New England
Old Home 2 New England
PA 1 Indianapolis
PA 3 Dallas
Paul Stitzer Indianapolis
Pete Lupetti Tennessee
Phil Hollrah NY Giants
Pierre Brown 1 Indianapolis
Raivetz 1 Tennessee
Randy/John Tennessee
Randy/Randy C Indianapolis
Ray Attiyah 1 New England
Richard Stanley 3 Dallas
Rick Kaiser 1 Tennessee
Rick L 5 Indianapolis
Rick L 6 Tennessee
Rick L 7 Washington
Rick Woods 2 Tennessee
Ritter 3 Tennessee
Ritter 6 Houston
Rob Kaiser 1 New England
Rob Kaiser 2 Tennessee
Robin Mitchell Tennessee
Roger Levine 2 Pittsburgh
Ron Mexico 1 New England
Ron Mexico 5 New England
Ross Novie 1 NY Giants
Rudo 1 Tennessee
Rudo 2 New England
Ryan Carey 2 Tennessee
Ryan Doheny 1 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 2 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 3 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 4 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 5 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 6 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 7 Indianapolis
Ryan Doheny 8 Indianapolis
Sam Chevadisaikul 1 Tennessee
Scherby 8 Dallas
Scott & Jay Goldsleger 1 Tennessee
Scott & Jay Goldsleger 4 Indianapolis
Scott Lease 2 Dallas
Scott Lease 3 New England
Shawn Marshall Tennessee
Silver Fox 2…NOW MONKS Tennessee
Sonnenberg 2 Tennessee
Sozbolt Tennessee
Stacey Tracton 1 Dallas
Stacey Tracton 3 New England
Stephen Moss 1 Indianapolis
Steve Stovall 2 Tennessee
Steven Immergut 1 NY Giants
Streetsmart Tennessee
Stuart Chase 1 New England
Stuart Chase 3 Tennessee
Stuart Erickson 2 Tennessee
Susan Walters Tennessee
Sword New England
Ted Price 3 New England
The Bandits Tennessee
The Hanford Dixon Experience Indianapolis
The Hanford Dixon Redux Indianapolis
Timmy Gatz 1 Tennessee
Todd & Regan 1 New England
Todd & Regan 3 Indianapolis
Todd & Regan 4 Dallas
Todd Turchin 1 New England
Todd Turchin 4 Tennessee
Tom H 1 Indianapolis
Tom Huang 3 New England
Tom Huang 4 Tennessee
Tom Keegans 2 New England
Tony Sollenbarger Tennessee
Touchdown Tommy Tennessee
True Dat 1 Indianapolis
True Dat 2 Tennessee
True Dat 3 New England
Val Brochard 4 Pittsburgh
Von 1 Tennessee
Von 3 New England
Wayne Kimmel 1 New England
Wells/Bartos/Sudman 1 Indianapolis
WJO 2 New England
WJO 4 New England
Yacker 1 Tennessee