Duke/BC preview, Stitzer Jet rambling

Duke plays Boston College tonight in their house. This promises to be a difficult game for the Blue Devils. Boston College is finally playing like they should have from the start of the year, as the second best team in the ACC. They have had this game circled since the schedules came out for their first season in the league. Their fans will be juiced, their players will be ready. Here is how the game shakes out.

BC is a tough match up for Duke, who really does not have anyone to match up with the size and quickness of Craig Smith, their best player. He is too quick on the exterior for either Josh McRoberts (who will probably cover him most of the night) or Shelden Williams (who won’t, as they will try to keep him out of foul trouble), and too big and strong for DeMarcus Nelson on the inside. Besides, Duke will need Nelson to play a lot of minutes at a high level, and to neutralize BC’s other start, big guard Jared Dudley, when the Eagles have the ball.

When Duke has the ball, BC has the inside size and toughness to at least slow down Shelden Williams, so it really comes down to two things: can J.J. Redick have a great game, which is the norm these days, and can DeMarcus Nelson not only play well defensively but provide some match-up problems on the offensive side of the ball. If they could get their other players, Melchionni, Paulus and Dock, Coop’s favorite player, to hit the open threes, which BC does not defend well.

BC will slow the game down and make it a rugged, half court pace. Duke likes to get out and run, but Coach K always has his team ready for different styles, so they will hang in there. The difference comes down to if the Devils can a) keep Shelden out of foul trouble to help off side, and b) score effectively from the perimeter. Look for a close game that could come down to the last possession. And in that case, never pick against J.J.: Duke 73, BC 71

In other news, I missed the State of the union speech last night, as I was in the midst of a battle trying to get my two year old to sleep from 7:30 until 10:00. These battles are epic, and deserve their own blog column at some point, especially before he is old enough to read and write a retort on his own blog, or to beat me up!

Stitzer has some thoughts on the Jets new coaching staff and the media’s heavy influence on things. Personally, I think he puts too much emphasis on luck, and not enough on well run organizations, but here are his thoughts (in addition, he touches on a couple of items but does not elaborate, that would make great fodder for columns of their own…if we could get Stitzer to do a real, full fledged column on the history of the Jets and one on the State of the NFL, the world would be a better place):

If the JETS do not improve in the next 2-3 years, the Media, as they love to past-post, will blast everyone in the organization for putting together such a young, inexperienced coaching staff. If 2005 was just an injury-plagued anomaly, then Mangini is a genius, the Assistants are innovators, and the Front Office is savvy. In today's Free-Agency and Salary Cap era, it is much more important to be lucky and healthy than it is to be good and deep. what is the point of developing depth? so another team can sign the reserves you developed? The NFL was a much better product pre-1990.

Case in point: Bellichick was a dummy in Cleveland, but then all of a sudden is a genius because Mo Lewis laid out Bledsoe, the NFL jobbed the Raiders in the tuck rule game, the zebras swallowed their whistles against the Colts in 2003, and Andy Reid refused to go to a hurry-up offense?

The JETS have been getting screwed by the Refs, with the exception of the Vinny QB sneak call (which of course prompted the return of replay - yet where the **** was that when the Lions DB was lying out of bounds with the ball that knocked us out of the 1997 playoffs). So, unless we expect the genius protégé Mangini to get the same lucky breaks as boring Bill, we are kidding ourselves if we think he is savior.

In summary, with the talent spread evenly throughout the league, it is a matter of who stays healthy and gets a few breaks to win close games.